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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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bobbi
Unregistered




beautiful analysis Mr. Mann [Re: Rob_M]
      #16867 - Wed Jul 28 2004 07:47 PM

beautiful, good job .. really
sort of painted a whole picture of the Atlantic
thanks


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bobbi
Unregistered




face to face observation [Re: doug]
      #16868 - Wed Jul 28 2004 08:00 PM

(off-topic post)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 29 2004 02:25 AM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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my analysis [Re: bobbi]
      #16869 - Wed Jul 28 2004 08:41 PM

First off, I think politics kept 98L from being classified--NHC didn't want to scare people with a TD or TS during the DNC in Mass.

now for my analysis of the forecast models

first off, I see nothing on the ECMWF over the Gulf that catches my eye, and that particular model has a history of inaccuracy in recent years (example, weakening Isabel after three days last year on the Sep 7 run)

the UKMET, which is also rather unreliable, shows a weak low in the Gulf

the NOGAPS, which is moderately accurate, shows a very broad low in the Gulf in a few days, but weakens it

the CMC, a somewhat reliable model, shows a possible TD near SC, which everyone else seems to have seen also. I think it is possible in a few days, and may be like TD2 in 1994 (formed from a front, pressure at 1015 at landfall on July 20)

the AVN, which seems to be the most reliable, still shows something comming off of Africa in about 4 days, but nothing in the Gulf. Interestingly, the African low is forecast to be rather compact and organized by August 2, with pressure between 1004 and 1006. It has held with this forecast for a week now, and a "blocker" wave has come off of Africa, blocking the high pressure and forcing it north, and may lower the pressure enough in the eastern Atlantic for the next wave to survive and strengthen.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: my analysis [Re: Rabbit]
      #16870 - Wed Jul 28 2004 09:15 PM

I'ma take issue with your analysis of the models Rabbit. Go to Google and search "known biases of forecast models" for the real story. Saying the UKMet and ECMWF are "unreliable", but that the AVN and NOGAPS are (or moderately are) is out there. Some of the models may perform better than others in certain circumstances, and everyone has their preferences. But what you posted is not accurate. (No harm no foul IMHO.)

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered




Re: my analysis [Re: Steve]
      #16871 - Wed Jul 28 2004 09:30 PM

WHoah ho' thar! The UKMET and EC unreliable?........I don't think so. They are excellent models for picking up large scale patterns, and quite serious when they bark. NOGAPS throws a right bias into everything and really so does the GFS, along with the convective feedback problems it has had (and alledgedly fixed). AVN/GFS is notorious for spurious lows in the tropics as well. All models have their flaws/biases for sure, but have their strengths as well. Read some of the EPCs thought processes for insight, since they use the models to validate/blend/discount solutions every day. These discussions are great for learning and identifying when particular models are exhibiting their biases and when they are dead on in a given situation. Remember that models are tools. We need to learn the biases in order to use them properly

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: my analysis [Re: Steve]
      #16872 - Wed Jul 28 2004 09:31 PM

Anybody see what JB has to say today? He's probably in heaven right now with all the models spittin tropical lows around everywhere. I know he loves it

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: my analysis [Re: Anonymous]
      #16873 - Wed Jul 28 2004 09:38 PM

Oops, that last post was me, I got excited and forgot to sign in. By the way, do ya'll think its worth the money to sign up for AccuPro? Im thinking about so I dont have to keep beggin to see what JB says lol Have a good one ya'll.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: my analysis [Re: Anonymous]
      #16874 - Wed Jul 28 2004 09:41 PM

Agreed SteveH. The main problem I have with the ECMWF is that it tends to bias southward waves that it doesn't believe are going to develop. Sometimes it's an outiler, but often it is correct. I trust it more for overall pattern stuff (and the UKMet before I would trust the AVN/GFS suite and certainly more than NOGAPS). The biggest problem with GFS is it's inability to factor warm water in the Western Atlantic always wanting to drop a trof off the east coast in Days 10-15 - also the related convective feedback problem you alluded to.

Anony,

Nothing earth shattering on Joe this morning. I went and checked him out after I posted and he just said that he's watching too and expressed a few concerns.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: my analysis [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16875 - Wed Jul 28 2004 09:45 PM

Droop,

Sign up for the 30 day free trial and see for yourself. I only keep it between June and October and they don't have a problem with that. They understand that some people don't really care about winter weather (this guy) as it doesn't really have any major effects on them. But if you give your information, you can cancel within 30 days and they'll never charge your credit card. This is my second year of doing it and I plan to carry the service again next year unless we're in some raging El Nino or whatever.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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TWO [Re: Steve]
      #16876 - Wed Jul 28 2004 09:46 PM

Has anyone saw the newest TWO? It says theres a weak area of low pressure of the FL penisula and conditions appear favorable for development in the Eastern Gulf. Intresting, those models may be on to something.

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Re: TWO [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16877 - Wed Jul 28 2004 09:50 PM

By the way, thanks for the advice Steve. Sounds like a good idea.

