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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed in Va
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Re: touching all the bases here [Re: Unregistered User]
      #16601 - Fri Jul 23 2004 02:56 PM

A good NWS source for Atlantic speculation is the Wimington NC office, which usually gives a tropical update in the marine section of its mid-morning report. The one for today talks about the Bahamas system:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/nc/discussion.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ed in Va
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Re: touching all the bases here [Re: Ed in Va]
      #16602 - Fri Jul 23 2004 02:58 PM

Fist post and I screwed in up...it's the Newport/Morehead City office, not the Wilimington one.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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LI Phil
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Welcome aboard Ed [Re: Ed in Va]
      #16603 - Fri Jul 23 2004 03:08 PM

Welcome Ed.

You guys pretty much covered all the bases already, so I'll try not to reiterate too much.

Wave off Africa. Pretty impressive so far. Looks to be a tad south of some of the others, but not worried about longitude/lattitude for now. Let's see how it fares on it's (hopefully) trek across the pond.

98L. Interesting how it formed from the split of 97L, though fairly rare, not an unique situation. Steve remarked a wave did this a couple of years ago. So far, doesn't look like it will develop, and as Rich said, it's just kind of hanging out right now.

Remnant low from 97L in the GOM. JB thinks this will be a playa in the western gulf this weekend. Probably needs to be watched. Steve, you might get yer gusty t-storms from this.

JB's afternoon update on the tropics...and his whereabouts...unless I missed it, he didn't mention where he is, but this is his last business trip of the summer, so we'll be in full video and post mode for the heart of the season. He didn't promise a post this afternoon, only a "will try," especially if the system north of hispaniola gets going. Knowing him, though, he'll be back.

Cheers all,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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summercyclone
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Re: Call the ball#2 [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16604 - Fri Jul 23 2004 03:28 PM

This is the area I pointed out on the other thread yesterday afternoon, that got written off immediately (by some):

"Vortex, upper left of pic.....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes"

sc

looks like the energy went north....

Here's what they say today:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
TWO WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN ENDS OF THE CLOUD BAND. THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS MAY
EVENTUALLY MERGE NEAR THE NORTH END OF THE CLOUD BAND WHERE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WEATHER SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON
...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Also: take a look off Africa, good flare today....


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bobbi
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Re: Call the ball#2---what DOES that MEAN Phil? [Re: summercyclone]
      #16605 - Fri Jul 23 2004 04:30 PM

okay..
trying not to watch too much..hope if i don't it will sneak up and bite me

just want to say.. africa looks beautiful this time of year.. and if it was any higher the dry, desert dust would eat it up and spit it out like yesterdays bubble gum

nope..stay low, sail fast, swirl pretty and hang in there girl

let that mess off of Florida become storm 1.. minimal storm and we can all get it over with and move on to the exciting stuff

sigh..............not one comment on anything else..nope, nada

keep watching sats.. best is off of africa, if that doesnt get your heart pumping you are all DOA and don't even know it


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Rich B
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Re: touching all the bases here [Re: Unregistered User]
      #16606 - Fri Jul 23 2004 04:33 PM

Just looking at the latest visible loops from GHCC on 98L, and i noticed two things:

1) The low-level circulation appears to have started a slow motion to the northwest in the past couple of hours.

2) The convection southeast of the circulation appears to be slowly catching up with the circulation. If this happens then perhaps it will develop further.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: touching all the bases here [Re: Rich B]
      #16608 - Fri Jul 23 2004 04:54 PM

I see a slow drift to the N-NE.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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LI Phil
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Recon [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16609 - Fri Jul 23 2004 05:03 PM

Plan of the Day

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 231430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 23 JULY 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUL 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1400Z
D. 30.0N 70.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FOLLOW ON TASKING
AT 25/1800Z NEAR 35.0N 70.0W.

recon graphic

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
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Re: Recon [Re: LI Phil]
      #16610 - Fri Jul 23 2004 05:30 PM

weak low pressure east-northeast of the bahamas will slowly get better organized as it moves N with the deepening trough over the eastern U.S. this weekend. It may become a depresion but more like extratropical. This could give showers to S.E. New England. 97L alot are tracking should make it near the Yucitan by Sunday and could regain its T.S. activity with more support. Currently it looks as though it might miss the trough due to its position, no organized low predicted and the trough isnt going to be as strong as first forcasted. Still could become a T.D. Sunday or Monday in the western gulf. System off africa will become less organized as it moves west/. scottsvb

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Tropics Guy
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Re: east Atlantic wave [Re: Rich B]
      #16611 - Fri Jul 23 2004 06:11 PM

From the 2:05 TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE 50 NM EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W S
OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THIS IS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH
SATELLITE PICTURES AND QUIKSCAT SHOWING A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
PERHAPS A WEAK LOW IN THE AREA OF 14N20W. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED
IN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 26W.

