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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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accuwx tropical discussion [Re: Rabbit]
      #15223 - Fri Jun 11 2004 07:41 PM

No matter what happens with this wave over the weekend, it will certainly be interesting:

"Tropical waves moving through the Atlantic remain rather disorganized and are unlikely to develop into anything important through the weekend. However, the interaction of an upper level low near the Yucatan and an approaching wave near Jamaica could lead to the formation of a low pressure area just north of the Yucatan Sunday or Sunday night. That low pressure area could then become an organized tropical system early next week.

Weather maps show an upper level low nearly stationary near the Yucatan. A tropical wave along 94 west interacted with this upper level system yesterday causing an expanded area of clouds, rain and thunderstorms. That wave has moved on to the west and is no longer having an impact on the northwest Caribbean. However, another tropical wave along 80 west is moving west at about 10-15kts. This wave will interact with the upper level system near the Yucatan. This will maintain a large area of rain and thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean through Saturday. Model output from the U.S. global model and the Canadian global model are showing an area of low pressure forming north of the Yucatan on Sunday. If such development occurs then there's some chance this low might become an organized tropical system by Monday. At this point much of this is speculation since development of this nature is very difficult to forecast. However, tropical formation in this area is common in June. So, that is another reason why there is concern for development."

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil
( Monday?)

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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javlin
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Re: nw caribbean [Re: Rabbit]
      #15224 - Fri Jun 11 2004 07:41 PM

I saw thought also on the Vis pics.The system is in the backyard now got a look at it.Looks good no matter what views you look at.I still do not know if will make it to the surface.Seems to be moving in a NNW direction and the wind shear seems to be lessening.

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Rabbit
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Re: nw caribbean [Re: javlin]
      #15225 - Fri Jun 11 2004 07:58 PM

just checked some of the forecast models, a few forecast a storm-intensity low near Panama City in 72 hrs and a low near 10n/50w in 120h

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LI Phil
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Re: nw caribbean [Re: Rabbit]
      #15226 - Fri Jun 11 2004 08:17 PM

Yeah, a couple of models are picking up on. In today's missive, JB rambled on about the system. HE doesn't think it will develop into TS Alex, but did think "if we get an actual low level center once this gets past the Yucatan, chances are well will have a system that causes heavy rains with tropical storm force winds in its east side, affecting the central gulf coast early next week."

Then he postulated that even if the above happens, NHC might not even assign it a name (???). Now, if this thing does develop, and has t/s force winds, how could it not be named? Especially if it is that close to the US? What's up with that?

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Re: nw caribbean [Re: LI Phil]
      #15228 - Fri Jun 11 2004 08:23 PM

This situation seems similar to that sytem that hit the Dominican Republic a couple of weeks back - a lot of people seemed to think that was a tropical storm, and that it should have been assigned a name. Could this be shaping into a similar situation? We will really have to watch this system closely.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: nw caribbean [Re: LI Phil]
      #15229 - Fri Jun 11 2004 08:32 PM

It does seem to have some staying power. I think the AVN/GFS is pushing it a bit but if it's still around in the next day maybe we will get some tropical model runs on it.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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LI Phil
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NRL Update [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #15232 - Fri Jun 11 2004 08:56 PM

I'd been having trouble accessing the NRL site all day. I finally got on, but there's a message saying satellite imagery will not be updated until late Monday afternoon. I wonder if that means they will not be able to issue any new invests? If anyone knows, by all means share with the board.

Check that...that was only for the Typhoon Chanthu link. Other links say the "satellite imagery is being slowly updated."

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Jun 11 2004 08:58 PM)


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James88
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Re: NRL Update [Re: LI Phil]
      #15233 - Fri Jun 11 2004 09:00 PM

I suppose they could still issue invests, because there are a lot of satellites up there above us. But then that's just my opinion - they might not be able to. I don't want to sound as though I'm overreacting, and I'm not saying that they don't do a good job, but these frequent site problems are beginning to get quite annoying.

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DustDuchess
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Re: accuwx tropical discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #15235 - Fri Jun 11 2004 10:17 PM

YEah, but, is it going to rain in Florida?

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LI Phil
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Re: accuwx tropical discussion [Re: DustDuchess]
      #15236 - Fri Jun 11 2004 10:32 PM

>>> YEah, but, is it going to rain in Florida?

Mary, LOL!

Doesn't it rain every day in Florida? Seriously tho, we're talking about a system that is probably 3 days away, so everyone from New Orleans (Shout out to Steve) to Tampa (Shout out to Kevin) should be watching. Even if it does develop, it will become, at best, a weak TS, so it's probably not of great concern. Someone is going to see A LOT of rain, however.

