F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | >> (show all)
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: JB's take on the Carib [Re: LI Phil]
      #15185 - Thu Jun 10 2004 08:47 PM

Hey Phil,
Sorry about the dup post, my bad.
lol


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
James88
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: JB's take on the Carib [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #15186 - Thu Jun 10 2004 09:02 PM

Whatever happens with this system, it certainly gives us something to watch. It seems to be holding together some form of organisation, but it remains to be seen how long this will last.

P.S. This system is probably the best chance for your June 14th guess Phil. Who knows - you might get lucky


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: JB's take on the Carib [Re: James88]
      #15187 - Thu Jun 10 2004 09:10 PM

TG - actually now people won't have to jump to the previous page to view it.

>>> P.S. This system is probably the best chance for your June 14th guess Phil. Who knows - you might get lucky

Well, I am sort of counting on it. I doubt it will develop, for all the reasons listed in past posts. However, I will be watching it...maybe someone can hop on hurricane hunter flight and sprinkle some pixie dust into it

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Still no mention of development [Re: LI Phil]
      #15188 - Thu Jun 10 2004 09:35 PM

TWO issued at 5:30pm, contains no changes, still states that no development is expected. Also I checked the wind shear analysis and the shear looks to be reasonably weak and forecast to remain so during the next 48 hours. Maybe a circulation could work down to the surface, but now the only inhibitor could be its proximity to land.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
James88
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Still no mention of development [Re: Jamiewx]
      #15189 - Thu Jun 10 2004 09:43 PM

That proximity to land is a problem - just give it a couple of days and see what state the system is in when it reaches the open Gulf. Perhaps conditions will become a little more favourable, but as mentioned before, it seems fairly unlikely.

On another note, check out the apparent circulation in the system off the Carolinas.

Hurricane Visible Loop


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Birthday Shout [Re: James88]
      #15191 - Thu Jun 10 2004 11:05 PM

Happy birthday to "June C." Just noticed it on the calendar. How did your parents come up with your name?

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
GFS picks something from east atlantic [Re: LI Phil]
      #15199 - Fri Jun 11 2004 02:08 AM

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/18/gfsslp.html

However this is the only model that is showing this interesting loop of a weak low moving thru the deep tropics from the eastern atlantic.I will believe it when I see that low cranking up if it happens because it is early to see things developing from that part of the world.Let's see if other models join the GFS.

Edited by Cycloneye (Fri Jun 11 2004 02:21 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: GFS picks something from east atlantic [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15204 - Fri Jun 11 2004 12:02 PM

GFS.Good.For.S_ _ t. However the AVN takes a low near the Yucatan North to West Panhadle of Florida. The morning Sat is looking interesting near the Yucatan.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wild cat
Unregistered




Re: GFS picks something from east atlantic [Re: LONNY307]
      #15205 - Fri Jun 11 2004 12:57 PM

Is that an actual tropical storm or hurricane that would cross Florida or just a low, because it doesnt look very strong on that model.

I thought the wave going all the way across the atlantic was more interesting.

How strong would that low be and do any models this morning show the low again?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: GFS picks something from east atlantic [Re: LONNY307]
      #15206 - Fri Jun 11 2004 02:32 PM

>>>GFS.Good.For.S_ _ t. Lonny LOL!!!

I guess that's similar to the "MRF" label of "Most Ridiculous Forecast".

I don't have many "high hopes" for development, although this system will surely bring a boatload of rain to the SE gulf coast. Whether it can develop much beyond a deep low is the question. Won't yet write it off, but aren't expecting much strengthening at this moment. Still, gotta be watched.

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Fireball Away sir... [Re: wild cat]
      #15210 - Fri Jun 11 2004 03:12 PM

The "Mother Country" has just launched...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
Re: GFS picks something from east atlantic [Re: LI Phil]
      #15211 - Fri Jun 11 2004 03:19 PM

Just my opinion...but I don't see much potential at all beyond a rainmaker for the south...


IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 11 June 2004 - 11:10 AM EDT

The most prominent disturbance in the Atlantic Basin today is the mid to upper level low in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Yesterday, the interaction between this upper low and a passing tropical wave generated deep convection, but today the wave has moved well on out of the area and into the eastern Pacific. The upper low has not moved, and the convection that is still present in the northwest Caribbean Sea is thus completely associated with this upper low. Tropical cyclone development cannot occur in this type of situation, as a low pressure needs to be present at the surface and not at the higher altitudes of the troposphere.

The upper low is currently moving slowly northwestward, a track that will take it across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico in the next 48 hours. No development will occur in this time frame due to the reason we mentioned above and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the low is in the central Gulf of Mexico, it does not look like the potential for development will be that high. First of all, even if a surface low does form underneath as the GFS and CMC show, the upper low will still be above it. This will keep any surface low pressure that develops from becoming purely tropical. Secondly, the system will be moving rather quickly to the north along the western prehiphery of the subtropical ridge, giving it only a limited amount of time to strengthen before it comes ashore between New Orleans and Pensacola in about 96 hours. To add to the problems, a shortwave trough is progged to dip through the southern states towards the second half of the forecast period. This will quickly induce strong southerly shear over the system as it closes in on the coast.

