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The area in the central Gulf of Mexico has a 20% chance to develop in the next 7 days. Likely to bring rain over Florida this weekend.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 202 (Nicole) , Major: 244 (Ian) Florida - Any: 202 (Nicole) Major: 244 (Ian)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: gulf, next 3-4 days [Re: Unregistered User]
      #15254 - Sat Jun 12 2004 04:05 AM

Perhaps there is a small chance of tropical storm formation - as you said there is a resemblance to Bill of last year when it was forming. Also, has anyone noticed the area of convection that has flared up off the coast of NC? I doubt it will come to anything, but it's something that's only appeared in the last few hours.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: gulf, next 3-4 days [Re: James88]
      #15257 - Sat Jun 12 2004 07:01 AM

Joe B, in a Saturday update special, thinks it's going to go. In a paraphrase, he think's the system will develop an eastern side that has tropical storm or near tropical storm winds and should be a "typical" June type hybrid. He thinks it will come up between 90 and 92 west Monday afternoon or night with rainfall in SE LA of up to 5" by Tuesday am (his scheduled arrival time). He doesn't think the west or center will have much if any action, but that the Eastern side will be nasty. He doesn't want to speculate if it's going to be named or not, but cautioned everyone from SE LA to Appalachicola to keep an eye on this. He referenced Bill and Allison where 36 hours before landfdall, there wasn't much idea in the public realm. The biggest effects will be rain, but he expects tropical storm conditions east of whereever the center goes in, but can't yet say if it will close off or not.

Food for thought.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve Hirschberg
Unregistered




Re: gulf, next 3-4 days [Re: Steve]
      #15258 - Sat Jun 12 2004 07:49 AM

Convection is beginning to bloom over the southern GOM now. Let's see how it sustains/builds with the UL winds. Front pushing down the eastern seaboard too. Let's see how they interact. CHeers!!

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: gulf, next 3-4 days [Re: Steve Hirschberg]
      #15259 - Sat Jun 12 2004 08:17 AM

Will it looks like one of the elements has been removed the shear .That coupled with the fact it will have some time over the warm waters of the GOM something might happen.The question now is will it make to surface?The blower has been on full out there thus far and it looks to be off for the time being.I hope it goes, little wind storms like Bill are cool.

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
93L in GOM [Re: javlin]
      #15260 - Sat Jun 12 2004 08:51 AM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Well here is the invest for the GOM area.Looks like a surface low is trying to form.Let's see what happens but it will be slow to develop if it does so.Rain will be the main threat for the gulf coast even if it turns into a TD or even a minimal tropical storm.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: 93L in GOM [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15261 - Sat Jun 12 2004 09:14 AM

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/04061212

Here are the first model runs for 93L that look interesting.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 93L in GOM [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15262 - Sat Jun 12 2004 09:22 AM

This situation gets more interesting by the hour. There are a few conditions in the Gulf that favour development, but then others that do not. Time will tell, I suppose.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 93L in GOM [Re: James88]
      #15263 - Sat Jun 12 2004 09:51 AM

Jeez, I go to sleep for a few hours and look what happens...

>>> LI phil, if you get your system, i'll buy you a beer for your lucky call. but you've got to come south to get it.

HF, LOL! I'm still not convinced this will amount to anything but I'm sure as h--- rooting it on! And, hey, I'm willing to drive anywhere south of the mason dixon line for a cold beverage

Two birthday shouts: Jamiewx (go check out his webpage: [url=http://metcenter.home.comcast.net/] and Clyde W.

OK, gotta go check out accuwx & NRL.

http://metcenter.home.comcast.net/

Cheers & Peace (for now)

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: 93L in GOM [Re: LI Phil]
      #15264 - Sat Jun 12 2004 11:30 AM

This is a little interesting... a possible recon flight Sunday? I doubt it but we will see

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 93L in GOM [Re: LI Phil]
      #15265 - Sat Jun 12 2004 11:39 AM

Quote:

I'm still not convinced this will amount to anything but I'm sure as h--- rooting it on!




I wouldn't write this sytem off just yet, it might surprise us. After all, weather is unpredictable! I tried to have a closer look on visible satellite, but NRL seem to be having problems again

P.S. The system that moved off the Carolinas yesterday still looks interesting. I very much doubt it will develop into anything at all, but convection is currently firing up there. Still, for the moment my attention is focused squarely on the Gulf


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 93L in GOM [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #15266 - Sat Jun 12 2004 11:47 AM

Looks like the NHC may be giving this sytem a little more potential for development:-

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH.

How things have changed since yesterday!


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Model Runs [Re: James88]
      #15274 - Sat Jun 12 2004 02:06 PM

I noticed that there is a distinct difference in the model runs. Some have this system coming west to Texas and some have it going to the east towards Florida. I guess what that means is that everyone along the whole gulf coast should pay attention.

SoonerShawn (a.k.a. ShawnS)


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Bubba777
Unregistered




Re: another low in Caribbean [Re: Rabbit]
      #16541 - Thu Jul 22 2004 09:34 AM

Quote:

looks like a low trying to form at about 10N/78 or 79W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html




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