Anonymous
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It's Colleen again....still can't remember my password.  Anyhoo, I'm a little surprised that the TPC (who are probably as bored as we are, I might add) would take the time to type in "showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave.....are not as well organized as they were yesterday" and then go on to mention that "upper level winds have become more favorable" and then "development...if any...would be slow to occur".
It seems to me that they are now looking at this wave a little differently; yet, their statement kind of differs. It is also entirely possible that I spend way too much time inferring things from the , also. 
Colleen 
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summercyclone
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Actually, this is what I was thinking of , forgot it wasn't offcially classified as a TS...
Tropical Depression Two
23 - 25 June 2000
Miles B. Lawrence
National Hurricane Center
1 July 2000
Tropical Depression Two formed from a tropical wave on 23 June, soon after moving from Africa to the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean and while centered a little over 300 nautical miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression moved due westward at 15 to 20 knots for nearly three days and weakened to an open wave on the 25th in the central tropical Atlantic. Scatterometer surface wind data suggests that the depression may have been close to tropical storm strength for a short period on the 23rd.
sc 
I remember Bertha very well!! I was on the the east coast then, and we battened down....
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summercyclone
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There has been a persistent feature that late last week moved off SC and is still there and seems to be getting a bit better organized....it may be our first storm if the trend continues.....or, am I seeing things??
sc
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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If a TD can form that far east in June, then surely we won't have much longer to wait for development, seeing as we're in July. 95L, while still looking a little ragged is doing well to hold itself together thus far. As Phil said, if it can make it across to the Caribbean we could have Alex really soon. I'm starting to get quite impatient! 
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James88
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That system does seem a little better organised. It kinda looks like Christobal when she was forming in 2002. If it was seen as a candidate for development, it would probably be mentioned in the . Check it out later - maybe it will be mentioned.
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Steve hirsch.
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That is what I would term "slime-weasel" wording Although the 16Z loop says to me that the circulation is "re-organizing" to the SW. 12Z likes both waves, as it has one east of the Bahamas at 172 and at the same time one threatening the islands (Windwards). These s like this Emphasize the negative and denounce the positive. The old "bait and switch." Yor're not too sensitive to inferring things into the words Colleen; its ALL about the words  Anyhow, as a former LI'er I went through Donna and Bell and Gloria. Gloria basically sheared its way through LI, Bell was much more organized than Gloria when it came through, and the eye passed over my house. But Gloria caused much more damage with the power outages and downed trees. I also thought the T-shirts were in poor taste and didn't but one
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LI Phil
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Steve H.
Funny you mention Belle...that's actually "my first storm" and what got me into the weather to begin with. I remember it like yesterday, too. I was 10 years old, my dad took me to McDonalds and I was wondering why they were putting up masking tape (of all things) over the windows. O'course, we didn't have back then (or even cable), so there really wasn't much to watch...anyway, we had two 80' willow trees in the backyard, and the next morning, there was only one. It fell between my house and my neighbors house (5' either way and it would have hit either house). Very lucky we were indeed. Well, the next day I went to the library and took out a small paperback entitled "Hurricanes and Tornados". The library never received the book back -- I think my parents paid the fine, unbeknownst to me. It's probably still at my parents' house somewhere.
Sorry for the lengthy reply, Steve. Since you mentioned it, how bad was Donna? And were you here for Carol & Diane?
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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An impressive, though terrifying storm. Interesting to note that Donna is the only hurricane of record to produce hurricane-force winds in Florida, the Mid-Atlantic states, and New England. A ''quadruple whammy'' (if you'll pardon the expression). It hits the Leeward Islands as a CAT 4 hurricane, moves on to slam into Florida as a CAT 4, recurves to strike a glacing blow to NC as a CAT 2, and then makes final landfall in LI as a CAT 2. Thankfully hurricanes that strike several places in a row do not occur all that often. Was anyone on the board in Florida when it passed through?
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Alex K
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First of all, there definitely is a circulation almost due south of Bermuda. I however, cannot tell if it is upper level, mid level, or at the surface. However, it does look like the circulation is getting better defined. As far as the low in the Eastern Atlantic is concerned, I dont think that it has a great chance of developing right now, but I wouldnt be surprised if it tried to form when it got a little farther west.(Bertha formed at 35 west). Right now it doesnt seem too organized, but it may be as i said, able to develope in a couple of days
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Alex K
Unregistered
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Obviously the people who write the tropical weather outlook are not the same people who write the discussion.
From the outlook"UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE"
From the discussion-"THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
OUTBREAK."
I wish that the official authority on this could coordinate what they are saying
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LI Phil
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Alex,
Yes, they are written by different persons...the outlooks are issued by one of the following:
Dr. Lixion Avila
Dr. Jack Beven
James L. Franklin
Miles Lawrence
Dr. Richard Pasch
Stacy Stewart
who are /TPC Hurricane Specialists.
The most recent Discussion was written by Jamie R. Rhome, who is with NOAA.
You can tell who issued what forecast, as their names appear at the end of the statements. I believe that even within the , different forecasters can issue rather divergent forecasts based upon the same data...their "style" if you will.
I'm not certain if the guys issue Discussions as well, or if that is entirely separate. Maybe one of our Mets can clear that up.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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summercyclone
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Loc: Florida Big Bend
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Alex, sometimes it does seem (or is ) that the left hand does not know what the right is saying!
Features of note:
Nice cyclonic curvature developing over Nicaragua. If it came N instead of west???
There is a system s of Bermuda, east of Fl---it is getting better developed; but, as you say, hard to tell if it is a surface feature--looks like it is.
