LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Luis/"C-eye"
Gotta think that disturbance south of bermuda has the best chance for quick development, but nothing down the road. Question to me is "will it make TD status". I think if decides the T #s are there, it will and then may give it an invest. Probably doubtful for a plane, as it's no danger to any landmass, but this could just skew everyone's #s down the road. If I can (doubtful) make a new thread, I will call it "The Atlantic Is Heating Up" in honor of James88/Jamiewx & HF's calls. Think all are in agreement that things are indeed HEATING UP!
Cheers,
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Alex K
Unregistered
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Neither of the three systems immediately seems like it will develop. Convection of the Bermuda system is on the wane, but may wax tommorrow. As you all know, weak systems often do that. However, the convection wane on the eastern atlantic seems to be more permanent. However, it may develop farther down the road as this is July. The system which it is farthest south in the Atlantic seems interesting,convection is high, maybe even a twist, but it looks like it will plow into south america. However, i bet we have turned some kind of corner. There are a train of waves in Africa, and i think its only time until one system gets its act together.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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YES YES YES
finally something to watch and wait with...
sharpening pencils... this is just the beginning....
1, 2, and 3 and it is finally here..... now where is my map?
waiting for Alex... if not now then for sure it is coming soon..
warming water.. wonderful...
keep your eyes open for sure. The tropics just might bring rain to Florida maybe Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
watching the maps ...
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I've quickly scanned all the posts while I was away (and the cats DID play)! Many excellent contributions, including many on Tuesday that really would have been better suited to the Hurricane History Forum  With the Atlantic showing signs of potential activity (see the Storm Forum) it is now time to stay on topic. Use the correct Forums for your posts and keep your posts oriented to the tropics.
Its not time for a new Main Page article yet...but we may be getting close.
Thanks,
ED
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The southernmost wave has gotten a little better organised overnight, and if it was a bit further north it would probably have a good chance for development. However, as Alex said, it is about to slam into South America, so don't expect anything big.
BTW, looks like another huge wave is about to exit the African coast. Check out this image - plenty of storms across the continent moving towards the Atlantic. On a lesser note, it also shows the intense low-pressure system that will move across the UK through today and tomorrow:-
The waves of tomorrow?
Edited by James88 (Wed Jul 07 2004 03:58 AM)
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Florida Big Bend
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I felt the same as HF on the wave se of the Windwards---got a nice signature, but way too low. It's going to run in Guiana, but, if it gains a little latitude it could be a S America coast skimmer---those systems have produced some interesting storms in the last 20 yrs.
Looks like our low s of Bermuda is struggling or reorganizing, it doesn't look too good this am. Ditto for systems off Africa.
It's early, amazing to see this much activity in early JULY, keep that in mind. TRENDS not actual events are the indicators here...soon, it'll be seatbelt time.
Get ready for a wild ride!
sc 
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Lois
Unregistered
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No.. I'm losing patience rapidly. So don't ask me to be patient. And, why are we watching or even bothering with waves that are about to slam into Belen.. does someone own shrimp boats there? Explains the lengthly disapeerances of some of the more well known hurricane trackers.
Bermuda system looked better yesterday.. i think tho didn't pay it a lot of attention. I stopped talking Fish a long time ago.
That leaves a maybe wave far out and someone give me a reason it won't go south like the Carmen Miranda wave?
No..no patience, so little patience I can barely make it through the posts of some of my favorite posters.
I'd find a new topic to talk or go read hurricane history but got to tell you Ed I'm bored to death with history right now. Tired of the past and hoping for a cat 5 to blow my boredom away so not going to focus on the future much but dont ask me to have patience because I lost that attribute a long long long long long time ago.
Why don't we make a board for wishcasters.
Topic?
Wishing for a Cane? Try that pool of clouds off the coast of Spain about to head down to the Cape Verde islands, go on... anything can happen in wishcasting land!
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Judging from the latest it would seem that the Atlantic may be about to become a little quieter (at least for the next few days). If the wave currently in the east Atlantic regenerates as it approaches the Caribbean we could have something to watch. Can it be much longer?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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or, look in the Gulf....:)
Mr. A
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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Big flare-up NE of the Bahamas, remains to be seen if it persists or if it develops a LLC., any models picking this up?
TG
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Does someone have an accurate view of it right now because I thought it was in the pacific getting near that area of disturbed weather in the epac and not yet near the Atlantic, but haven't had a chance to look lately and notice that there is activity there.
Maybe Bermuda.. want to say 50/50 but not sure.
happy trails
bobbi
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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That system south of Bermuda has some potential, but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't amount to anything. Also, I get the idea that 95L will be dropped soon - it doesn't look very impressive at the moment.
As for , Cycloneye posted a good link a few days ago.
MJO
Edited by James88 (Wed Jul 07 2004 01:23 PM)
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_144m.gif
This is the 12ZGFS and shows clearly a significant system east of the lesser antilles by early next week.But of course it is too far away in days to know for sure but that wave 95L moisted the air behind and that may help the wave that is emerging Africa now and that one is what the model is jumping on.Now let's see if other models join or is a loner.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Wed Jul 07 2004 01:53 PM)
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Alex K
Unregistered
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95I may have been the sacrificial lamb for the wave behind it. Im still a little wary about predicting something forming out there, but i like the looks of our latest wave. Its convection didnt die as it splashed into the water. We'll have to see if there is a twist in it. Its kinda frustrating not to have images updated frequently in that part of the world
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Maybe next pass around it we'll have a lot going on. Not sure its late enough in the season to do it this time. Is it possible its moving faster than it was or does the speed stay the same?
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well 95L seems to have all but disintegrated today. However, the wave that has moved of the African coast and is now located southeast of the CV Islands again looks pretty well organised. The 1800z visible imagery from that area would indicate some curvature in the cloud field. Wouldnt be surprised if this became Invest 96L sometime soon, if it holds together.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Hey Alex K
I have a link that i think has some neat satellite imagery, and it says it real time.
You have to scroll down the page a until you find Africam which is at the bottom and there is a white box that says IR Floater, click that inside the white box and you will get up to date satellite pictures of the waves coming off africa. It looks like the wave that just moved off the coast might be losing convection also.
here is the link
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
Also, i agree with Rich B on the curvature, it seems there is a little circulation there.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I agree, the convection does seem to be waning. Is that a circulation on the east side?
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_144l.gif
18Z run shows system more developed east of the lesser antilles but what I want to see is other global models joining the and if that happens then it will be very interesting to follow that wave that is now emerging Africa.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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I suppose where there's so much smoke there's some fire somewhere. IF the models keep spitting out possible scenarios then one will probably pop up somewhere. A possibility I suppose. Will see.
Maybe models are doing a dry run.
Is Steve here from Metarie? I'm lost a bit with the Steve's online and don't remember if you've posted lately.
Beginning to feel we need some type of roll call, getting lost in names.
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