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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Tropics Quiet for the Moment
      #16575 - Thu Jul 22 2004 09:13 PM

The last system (disturbance given called 97L) failed to get organized, although it gave it a few tries on the way, leaving us with sill no depressions for the season yet.

And right now there doesn't look to be any immediate threats for any system, which means a stormless July is becoming a very real possibility. Which, I must state, has no bearing on how active the rest of the seasn will be.

When will Alex form now? Time for another round of guesses.

General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Edited by MikeC (Mon Jul 26 2004 04:12 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment [Re: MikeC]
      #16576 - Thu Jul 22 2004 09:35 PM

Thanks for the new forum Mike. "Tropics Quiet for the Moment" is probably as good a title as any.

There were some good posts on the last page of the last thread from Steve and Rob Mann about how the basin is, climatologically speaking, actually ahead of schedule and how ripe the tropics should be, come the beginning of peak season. Looking forward to it after such a slow start, one which really had only one or two close calls. Unfortunately for us impatient trackers, it looks like we will enter the month of August without so much as a TD . However, if the much anticipated and expected upturn in activity occurs, this could still be a memorable season.

Sticking with my December numbers of 14/8/3.

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve
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Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment [Re: LI Phil]
      #16577 - Thu Jul 22 2004 09:39 PM

12z models (I'm not inclined to seek out the 18Z's at the moment) still show a ripple from the former 97L. All major globals track it to either LA or TX. So someone's gonna get some rain out of it even if it's only a drop or two. The next thing to watch is the trof east of Florida. As noted by a couple of NOAA Discussions as well as one or two of those models, a cut off low may form and actually retrograde back over the Gulf states.

Is this post a reach? Sure. But that's all we got.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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DustDuchess
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Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment [Re: Steve]
      #16578 - Thu Jul 22 2004 09:52 PM

How close to 1992 is this quiet period? I am thinking how Andrew was the first and only hurricane of the season and how very destructive that was. Are the conditions similar at this time?

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HanKFranK
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nothing doing [Re: DustDuchess]
      #16579 - Thu Jul 22 2004 10:11 PM

situation normal. 97L isn't really a trackable entity right now.. just an un-exciting wave today. the interesting looking wave near 45w isn't moving very quickly. has spotty convection and an interesting ITCZ signature, but no real model support. weak low exposed west of the hung decaying trough off the southeast, noted earlier by several. expected something like that.. until it associates with convection it shouldn't do a whole lot.
whereas i was talking 2 of 3 that we'd have a storm by friday afternoon, today i see no chance of a system prior to sunday.
dust duchess i know '92 was an interesting year and all, but i can name several like it with similar overall conditions that had no cat 5 hurricane hitting florida. it was a chance event, really.. and not useful to compare to this year.
SOI has been down for several days now.. i'm getting fairly sure that weak el nino conditions will be upon us late in the season. it's going to take a prolonged neutral period or positive spike to bust the trend from here.
my numbers are stuck low.. maybe i'll get closer after all.
HF 2212z22july


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Cycloneye
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Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment [Re: MikeC]
      #16580 - Thu Jul 22 2004 10:11 PM

Agree with Phil it is a good title for this new thread.But now a new area to watch has surfaced as the NHC points out:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222116
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED
ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

I think that Hank Frank talked briefly about something to watch in the subtropical atlantic so let's see what happens.

The real season starts in august and because there has been no storms yet it doesn't mean anything that may suggest a below average season as in past posts Rob and Jason haved broughted the stats of past seasons that started late and finshed active.

My new guess for Alex to form is august 11 my birthday date.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Thu Jul 22 2004 10:13 PM)


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Cycloneye
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98L invest for area NE of Bahamas [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16581 - Fri Jul 23 2004 12:56 AM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Let's see if this low pressure turns into a pure tropical system.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LoisCane
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Re: 98L invest for area NE of Bahamas [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16582 - Fri Jul 23 2004 01:03 AM

very interesting..

funny cause the old wave always seemed like a girl storm not a male storm.. and always thought alex would form east of florida somewhere.. still think conditions aren't perfect there but that area tends to do well with imperfect strange conditions

tropical or not tho?
interesting to see

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LI Phil
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Re: nothing doing [Re: HanKFranK]
      #16583 - Fri Jul 23 2004 01:03 AM

>>> situation normal

Ah, HF, 2/5ths of the acronym "SNAFU". If anyone wants to know that the last three letters stand for, PM me, it's not ready for prime time, if you catch my drift.

I'm not real hopeful for any development out of anything currently out there...as Steve said in the last thread, had 97L only made it to the GOM in better shape, it would have been interesting. Still think the number one New Orleans Saints fan will see some weather from this. Hope you get some good gusts and squalls big guy.

I see some of the models are developing something to develop off of the East Coast in a day or so. Whether it could be called tropical is apparently up for debate. I, for one, don't believe it to be so. Whether the forecasted trof picks it up and/or the Bermuda High keep it along the coast is also debatable.

Either way, showers and t-storms are forecasted for my weekend, mostly from the cold front dropping south from Canada which is causing all the mischief in the heartland.

Situation Normal...all blankety blank.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LoisCane
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12/47 give or take a cord [Re: LI Phil]
      #16584 - Fri Jul 23 2004 01:21 AM

There is a twist out there in the wave thats traveling west bound. It's small but you can make it out on a few loops. Just wanted to mention it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

lacks moisture.. its very dry out there.. maybe as it gets closer to the islands

watching the other thing ..not there yet

lois

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Steve
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Couplea off night tidbits... [Re: LoisCane]
      #16591 - Fri Jul 23 2004 03:54 AM

Cyclone Phase Evolution site...