Interesting upper low NE of PR, may be helping to ventilate feature noted s of Bermuda??
and our incipient TD or two, off Africa----it IS getting busier..
sc
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Old Sailor
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Discussion have input from /TPC and FNMOC, reason I think you may shows all inputs with agreement. I have always lean on the discussion inputs until you get a name storm.
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James88
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Looks like the factor is well and truly taking hold in the Atlantic basin. How long is this likely to last for?
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Jamiewx
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Things are really heating up a bit now, 3 areas mentioned in the 5:30pm . Some of which have already been identified by a few of our posters. I have a feeling we may see a couple more invests on these.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 750 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS ALSO
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 MPH AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
well it looks like we may see some real activity soon! The latest outlook mentioning three potential areas. All of these areas have a chance at becoming TD 1 in my opinion. Our old friend southwest of the Cape Verde Islands remains strong, but not too well organised just yet. Still holding together nicely though. The other area mentioned southeast of the Lesser Antilles also shows some signs of development.
But the surprise for me is the system to the south of Bermuda. This has flared up quite nicely and, as some of you have already mentioned, appears to have some form of circulation at some level. I think right now this has the highest chance of becoming something more soon.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
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evening 's arrival becomes very apparent and the system goes offline temporarily.. bummer, cause i had lots of things to say last night that have been brought up today. and covered, so i'll just rehash and give my interpretation.
the wave out in front that looked like a carib/gulf development threat over the weekend has very little signature and enough easterly momentum that it won't have an opportunity to do anything. is tracking two waves it considers development worthy--it maintains 95L until the weekend then develops a weak surface system early next week for the islands.. as it runs into shear ahead of an upper low max backing along the axis. it then promptly loses the system, not via shear, but by the dulling of resolution past 7 days (the remnant moisture plods onward to florida by the end of next week). a couple days behind it a second system, which it treats a bit more favorable, trods along on a more southerly track, checked by easterly shear on the se flank of the upper ridge max in tandem with the upper low ahead. makes some sense, but these are just ballpark until a better fix on either system is attained.
right now i'd give either of these features a moderate development chance. both will probably have to get east of 40w to do anything, and will be contending with variable shear profiles and whatever SAL has in the mix. 95L will probably pulse down for a day or two, then reinvigorate as it gets near 40w. the trailer i'm less sure about (its trajectory will have to be similar to 95L or it will lose its definition/potential). i wouldn't look for a named system down there prior to july 10-11, and a lot can happen between now and then to preclude any of that. 30-40% on either.. net 50% that something happens at all.
more immediately there is that old piece of front south of bermuda. sc and alex k have identified this thing and pretty much explained it. fish spinner fodder, but presently it has the best chance to go soonest. it will probably meander for a couple days, then jerk NE along with a shortwave max.. but until then there appears to be a mid-level low and surface trough there, and it is looking better all the time. i like it, 50% right now. i'm wondering why the hasn't mentioned it (as usual with stuff in fish-spinner land).
anyway, has the switch on. james88 i've heard lasts 30-40 days, but watching the motion anomaly maps (haven't had that page work in a while) a couple years back and the longitude/time diagrams you can see now.. it doesn't really move in linear pulses, but propagates eastward with a sort of discontinous, skippy pace. in my experience it's usually been 2-3 weeks that the basin will be alight, with an odd week on either side. sometimes a little mini-pulse will come by. there's really no telling.. without the time-series anomaly maps i don't have a real clue. anyway james, i guess you must know rich byett (you two are in gloucester and the only folks in europe i ever see post). enjoy what summer you guys have up there. actually, you ought to try something we can't do at my latitude.. think you can photograph some noctilucent clouds?
HF 2150z06july
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HanKFranK
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as soon as i open my mouth they go and mention the bermuda disturbance. thats great, but they trumped me on the 45-50w wave. it's kinda.. low in latitude. since it hadn't gained since yesterday and is going to scuttle in south america if it doesn't, i'm doubting... don't think much of it. moderator or cornelius bros (cornelii?), almost time for a new thread. i suggest jamiewx's last header, anyway.. things are indeed heating up.
HF 2155z06july
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LI Phil
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HF,
2 solid posts, as always. Yeah, the site was down for like 13 hours yesterday, not sure why. Maybe Mike was trying something new out.
Good call on the disturbance southwest of Bermuda (even though you weren't the first to call it...you probably would have been last night could anyone have logged on). What chances would you give it of becoming named (or at least a TD)? Looking at the skatomometer (sp) #s on the first African wave, it looks like it could be a TD too.
As far as a new thread, I don't know if I have the "power" to make a new one, but I'll agree, Jamiewx' suggestion would be great for a new one. That call is up to Ed, John or Mike, not me, but I'll toss my hat into the ring for that...
Saw that the made it all the way to Africa, so lets give it 2-3 weeks for major action, but I'll still bet we get a TD within the next week. If either or both African waves make it to the w carrib, watch out...everything's coming into play nicely now.
JoeB was opining today that the , firmly entrenched now, will lift up early next week, allowing plenty of ridging that could get 95L (and possibly 96L) past the Antilles and into the w carrib. Certainly bears watching.
And HF, loved the "latin" reference with the plural of the brothers Cornelius. It's been 20 years, but, I do believe that would be the "Brothers Cornelii".
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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The title ATLANTIC IS HEATING UP is my suggestion about heading of thread when ED updates it.HF as always great posts and let's see what happens in comming days and weeks as the has made it into the atlantic.Bermuda disturbance to me has the best shot right now to develop into something as those waves in the east and central atlantic dont have ideal conditions.That disturbance near Bermuda may be trapped in weak steering or it is going to eject NE that is the question now about movement of that system.
Edited by Cycloneye (Wed Jul 07 2004 12:13 AM)
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