Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Rad....I assume you are speaking of "IT" when you say he's still alive? I hear we are to receive a "message" from him this week.
I DARE HIM. I may be little, but I'm Irish. And I have a temper. And I'm patriotic. So, let him come within 10 ft of me and he'd be BEGGING for mercy. Of course, he won't get it. ;-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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if that complex on the texas coast was 500 miles southeast of where it is, they'd be scheduling a recon and putting out special tropical disturbance statements. as is it will just be a rainstorm. some thunderstorm activity with the trough splaying off the east coast.. when the advancing ridge leans over it maybe the shear will let up a little and give it a chance.. for now it's shredded.
HanKFranK aiken, SC 1713z29june
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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No Colleen, I am talking about the great bow hunter Fred Bear .
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Hey HF, haven't responded to your posts in a while, but I agree with what you said about the Texas system. One of the 's yesterday said, "Thunderstorm activity associated with this system has already moved into Southern Texas." This tells me if it was over water, it might have sparked some more serious interest. 
It's been pouring like crazy every afternoon here in C. Florida. Lots of not-so-great afternoons (weather wise), but we need the rain. 
Okay, now. Why am I only rated as a 3-star user?!  I know that whoever did this was only "messing around" with the rating stars on my personal profile. 
Of course, it could just be a conspiracy of some type! 
Maybe reading my 2002 hurricane season theory on the Storm Forum will change your mind!  
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Yo Kev,
You are wise beyond your years and earned a 5 from me. That averages you up to 4.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Hey, Kevin! I just voted you a 5 star. You certainly have some good posts and deserve a 5 star rating. Steve, I think I was the first one to vote for you , and of course, I gave you a 5 star. The thing that puzzles me is how I'M still a 5 star rating. Then again, I only have 3 total rates so it is easier to keep that rating. You BOTH should be rated higher than me; there are alot of people on this site that should be rated higher than me, like Colleen, etc. The only exception is maybe John from South Florida......I think I may beat him out by a 1/2 star.....HA! HA! HA! 
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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No sooner did I post this and suddenly my rating has slipped to a 4 Star. That is o.k. with me because I should actually be a 3 so I'm Still happy with the 4.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Thanks Steve! 
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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alright, enough june already. there's a weak low in association with a decaying front off the southeast coast, sheared and unimpressive, and that's the only story in town. a couple models are keeping the disturbed weather around off the coast, but doing nothing special with it. slightly more interesting topic is the current westpac systems. they both sprang up the other day and are headed west and northwest, projected to get quite strong. on one hand this tells us that the quiet westpac may be coming to life, more in line with an el nino type situation. on the other a big ridge is driving this systems west, and it should teleconnect with the bermuda ridge being solid. or at least i think thats what bastardi has described several times. maybe he'll mention it on monday.
HanKFranK aiken, SC 2235z30june
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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With your next post you'll be the site's first "weather guru"... congratulations... hehe
Still not sure why you have only a 4-star rating... your posts are as good as most on the board... Colleen, Kevin and a few others are also rated to low IMO... go figure...
Well June has come and gone with little tropical to speak of... The GOM and BOC both had plenty of convection during the month but shear precluded anything from developing... July also is not a very active month for tropical development... but more so than June... Nothing immenent on the horizon but maybe one or so systems will develop during the month... time will tell... Still think it will be a slow month ..... waiting for the August rush when the regular season starts... June and July are basically our "preseason".... for tropical development....
Edited by Frank P (Sun Jun 30 2002 11:57 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Well now I'm a three star in lieu of a five star.... got court-marshalled and didn't even know it... I always wondered how the star ratings work... My personal opinion is that it really doesn't add anything to the board...
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Hey,Frank, I'm with you on these ratings. I can't believe you are only three stars. There must be someone out there goofing around and just putting a bunch of 1 stars on everyone. I got your back,though. You get 5 stars from me!
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Hey whats up evryone ne one notice the wave east of the antillies it seems pretty impressive ive been tracking it for a while maby it might do something down the road??
Hey frank your at 4 stars now
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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1200 UTC (8 a.m. edt) 7/1/2002 ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL OUTLOOK
An area of convection has developed in the northwest Bahamas. While upper winds are becoming more favorable, there is little surface organization. Therefore, any development would be slow to occur.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.
Forecaster: Ortt
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Folks, I'm noticing some slight pressure falls off the Florida East Coast. Looks like shear isn't that bad either. Any opionins from our 5 star folks?
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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did a little more research on the mess east of florida. surface winds are sort of a scramble, but there is a general broad turning to the convection in the area.. this is part of a strung out upper feature and frontal remnant that is getting kinked off while a ridge amplifies some to the northwest... it has a good chance of stirring something at the surface, as it keeps refiring convection.
pretty much every model i found showed a convective mass sliding northeast, mrf/avn family wants to shunt it out into the trough forecast to dig in with the stalled upper system currently over the canadian maritimes. this is typical mrf--phase every bit of tropical energy northeast. but all have the same general idea, only less so. pretty much every model registers a weak low with it.. so with confidence that a low will organize, need to watch to see if the ball gets rolling and a system starts to organize.
throw a tropical storm off the east coast by mid week and things get a little more complicated than what forecast models are showing. area needs to be watched, say chances around 20% of something developing.
read bastardi today, he did mention the typhoons. the one in the east recurves, the one near the continent goes in, or so the philosophy goes. he tied it to the stalled upper system over texas, that old piece that retrograded by here ten days ago and gave us all of that rainy weather in the southeast. this could be the first little pulse of el nino trying to assert itself, kicking up the low latitude westerlies and playing against the trough splitting-retrograding pattern. i was sort of counting on the trough splitting to give us a landfall or two say before september 1.. should the global pattern start to warp into + then there's more cause for a less active season with more shear and booted systems.. but a weak el nino in fits and starts could make for a very wishy washy sort of performance by this years hurricanes, when they show up... thats what i'm putting the poker chips on. either if things swing too far the el nino way then the east coast is probably out of the woods.
geez i just wrote war and peace... typing requires so little effort..
im not registered so i dont get those star ratings, and wouldnt put much stock into them if i did. might as well ask yall what you think of my incredibly long posts that have been appearing on this site for about two years now.. kind of wonder what you all make of them.
a'ite
HanKFranK aiken, SC 1921z01july
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Well the weather station on grand bahama island has east winds, the weather station at juno and ft.lauderdale have nnw winds what this means im not sure right now it could be just outflow from thunderstorms or there could be something trying to get going right over the warm gulf stream im tending to go with the gulf stream idea scence it has been raining non stop all day ill have to check later to see if winds reamain in the same direction. Preassure reamins high they are dropping ever so slightly after a consitent rising early this morning porbally from convection firing and dying. All in All its qiuet out there, just wait and see
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I voted for, "rectory mean haunted house with coconut palms and judy garland."
You forgot to mention that July is the 7th month, and G is the seventh letter. Liza sing in G on my birthday. Hahahahahaha.
Actually, the longer the better. I'm off to SW NY State to hang with my mother-in-law for the next 6-7 days. I'll see ya'll next Monday or Tuesday.
Yours truly, The First Guru AKA the person who wastes the most amount of time at work,
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'm still laughing about that poll....I was one of I think two who voted "uh". LOLOL! ;-) I noticed that convection firing up this morning, but haven't checked it out since I got home from work. Yes, that's right! I have a job! I work at the church office where I go to church. Only temporary though. ;-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Just checked a couple 5:00 buoys in the East Caost FLorida area and pressures have dropped to their lowest in past couple days. Thoughts?
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