It should be noted that although Allison in 2001 and Bill in 2003 formed in part from an upper low similar to this one, the conditions in this case are not the same as with those 2 storms. For Bill, the upper low that was present when it initially formed quickly faded and gave way to an upper high, which allowed Bill to intensify and transform into a purely tropical system. For both of the storms, conditions were conducive as they approached the coast, which allowed Allison to form and Bill to further intensify. In this system's case, the upper low should stay above any surface low that might form, and the shortwave trough will prevent any last minute intensification or cause weakening before it reaches the coast.

Therefore, the window of opportunity for this to develop is very small, practically non-existent. No development is expected, though it should still spread heavy rains over portions of the south.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is being sheared apart by strong westerly winds. Another tropical wave has just exited the coast of Africa with moderate convection. Dry subsidence due to the seasonably southward positioned Azores High and marginally cool ocean temperatures will prevent this or any other waves at this time of the year from developing.

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
James88
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Fireball Away sir... [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #15212 - Fri Jun 11 2004 03:33 PM

Yet another impressive tropical wave. Still a few weeks though before conditions will improve. At this time of the year they get ripped apart as fast as they form. Looks like we'll have to wait until at least next week for anything with potential. Accuweather doesn't expect anything:-

"Tropical waves moving through the Atlantic and Caribbean remain rather disorganized and are unlikely to develop through the weekend."

Wasn't it a year ago today that TD 2 formed? Talk about an active early season!

P.S. - Your potential first storm is actually looking a little healthier at the moment, Phil. The TWO says that storm formation is not expected, but then weather is unpredictable. That's what makes it interesting


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bobbi
Unregistered




Carib [Re: James88]
      #15213 - Fri Jun 11 2004 03:46 PM

Hi, wishing you all a nice weekend. Rest up before the real action happens.

My main concern with the SW Carib or Mid Carib area is that the area keeps firing far from the supposed center to the east of it. If you watch the sats (all of them) you see there is something firing to the east of it and its not being blown off there by shear. Nothing seems to be able to stack regarding a circulation and the eastern area fights the western area in terms of intensity. Not a good sign. Though, things could change down the line when and if it goes somewhere.

Nice wave off Africa, too soon not because its June but because of the position of the high and mostly water temps. They come off nice but the heat isn't high enough.

Enjoy the weekend everyone, Bobbi
may have come off nice but sequel will be "another one bites the dust" though I would love to be proven wrong there


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Possible Alex [Re: James88]
      #15214 - Fri Jun 11 2004 03:46 PM

>>> P.S. - Your potential first storm is actually looking a little healthier at the moment, Phil. The TWO says that storm formation is not expected, but then weather is unpredictable. That's what makes it interesting

After reading Rob Mann's excellent analysis, I'm not getting my hopes up. The system will probably be just a big rain maker. Still, Allison & Bill formed under similar, though more favorable, conditions.

BTW, I'm being moved to tears over RWR's memorial service. He was a good friend to the Brits, James88, and we can certainly thank him for bringing about the demise of the Evil Empire (no, not the Yankees, the Soviets).

Peace & Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
Re: Fireball Away sir... [Re: James88]
      #15215 - Fri Jun 11 2004 03:47 PM

Yeah, we were all looking at TD2 near 40W at this time last year. Very uncommon to get development that far east so early in the season.

On the subject of this Caribbean disturbance, just shoot me if it develops. My June stats are SOOOO against it LOL. Then again you know how the weather can be.

But in all seriousness, I still don't think this will become anything at all (other than a rainmaker). As long as there's a low pressure in the UPPER levels, we won't be dealing with a purely tropical system. And there is a chance that the upper low will fade away by Day 3...but by then any surface low will be starting to experience strong shear from a shortwave trough. Still bears watching (as with any disturbance) but nothing to get exicted about IMO.

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
James88
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Fireball Away sir... [Re: Rob_M]
      #15216 - Fri Jun 11 2004 03:53 PM

This certainly seems to be one of those years with a slow start to the season - but as others have mentioned we could have a very busy September.

P.S. You're right Phil, it is a very moving service. Even though I'm not an American it is easy to see what an all-round great guy he was. May he rest in peace.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Carl
Unregistered




Re: Fireball Away sir... [Re: Rob_M]
      #15217 - Fri Jun 11 2004 04:19 PM

Check out the southwest wind at Minatitlan on the Yucatan Peninsula. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/EWX/SWRMX

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Carl
Unregistered




Re: Fireball Away sir... [Re: Carl]
      #15218 - Fri Jun 11 2004 04:44 PM

Forget the last post--thought Minatitlan was located on the east coast of the Yucatan, but instead it is on the west coast around 94 degrees, which makes the southwest wind much less significant.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
nw caribbean [Re: Carl]
      #15222 - Fri Jun 11 2004 07:17 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
there are two interesting notes on this satellite image:
1) there appears to be a mid-level low forming at about 20N
over the yucatan
2) the southeast section of the western low appears to have
high clouds going to the south, which may be a forming high level anticyclone

remember in 2001, tropical storm barry formed from the interaction of an upper low with a wave

Edited by Rabbit (Fri Jun 11 2004 07:19 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 189 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: ****
Topic views: 60340

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center