MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Currently we are watching a system southeast of Bermuda to possibly be the first depression of the season.
It's moving Northeastward, so it won't be affecting land. But it's starting to form a low level circulation, so there is a good chance we'll see a depression this evening or tomorrow.
In the Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean, there's another wave, but it's fairly disorganized at the moment.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos) (Backup site)
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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LI Phil
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Mike
Thanks for the new thread. Little too much vitriol on the last one.
James88--The wave certainly looks healthy. I wasn't going to give it much chance for development, but now I'm not so sure. I'd be surprised if it becomes Alex, but a TD may not be out of the question. It obviously got 's attention. The 11:30 also "AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A SMALL SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10-15 MPH."
If nothing else, it'll keep us busy...
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Joe B. tropical update for Thursday implied that within the next week activity will increase. Interestingly he failed to even mention the Bermuda system, but he did focus on the wave at 40w which he called the first in a series. The european model ( of his preference) picked up on the wave now exiting Africa and developed it in about 7 days. The wave at 40 does have some rotation and little convection for now. It may have to be sacrificed to the shear machine in the E Carribean but could inaugerate the pressure changes necessary to lessen shear so the second system can go...at least that is the theorey. See ya! EDS.
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doug
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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96L seems to have gained a little convection over what looks like a 'centre'. The convection also looks a little less ragged. Perhaps a tropical depression will emerge very soon.
Edited by James88 (Thu Jul 08 2004 12:48 PM)
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Rabbit
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Loc: Central Florida
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looking like Juan did last year about 12 hours before development, could be a TD by tomorrow morning
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Cycloneye
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Thank you ED for posting a new thread that was needed because of this new event unfolding.It looks like a TD may be forming there but it will be a fish system as it is moving away from the US.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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From the looks of things, the system is becoming more organised. I wouldn't be surprised if another STDS was issued soon. Perhaps advisories will be initiated later today.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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hey guys,
as this system is located 250 miles southwest of Bermuda, and is heading northeast at 10 to 15 mph, it looks set to impact Bermuda in around 18 - 24 hours. Seems to be getting much better organised, wouldnt be surprised to see it classified at 2100z this evening, and official watches or warnings for Bermuda at the same time.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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James88
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I agree - it might well be classified later today. However, it may need to develop some more organised convection, as the current activity seems to be waning. Also, am I the only one who thinks 96L looks a little 'stretched out'? These are probably just temporary.
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LI Phil
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Even in their 11:27 tropical update, accuwx dismisses this system:
Today's Discussion July 8, 2004 11:27 a.m. The area of disturbed weather located approximately 275 miles east of Bermuda has shown no signs of development. (oops...they were talking about the system east of Bermuda, not the current 96L -- they didn't even mention it at all)
Check out the model runs from hurricane alley.
They all take it south of Bermuda and possibly straight to England. Wouldn't that be a rush for James & Rich if 96L gets named and hits...europe? Of course it wouldn't be Alex, just a low, but still...
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Jul 08 2004 03:18 PM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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NHC calling this a "possible tropical cyclone" under the special features section of the TWD at 2:05pm.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well the latest from SSD on 96L still shows the system as 'TOO WEAK' and no TNumber assigned (1745UTC). Visible imagery shows a small circulation located on the southeastern edge of the elongated convection envelope. Waiting for the next to shed more light on this feature.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Steve
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Ed, it's just that since the way the board is set up isn't topic driven, I'm always in the news rather than the forum (though I do check in there from time to time). I've actually had to walk people into how to get to the news if they want to read this site. They'd always e-mail me, "the forum's dead." Then I tell them to click on the number behind the latest news headline, etc.