The models have different ideas about the South Atlantic Coast.

Anyone got the updated link to the maximum storm potential site? It used to be linked from ATWC, but it's not anymore.

Oh yeah, there's still some wannabe convection in the Central Caribbean.

Steve

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DroopGB31
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Re: Couplea off night tidbits... [Re: Steve]
      #16592 - Fri Jul 23 2004 05:16 AM

Hey Steve, Im not sure if this is the site your looking for or not, but here it is.... Maximum Storm Potential Have a nice TGIF.

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James88
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Re: Couplea off night tidbits... [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16593 - Fri Jul 23 2004 08:39 AM

98L certainly looks more tropical than it did yesterday. Dry air is not an inhibiting factor with this system, and the shear around it should start to decrease in the next 24 hours. As with 97L, the key is persistence - it needs to maintain its convection. Let's see what it does today.

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Rich B
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98L [Re: James88]
      #16594 - Fri Jul 23 2004 12:12 PM

98L certainly looks like its still there this morning. Although not a tropical cyclone, it may take the sub-tropical route if it can persist. A small area of convection is near the centre, which hasnt moved much in the past 12 hours. However, of note is the large area of deep convection further south, nearer the Turks and Caicos Islands. Has any one else noticed this and what are your thoughts on both these areas in general?

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: 98L [Re: Rich B]
      #16595 - Fri Jul 23 2004 12:46 PM

Any ideas of the steering currents in 24 hours?

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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Tropics Guy
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Re: east Atlantic wave [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16596 - Fri Jul 23 2004 01:42 PM

The wave that recently came off of Africa, south of CV is actually showing INCREASING convection, hasn't fizzled yet like the others.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Steve
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Re: east Atlantic wave [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #16597 - Fri Jul 23 2004 02:14 PM

Thanks for the link Droop.
-----------------------------------------------
Tropics Guy,

I noticed the same thing today scanning Africa and its west coast on the Goes 12. That's the best wave so far. If you watch the frames, you can see the low pressure support (usually north of an emerging wave) actually combined with the wave to juice it up.

As for 98L, it's a watch and see game. It's between a trof to its west and building high pressure to its east. It's either going to get trapped or cut out away NE. It's too tough to tell yet.

The southern remains of 97L are in the west Central Caribbean, the northern energy gave 98L its kick start. That reminds me of a storm 2 or 3 years ago that bred a bunch of other stuff on its way (can't remember what that one was). Some convection moving into the BOC from the Mexican coast as well. Maybe that will supply some energy around the back side of the ULL now diving into Mexico.

Bastardi (out of town) said he's going to try to do a post keying in on the tropics later today. If so, I'll try to find the highlights. For now, he's just mentioning that the youth of the season is the major limitation. His thoughts on 98L are that it'll probably drift north for a couple of days as the trof lifts out, the ridge backs into it and the air warms over it. He did reference that big & unseasonbly cool high pressures over the belly of the U.S. usually have a buildup of warmth close by in the subtropics (moreso in August and September than July). He's not even writing off 97L as the wave in the Gulf will have to be watched next week. Since the northern end's intersection with the pre-existing trof set off 98L, apparently anything in or near the Gulf could be similarly set off.

Steve

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ticka1
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Re: east Atlantic wave [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #16598 - Fri Jul 23 2004 02:14 PM

Thanks for the link. Looks impressive, wonder if it can hold its own as it tracks across the Atlantic, will be interesting to watch.

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Rich B
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Re: east Atlantic wave [Re: ticka1]
      #16599 - Fri Jul 23 2004 02:40 PM

Well the east Atlantic Wave certainly looks healthy today. Both IR and Visible imagery shows the system is quite well developed, with some possible banding associated with the wave. It looks to have drawn in the low pressure area that was previously north of the main body of convection. Woudnt be surprised to see an invest go up on this later today, and also to see if it is mentioned in the next TWO from NHC.

As for 98L, well it doesnt seem to want to go anywhere or do anything at present. The convective activity remain east of the low level circulation, and there doesnt appear to be much of an effort in it occurring any nearer the centre.

All in all both systems need watching, but that wave certainly looks impressive

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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bobbi
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touching all the bases here [Re: Steve]
      #16600 - Fri Jul 23 2004 02:50 PM

Rich.. I've noticed that the area of deepest convection is not over the area that i think is I think the center of the subject area. The stronger moisture seems displaced. Norcross pointed to an area that I think was to the East of what you would see on the sats and get all excited. So.. either its misplaced moisture or multiple vortixes such as we see often in this area in quasi-tropical disturbances.

There is the barest signature of a possible circulation center from the old wave down in the Caribbean. The stuffing really got kicked out of that wave from that blow torch of air that came down from the north and sucked some of the moisture up into the Bahamas. Looks a bit like the Scarecrow with haye all over him lying there on the ground trying to put himself back together. Luckily the Scarecrow had Dorothy and this wave has nothing but bits and pieces of what it used to be. Wanna be is I suppose better than Has Been.

Wave off Africa is beautiful and may I add has intensified as opposed to the way the last few lost all signs of life and convection after they hit the water. Definitely something to watch.

But..dry air out there.. all over and African Dust.

Still is a sort of vague twist in a dry wave out around 50, very dry.

Steve..good round up you wrote there. Where is Bastardi anyway? Imagine he said something, he writes more words than I can on any given day.

Take care all.. am around but either way.. have a great weekend.


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