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: TWO [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16878 - Wed Jul 28 2004 09:51 PM

Hey droop,
yeah i noticed that too. This could possibly be related to the circulation that was apparent south of Andros Island yesterday. If that circulation has persisted in some form and travelled west then it would tie up with the location of the weak low that the TWO alluded to. If i remember rightly some models have been hinting at something in this region for a few days now too. The NHC have changed their tune a little from the 1130 TWO which said development wasnt expected. However, no invest up yet so nothing imminent i guess.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Re: TWO [Re: Rich B]
      #16879 - Wed Jul 28 2004 10:01 PM

Yep Rich, Nothing Imminent, something to watch though. The ETA has had a closed low in the eastern gulf for quite a few runs now. I looked at a few other models and they had the same idea. Have to wait and see.

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HanKFranK
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suspicion [Re: Rich B]
      #16880 - Wed Jul 28 2004 10:05 PM

there's an awful lot of low level convergence near the florida peninsula. notice that low cloud motions in the gulf are from the west, while in the atlantic they're out of the east to the decaying trough oriented nne from the bahamas. several models are alluding to disturbed weather there, but none are really taking off. i have to admit that upper conditions are decidedly neutral, with no real evacuation mechanism in place for convective growth.. unless an outflow jet from whatever thunderstorm activity near south florida were to hook into the nearby upper flow.
away east the disturbance between hispaniola and bermuda looks about like yesterday. not making any hay right now.. the trades are blasting away underneath the upper low and it's corresponding convection enhancement area and will have to subside some before anything can get started there.. closer in as the trough remnants near the bahamas to off hatteras decay they could potentially spawn something else along the lines of erstwhile 98L.
the MDR out in the east atlantic has nothing on the burner. only other thing of interest to me is that the trades are weaker at low latitudes in the caribbean and the ITCZ is inching northward near panama.. nothing progged on the models but something could try to sneak in down there next few days. end of the month GFS has yet another good wave coming off africa. it's hinting at development and has been with some consistency, so it will at least be worth watching.
that's the story. nothing is happening just yet.
HF 2205z28july


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bobbi
Unregistered




do not try this while alone [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16881 - Wed Jul 28 2004 10:05 PM

spin this loop.. set it to faster.. FASTER

do not try this alone, you will become hypnotized, careful
be warned

but you can sure see the movement of systems/steering currents

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html


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LI Phil
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Illin' all day [Re: bobbi]
      #16882 - Wed Jul 28 2004 11:12 PM

E'en all. Still sick. Can't add too much to the tropical discussion, and haven't been online all day, so I'll leave it with this: TWC said watch the GOM for development in the next couple of days. I s'pose a blind squirrel finds an acorn every so often, so they could be right. But the time is drawing neigh for the real action to happen, so as steve said it's wait and watch time (or was that watch and wait?).

HF, obviously your spelling admonitions have gone for naught. Such a simple word, too.

Accuwx pro is da bomb! And not just for Joe B (although it'd be worth is just for his commentary). I'll be keeping it year round as winterwx up here is something I need to keep on top of. Agree w/Steve-o, try it free for 30 days. But you'll be keeping it for the whole season...I gar-ohn-tee it.

What else? Guess the mess east of the Bahamas needs to be watched. Glad Rob/Jason are back posting. Bobbi, sorry you got wet -- isn't there some law you have to carry an umbrella in South Fla in the summer? And I guess the nepalese thingy worked, because now they have their worst floods in something like 10 years. James88, didn't get any rain today, but got dumped on last night, with a beautiful light show thrown in.

Guess das it fo' now. Depending on how I feel, I may go check some loops & models. Either way, I'll check in again.

LI Phil

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 29 2004 02:34 AM)


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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 60
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Re: Discussion [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16883 - Wed Jul 28 2004 11:19 PM

Quote:

Rob a question despite the no storm formations in july.Will the independent group leave the numbers the same 14/8/4 or some minor changes will happen with your outlook? I agree that everything is comming into place just as the heart of the season draws closer.


We're keeping 14/8/4...no reason to lower.

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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bobbi
Unregistered




umbrellas in florida [Re: LI Phil]
      #16885 - Thu Jul 29 2004 12:02 AM

no... no law and i hate carrying them
warm rain
dont see that this is going to develop but then it probably will as im always wrong with gulf systems

twc tonight insists we are getting more rain tomorrow and they seem to be bullish on the idea of a depression forming in the SE Gulf than around this room

odd to see Steve bullish on tropical development

anyway...feel better phil, wish i could make you feel better
and keep watching.. who knows


Bobbi

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 29 2004 02:37 AM)


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Alligators on a leash... [Re: bobbi]
      #16886 - Thu Jul 29 2004 12:15 AM

(off-topic nuked at 10:40pm - lousy forecast)

Can we please get something going in the tropix? I mean, c'mon. No TD even (although several on this board, myself included, would beg to differ).

Oh well, August 1 (and Old Sailor Dave's Diamond Jubliee) will be here Sunday. Pretty much guaranteed of some action after then...

Cheers,

LI Phil

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 29 2004 02:40 AM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 293
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Re: Illin' all day [Re: LI Phil]
      #16887 - Thu Jul 29 2004 12:31 AM

You know Guys, Girls,
I said August 1 my birthday more as joke but it may end up in my back yard on St. Pete beach, Old saying be carefull of what you wish for, Just need to watch the low north of Tampa Bay and other low in south FL moving west . Models not sure when or where this low is drifting too... It is in a favorable area.

Dave


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