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As for the tropics at large, you can see some of the influence in the Atlantic now with the colors all brightening up and everything. And who told you first to look out for a potential storm in Western Europe this year? /this guy/
One thing that was of interest in JB's column today was his prediction on the pattern we're going through this summer and the possible implications for tropical season. We start off with a ridge centered around New Mexico and one off the SE Coast. The NM ridge will surge ENEward and hook up with the SW Atalntic ridge until you get a trof split in the middle and the whole process starts over again. If he's got it together in that aspect along with the & Monsoonal influence on African waves, then we might see some tropical activity between the 10th and 20th of July and probably not so much between the 20th of July and 10th of August. After that, we'd see the uptick in the action just in time for some of the hottest water temperatures of the season. Who knows what that could bring? Also, over the last few weeks, he has hinted that the waves have been slightly too far north to get rolling in the EPAC. One has to wonder when the seasonal influences nudge the a bit north of where it's been if the entire SE and all the Islands aren't sitting ducks.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Hi again...I agree there is a vortex in the SE quardrant. My guess is: this will not pull itself together into a TD.
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doug
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Doug,
loks like u were right for now. 96L remains a tropical disturbance at the 530pm . However, if the thunderstorms can concentrate a little more then it could become a depression at anytime. I am a little surprised it wasnt classified yet, and of course there is always TD4 from 2000 to use as a comparison, especially as this disturbance looks to be closing in on Bermuda.
Also interesting to note they are still carrying the wave that was 95L in the outlook, even though there is no real convective activity to speak of in association with this wave. The TWD discussion does state that this wave has a large envelope, and i gues they are carrying it because it has potential to develop as it nears the Lesser Antilles, as hinted by a few models.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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LI Phil
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Rich,
The former 95L will still be something to reckon with once it clears the "dead zone" it's now in (give it 48 hours). Once it gets to the Lesser Antillies, look for it to redevelop. Not saying it will (or will even get there, but I wouldn't bet against it), but if it does it should be in a more favorable environment. and Joe B both hint that this will get off of S. Fla and into the gulf next week.
Regardless of whether 96L makes it to TD status, looks like you and James are going to feel some of its effects down the road.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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javlin
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Both AVN and seem to hint at this possibility but it is short lived.What was interesting was AVN's look beyond that coming offf Africa.I cannot remember which models were good where.Maybe somebody hear could clear that up.The model that AVN had was a little strong I would think.
By the way could somebody please" TURN OFF THE FAN IN PANAMA".
Edited by javlin (Thu Jul 08 2004 07:02 PM)
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HanKFranK
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18z run looks very docile and dull compared to the last 3 days. something in encoded mind must have remembered "oh, its july". vigorous waves are still present in the basin, only now there isn't much model hoopla over them. former 95L is progessing, now near 43w. it should be near 50w early saturday and from there on comes its real chance at development. has a slightly more active than recent runs, though still probably not enough to preclude development. it's best chances are prior to the islands, july 10-11. the wave was most enthusiastic about, near 30w, is trailing far to the south just as indicated. it has plenty of convection going for it, though not a great deal of organization. it may look better over time, but would likely be a couple days from depression stage. another wave should come off tomorrow or saturday and behave in the spirit of its immediate predecessors.
the northwest atlantic also has that interesting (though underachieving) feature 96L. it lacks the steady convection of a true depression, but may have some of the cyclonic structure. mediocre chances as it moves northeastward (fair environment, decent SSTs, short time slot, other competing convection). this was an mcc core that was trailing the feature to its ne that was of interest a couple days ago.. may have a similar open-ended life cycle and never develop.
i'm feeling less confident about getting a storm or two out of the current activity.. but will be surprised if nothing gets going during the next few days.
by the way, potential season-wide implications as the strongly negative of june has caused much more extensive positive SST anomalies in the pacific from 150w to west of the dateline. a may-like positive rebound could trip this trend up, but if it doesn't we may be leaning to weak warm in august.
HF 0218z09july
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James88
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After being devoid of much convection for the last few hours, the satellite images show new convection flaring up.
96L Satellite Image
However, the says it now has little potential for further development. In fact, no development is expected for the next few days. Looks like the Atlantic may be about to go quiet again. Still, maybe one of the waves in the Atlantic will take us by surprise.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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The does not seem to interested in that little low any more...it is poorly organized, all the convection on the west and it is experiencing blow off...I agree with the that it has a very small chance of further development, and they probably don't want to classify it any way.
The best chance of an organized system is the former 95L at around 45W which has a low and no convection, but if it stays intact for the next several days could get into an increasingly favorable environment in the NW Carribean by Tuesday or Wednesday. Other than that not much on the board right now. EDS.
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doug
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