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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Steve
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Re: JB [Re: LI Phil]
      #16622 - Fri Jul 23 2004 09:29 PM

Not so fast on 97L. It's still in the W Caribbean and is flaring up a bit. Until it's in the EPAC or Mexico, it's still a wave who's final chapter is yet to be written. It is currently being enhanced by outside forces, but it's still there.

Steve

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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98L: my forecast [Re: LI Phil]
      #16623 - Fri Jul 23 2004 09:37 PM

I was hoping to be wrong with 97L. As for 98L, I cant say I am that sure what it will do. The only other system that had that good of a chance that was in this area this month was near Bermuda, and this does not seem to have much in common with that one. This seems to have a better chance than the wave did as this isnt undergoing any evident shear. THe reason I am uncertain of what to say is because I have had the weather channel off since my post a few days ago. I checked the floater a few hours ago to see why Celia was still a storm, and SURPRISE! New invest system near Bahamas. I havent tracked this one long, so for the next day or two, I'll leave the forecasting up to you all.

quick note on 97L: the remnant circulation seems to be at 15N84W and is going to move into Nicaragua within the next day.

(question: is there a reason why the invest systems start at 91, and second, i remember the earlier invests: 91L in May, 92L in the gulf, 95L off of Africa a while back, 96L was the Bermuda system, 97L was the wave, and this is 98L. so does anyone know when 93L and 94L were? were there even a 93L or 94L at all?)


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troy2
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Circulations [Re: Rabbit]
      #16624 - Fri Jul 23 2004 09:59 PM

the local ABC guy mentioned that the low just north of the Turks is an upper low and will be moving west, allowing the environment to become more favorable for the other low to develop. TWO mentioned : AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

getting kind of fun


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Anonymous
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Re: "97L" [Re: LI Phil]
      #16625 - Fri Jul 23 2004 10:08 PM

Phil-

my guess is since 97L totally evaporated, it's be a new imvest #; the invest #s are not like the naming convention, they are 'by event', as i understand it. A system from the same wave, since the old one tanked, would be a new #.

sc


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: "97L" [Re: Anonymous]
      #16626 - Fri Jul 23 2004 10:11 PM

something else i've been wondering--are all upgrades or classifications preceded at some point by an invest number?

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Robert
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Sup Troy [Re: Rabbit]
      #16627 - Fri Jul 23 2004 11:41 PM

Whats up troy this system is looking good in terms of surf i hope. This is the best chance of surf for the next month i am praying to god even though i hate the guy we get some surf from it. Models show a 4 ft swell heading past the carolinos on monday into monday night then backing off but past knowledge of the models usually mean we get swell from a signature like that and this time of year indicates it will become a storm. bouys are n and Ne backing NNw ocassionally indicative of a LLCc at the surface. winds are supposed to be south early next weak but if this cranks it will be south west. Keep those fingers crossed.

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Old Sailor
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Re: "97L" [Re: LI Phil]
      #16628 - Sat Jul 24 2004 12:31 AM

Phil:
What I forgot to mention is that if reforms in EPAC then would be a new invest, and looking at IR seems more likely to cause problems in EPAC .


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Steve
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Re: "97L" [Re: Old Sailor]
      #16629 - Sat Jul 24 2004 01:01 AM

EPAC? I'm not so sure. Western Gulf (TX/Mex)? Good possibility. Nice Bastardi notes this afternoon for anyone with Accupro rights or 30 day free access.

TNRCC IR - EPAC Bound?

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Anonymous
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Re: "97L" [Re: Steve]
      #16630 - Sat Jul 24 2004 01:21 AM

It's, it's ...BACK!? Obviously, part of the resurgence is due to ventilation (divergence) related to the upper low over Fl...but, not ALL of the new convection is due to that....can't keep a good wave down??

Sure looks like it is flaring tonight---who knows what tomorrow will bring....

sc


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Old Sailor
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Re: "97L" [Re: Steve]
      #16631 - Sat Jul 24 2004 01:42 AM

Steve:

I was just reading the NHC discussion, hate to cut and paste but take a look at it.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W/86W S OF 20N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS A BETTER SIGNATURE IN THE EPAC AND
POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN THE ITCZ
ACCOUNTING FOR THE MORNING RAOBS FROM COSTA RICA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE OVER W NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA COULD BE
ENHANCED BY THE WAVE.
Dave


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DustDuchess
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Re: "97L" [Re: Anonymous]
      #16632 - Sat Jul 24 2004 01:44 AM

I will remind you of 97L and its big fat grin

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Tropics Guy
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Re: "97L" [Re: DustDuchess]
      #16633 - Sat Jul 24 2004 02:16 AM

Yep, 97L is up to it's old tricks again., seems to be coming back to life, remants of it are firing back up SW of Jamaica.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

TG

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Steve
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Re: "97L" [Re: Old Sailor]
      #16634 - Sat Jul 24 2004 02:24 AM

That's the other item. I think that might/could/kinda be associated with either the remnants of the split trof/ULL that backed off ahead of it or maybe some of the energy from 97L's defunct LLC (but that would most likely have traveled further west of Costa Rica by now I think).