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
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Two circulations? [Re: LI Phil]
      #15237 - Fri Jun 11 2004 10:50 PM

I've looked at the loops for a while and it appears to me that there are two different circulations. There looks to be one already on the yucatan and one to the east that is still over water. If this is true I wonder if they will split and become two seperate identities. The reason I say this is because I see everyone on here talking about it moving towards the central or east gulf and yet the local mets are saying it would move more less in our direction in Texas. One of them even stated that a model had a low sitting just east of Brownsville on Monday. What's up with that!?!?


SoonerShawn (a.k.a. ShawnS)


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Cycloneye
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Re: NRL Update [Re: LI Phil]
      #15242 - Sat Jun 12 2004 01:21 AM

Phil I am not been able to get access to the NRL site today but you haved gotten in.Is that a new link or is the same one? Post the link for NRL as I all day long haved not seen anything from there.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Tropics Guy
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Re: NRL Update [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15243 - Sat Jun 12 2004 01:40 AM

Try this link to the NRLsite:
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

TG


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Storm Cooper
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Re: NRL Update [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #15244 - Sat Jun 12 2004 02:09 AM

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

This one may be of use also...

SC

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Jun 12 2004 02:17 AM)


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Cycloneye
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Re: NRL Update [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #15245 - Sat Jun 12 2004 02:11 AM

Thank you Tropics Guy it worked finnally.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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DroopGB31
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Re: NRL Update [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15246 - Sat Jun 12 2004 02:20 AM

I remember last year when the soon to be Bill was in this same position. I remember a big mess of convection over the Yucatan, and everyone was writing it off, saying the wave was dead and nothing was to come of it. So i decided to go to sleep about 2am and the next morning, at 9 my parents woke me up and said there was a tropical storm named Bill in the Gulf...That was a big suprise to me, I was like...what the heck happened that I missed. But I dont think that will happen with this disturbance, just tellin my story about the formation of Bill last year. I'd give it about a 30% chance. Mostly a rain event along the Central Gulf Coast.

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HanKFranK
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gulf, next 3-4 days [Re: DroopGB31]
      #15247 - Sat Jun 12 2004 02:53 AM

i keep hearing downplay of this system, things like: 'an upper low is causing it' or 'it won't be purely tropical'. but consider this: the system is moving into the subtropics, and systems in the subtropics almost always have to contend with shear and upper lows. the problem with that is that you get tropical cyclones--warm core, nonfrontal lows--in shear situations like this every year. like that system in may. it may be assymetric due to all of its convection getting stripped one way, but if it has a closed center and no frontal boundary, gale-near gale winds, is over tropical waters and has a warm core, it's a tropical cyclone.
anyway.. chances aren't all that rosy for this one. the low level easterlies are strong on the east side of the ULL, which is where a storm would get some induced ridging. to the west there is little in the way of convection. if something does form it will likely be of that awkward, hybrid-appearing ilk that the NHC likes to not classify... initially at least, probably all the way to the coast. enough globals are being suggestive, but it doesn't have that definite closed look.. more of that almost-closed, would-be-if-not-sheared-heavily appearance. perhaps a fast-mover caught in the flow that does a quick spurt of intensification.. a weak system by any means. what joe b has said, i'll throw my confidences that way. 30-40% that we get something definite, most likely something of dubious appearance that the NHC hesitates on. you guys know the drill (may 22-25 system).
LI phil, if you get your system, i'll buy you a beer for your lucky call. but you've got to come south to get it.
HF 0254z12june


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javlin
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Re: gulf, next 3-4 days [Re: HanKFranK]
      #15249 - Sat Jun 12 2004 03:19 AM

HF I would look at it a little harder if it sits for 36>48 hrs in the GOM with little forward movement.and less shear.I had faith in Bill last year when many didn't.This just does not look quite that healthy yet.

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James88
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Re: gulf, next 3-4 days [Re: javlin]
      #15252 - Sat Jun 12 2004 07:24 AM

Even so, the NHC doesn't seem to have written it off just yet - check out the Tropical Weather Outlook:-

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED
PRIMARILY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

The past couple of days have all been saying that tropical cyclone formation in not expected. Now, however they appear to think that it may have a little potential. We'll have to watch this one closely over the next few days.


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Anonymous
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Re: gulf, next 3-4 days [Re: HanKFranK]
      #15253 - Sat Jun 12 2004 07:33 AM

I 100 Percent agree Hankfrank! What I'm seeing with this is the heat is being drawn slowly to the north into a area around 23/24 north/86/87 west. Which has shown signs of convection in a nice cloud shield which looks a whole lot like Bill looked like when it started forming. Pluse the upper low to the East which Bill also had.

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