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cieldumortModerator
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Special Central Pacific Forecast Lounge: Double Trouble Hurricanes Iselle & Julio
      #95176 - Sat Aug 02 2014 12:04 AM

Rarely seen incredibly active Pacific from west to east this week.

Two systems in particular need to be closely watched by the Hawaiian Islands. One, now a hurricane, and the other, a developing very large tropical low which already has the makings of a tropical depression.

In the image below, I have notated just the Central & Eastern Pacific features, with two of the tropical lows in these basins already named: Central Pacific Genevieve & Eastern Pacific Hurricane Iselle.

Genevieve is passing safely by well south of the islands. It is the eastern Pacific hurricane, and the very large incipient tropical depression behind it, that have the potential to reach the islands later next week, and they may do so with some unusual intensity, as the environment looks like it could be quite favorable.




Early model runs are nearly unanimous in bringing two potent tropical cyclones very close or directly over the islands around the 7th to 10th of August. It is rare that you see this kind of unanimity so far in advance without at least a reasonable degree of verification, and given that the Pacific has been on fire so far this year, and tropical cyclone forecasting going out to two weeks has become much better over the past few years, these forecasts may be worth taking note of.

ECMWF "European"


GFS "American"


Multiple Models & Official NHC 5 Day


Edited Title to reflect addition of newly-named Julio, as well as our decision to use this forum as a de facto East Pac Forecast Lounge for these two tropical cyclones, as they may both impact the state of Hawaii.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Rarely Seen Incredibly Active Pacific: Hurricane Iselle & Hawaii [Re: cieldumort]
      #95177 - Sat Aug 02 2014 01:24 AM

Iselle, or its post-tropical form, is expected to pass just to the south of the Hawaiian Islands on Friday, August 8th, and Invest 97E, which is expected to eventually become Hurricane Julio, should pass just to the north of the Islands on Monday, August 11th. If this should actually occur I think that it will be the first time that the Hawaiian Islands would have experienced two tropical cyclones within a three day period.

Next week if the threat to the Islands continues to develop, we'll start a thread in the Storm Forum. Below are some links to monitor the progress of these systems as they get closer to the Islands. Use this thread like a "Forecast Lounge" for your own comments on these systems.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaii Weather Radar Loop

SSD Hawaii Satellite Images

Hawaiian Weather Reports

ED


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vpbob21
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Re: Rarely Seen Incredibly Active Pacific: Hurricane Iselle & Hawaii [Re: cieldumort]
      #95185 - Sun Aug 03 2014 11:02 PM

It's crazy busy out there. It all seemed to start with Wali a couple weeks ago and it hasn't let up since. About a week ago there were 4 systems noted on the CPHC's TWO which is ridiculous for that basin.

Iselle and TD 10-E / future Julio - the models seem to have reversed on these 2 systems with Iselle now progged to move over or just north of the islands and TD 10-E expected to pass south a couple days later. The cool water east of Hawaii tends to protect them from strong storms but the NHC is still forecasting about a 50-60 mph TS as Iselle reaches Hawaii. My thinking is that might be a little aggressive but we'll have to wait and see. TD 10-E / future Julio could be a powerful hurricane as it passes the islands depending on how far south it can stay. High surf on the south facing beaches would likely be the biggest threat.

Genevieve - if this system could have stayed classified all of the past few days it might have had a chance to approach the record of 1994's John for longest lasting TC. As it stands if it can survive the next couple days Genevieve figures to have an impressively long run. The GFS develops it into a potent typhoon after it crosses the date line and finally recurves it east of Japan near the end of its run. Hopefully it can avoid all land areas, although it may come pretty close to Wake Island in about a week.


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berrywr
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Re: Rarely Seen Incredibly Active Pacific: Hurricane Iselle & Hawaii [Re: vpbob21]
      #95186 - Mon Aug 04 2014 12:28 AM

As long as it and likely Julio are a threat to Hawaii, I'll cover it over on Facebook; keep an eye on Iselle; she's what we call an Annular or Axisymetric Hurricane...think of it as truck tire or doughnut in appearance; these systems have a way of holding on to intensity due to some rather non-tropical mechanism alongside tropical ones; she's a thing of beauty on satellite and almost perfectly round.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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CoconutCandy
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Re: Special East Pac Forecast Lounge: Potential Double Trouble Iselle & Julio [Re: cieldumort]
      #95188 - Mon Aug 04 2014 07:22 PM

Aloha Friends! And Mahalos for Posting re: "Special East Pac Forecast Lounge: Potential Double Trouble Iselle & Julio"

It is certainly shaping up to be an interesting year! Latest Computer Models (as of Noon, Hawaii Standard Time, Monday, Aug. 3rd) now has Current CAT 4 Hurricane 'Iselle' weakening (fortunately) to a mid-range Tropical Storm of 50 kts. or so, while passing through or very near to, the Main Hawaiian Islands, sometime by this Thursday and Friday. Needless to say, Hawaii is positively abuzz with talk of, and preparation for, this storm.

And, of even *Greater Concern*, as alluded to above, is soon-to-be Hurricane 'Julio', which is expected to follow a track remarkably similar to 'Iselle', but Maintaining itself as a (possibly intensifying?) CAT 2 Hurricane upon it's Approach in the Islands.

That would be Very Unfortunate, of course, as Hawaii is NOT well prepared for a Cyclone of that Magnitude, and it's been Many Decades since Maui & Oahu have had a Direct Impact from a Hurricane. More later ....




Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 07 2014 12:11 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Special Central Pacific Forecast Lounge: Double Trouble Hurricanes Iselle & Julio [Re: cieldumort]
      #95194 - Thu Aug 07 2014 12:01 AM

Things look bad, bad, and worse for the Hawaiin Islands, as both Iselle & Julio continue being forecast to impact the islands, with at least moderate tropical storm intensity.

Hawaii has had only three direct hits from hurricanes since 1950, the last being Hurricane Iniki in 1992, which tragically claimed 6 lives, and leveled over $3 billion in 2014 USD worth of damage.

Iniki caught CPHC very off guard, approaching from the south, and maintaining its intensity. Most tropical cyclones approach Hawaii from the east, and weaken rapidly, usually even to the point of being declared remnants.

While official records show that only one tropical storm, and zero hurricanes, have ever hit the islands from the east, the combination of easily saturated ground and mountainous terrain can result in significant flooding during the passage of merely a remnant tropical low, and both residents and vacationers should now be bringing their tropical cyclone readiness plans to completion, as this will likely be a double whammy.

Earlier today, Wed, Aug 6, this breathtaking satellite image was taken by GOES-West, capturing all three central & eastern Pacific hurricanes. I can not recall the last time I have ever seen an image quite like this out there.



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