What I'm more referring to in the TNRCC high-res IR photo is the energy coming in around 15N/80W. It is the part of the wave axis of 97L. (As discussed, when it hit the dry zone, a piece of energy shearned north into the surface trof, but the wave remained sans its invest). In Bastardi's world, It was never supposed to do anything until it got to the Gulf anyway. And he had it slowing down from a week ago. Phil (and of course the rest of us) were on that wave for at least a week. There was a reason. It was packing energy for whatever was in the way. I think it was Bobbi who called it a girl storm (fickle) and mentioned the pretty strong nightly/diurnal pulses. So 97L seeded 98L and perhaps still has something in store for itself. I always thought it was going to develop but just like early storms will sometimes get ya', I was somewhat tricked by its old MLC that spawned all of that convection into/with the pattern. Speaking of patterns, one more prop for Bastardi. He was talking 'watch SW Atlantic AND WC/GOM' from 7 or 8 days out. As always, he is the master of pattern recognition. Whether anything develops or not, Bobbi-watching IR colors are in both places.

For my money, the Western Atlantic Basin looks the best it has so far this year. What's interesting (to me) is the continued evolution of the 2004 season. It appears to be one where we have a real shot at a couple of long tracked Cape Verde storms with very real ([tm]) implications for North America and the Islands. We'll have to watch the continued evolution of the Altantic water temperature profiles to see how ridging will be supported. So far, the evolution has been outstanding (if you want to see long tracked storms, which for better or worse we all do. Don't lie ).

Finally. Props out for whichever Cornelii works for Google. I don't even have to search the site anymore to find something. Almost anything tropical I search for has a CFHC link in the top 3 results. Heh.

This post brought to you buy buzz.

Steve

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Anonymous
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Re: "98L [Re: Steve]
      #16635 - Sat Jul 24 2004 02:43 AM

has anyone noticed that the NRL site changed the position of the low to now 26.2 n 70.1 west 1010 mb 25 kts winds, and looks like slow convection firing all around, thats a big difference from this afternoon of 29.3 n 73.0 w and 20 kts?

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: "98L [Re: Anonymous]
      #16636 - Sat Jul 24 2004 02:50 AM

I was going to check on NRL in a bit. Thanks for the heads up.

For anyone who reads this - go to the Goes 8 Water Vapor and loop it 30 times.

1) Start the loop at 11:15UTC and watch one of my boys cross 60 West @ 35 North. LMAO (don't edit me Ed). /Fun with weather patterns

2) I could be wrong, but it looks like the northern axis of 97L is emerging across (disassociating with?) upper level energy in the Bahamas. Watch the bright white clouds enhance as they move through the area (in the above loop).

Steve

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HanKFranK
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Re: "98L [Re: Steve]
      #16638 - Sat Jul 24 2004 05:23 AM

98L i suppose is the answer to that system in the subtropics i've been thinking on for some time. the trough is finally splitting, and when the upper air patterns reorient there should be a decent environment for further development, though it is far from a certainty. if something were to develop north carolina would be the most likely of targets. no news there.. the outer banks are ALWAYS the most likely target on the east coast.
97L's ghost is hacking and coughing, perhaps trying to rise from the dead. i'm not too optimistic, but anything bastardi is pondering as possible i take as credible interest.
east atlanitc not ready to give us anything now, though a couple o' trouble areas could eventually do something.. highly unlikely however.
one week to go in july, and MJO going positive.. and in spite of that the basin keeps trying to do something. nothing out there right now promising to be storm #1... but there's still time this month.
HF 0523z24july


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James88
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Re: "98L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #16639 - Sat Jul 24 2004 09:04 AM

Well, 98L isn't looking too great this morning, while what was 97L is looking quite good. The wave over by the Cape Verdes still looks fairly strong as well. It's only a matter of time...

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Storm Cooper
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Re: "98L [Re: James88]
      #16640 - Sat Jul 24 2004 01:24 PM

I am inclined to think that 97L will be the first real game in town... interested to see how well it can hold on today.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: "98L [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #16641 - Sat Jul 24 2004 01:52 PM

You may be right Coop. I'm also watching the wave that is northeast of Puerto Rico - looks like it could have some potential, but I haven't had time to really check out the environment yet.
Cheers,
ED


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Cycloneye
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Re: "98L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #16642 - Sat Jul 24 2004 01:55 PM

ED about that wave NE of PR the enviroment is not favorable because it is interacting with an upper low to it's north and divergence is high there and that is why I dont see at this time development in that area.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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