Maybe this one will be for real, we'll see if it develops.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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rmbjoe1954
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East Atlantic wave [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #16612 - Fri Jul 23 2004 06:21 PM

We might as well plunge into the Cape Verde season..what a year!

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment [Re: MikeC]
      #16613 - Fri Jul 23 2004 06:22 PM

From the 2:05 twd
SUBTROPICAL ATLC...
ATYPICAL PATTERN CONTINUES THE W ATLC WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ROUGHLY HALFWAY IN BETWEEN THE SE UNITED STATES AND
BERMUDA EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND W CUBA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROUGH IS NOW SPLITTING N OF 30N
WITH A FORMING UPPER LOW APPROXIMATELY 250 NM E OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING STRONG DIVERGENCE TO THE E
AND SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 65W-73W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE IS
LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WILL LIKELY SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES WEST


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LI Phil
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"97L" [Re: Anonymous]
      #16614 - Fri Jul 23 2004 06:32 PM

I posed this question yesterday but no one seemed able to answer it. If the remnant low from what was once 97L does make it to TD strength, would NRL still refer to it as 97L, or would it receive a new invest with a different #?

>>> 97L alot are tracking should make it near the Yucitan by Sunday and could regain its T.S. activity with more support.

And scottsvb, do you think this could really attain TS strength (I know the GOM is probably very conducive for development). Are the models showing this development?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Old Sailor
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Re: "97L" [Re: LI Phil]
      #16615 - Fri Jul 23 2004 06:38 PM

Phil:
if it is the same wave then they would keep 97L but I don't think anyting going to happen with this one, 98L more likely to be a TD if picks up the wave reaching the West Indes.


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LI Phil
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Re: "97L" [Re: Old Sailor]
      #16616 - Fri Jul 23 2004 06:42 PM

Thanks Old Sailor! scottsvb seems to think it will develop if it gets some support.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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rmbjoe1954
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98L [Re: Old Sailor]
      #16617 - Fri Jul 23 2004 08:23 PM

I see circulation; and banding around it; I see it moving ever so slowly to the NW. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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DroopGB31
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Re: 98L [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16618 - Fri Jul 23 2004 08:49 PM

Anybody that subscribes to Accuweather, Has JB made a post yet today? Im kind of curious about what he has to say. Looking at 98L, still a large swirl with it, but not much convection going on around it, looks like alot of high clouds. I also think its moving NW a bit. IMO I dont think it will develop much past a TD, if it even makes that status. The swirl should drift west into the SE and cause plenty of showers and storms this weekend. As for the old 97L, Im in the same boat with Steve, Its still a wave, and has alittle energy associated with it still so its gotta be watched, especially if it makes it into the Gulf soon. Everything in place for a storm to form in there, just needs a trigger of some sort. Whether it comes or not remains to be seen. Everyone have a great Friday. Later

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troy2
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Re: 98L [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16619 - Fri Jul 23 2004 09:00 PM

Looking at the GOES closeup it almost seems like there is a few centers of circulation. It's hard to tell if any are at the surface. While stareing closely at the close up lops form a few different cords. Little "vortexes" pop up thenseen to vanish and appear in different directions. No method to the movement of the "vortexes". WV loop (wide shot/GOES version) looks as if the center is above the Turks/Caicos or in that vicinity. 23.5 74 ish. Infared seem sto back that up showing T Storms building around what appears to be the center. Will see if teh High out around 38N and 50 W and teh Lows just inland in NC will funnle it up and out or will the H build in and move far enough W (as hinted on the 14:52UTC surface map) to act as a blocking High or send the developing Low west.

Water temps are fairly warm in that area. I am terrible at reading winid shear so I wont even guess at that.

Either way it may give us something to pull our hair about.
Troy


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Rabbit
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Re: 98L [Re: troy2]
      #16620 - Fri Jul 23 2004 09:12 PM

I turn off the TV for a few days and something pops up seemingly out of nowhere

this has a good upper air anticyclone, has a strong midlevel circulation, is in a climatologically favorable area, and is not moving very quickly

I'll say this has a fair shot at development, although several other things have this year as well, so like the last system, I'll just wait and see

keeping forecast the same, but will do some major updating if we do not see a depression form in the Atlantic by August 15


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LI Phil
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JB [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16621 - Fri Jul 23 2004 09:15 PM

JB never made that second post...

Bugs...congratulations on your call on 97L. And oh yeah,
Happy Birthday! Ah, to be 21 again...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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