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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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DustDuchess
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Polk County Florida
Re: umbrellas in florida [Re: Unregistered User]
      #16888 - Thu Jul 29 2004 12:45 AM

Regarding TWC being Bullish on the SE possible weather, would it possibly be that they are suffering from a ratings drop with no tropical storms to report on besides old film footage and too much national competition for political events? This is a serious question and needs pondering for when complacency issues plague real evacuation attempts. Those weather systems that appear to be forming near and around South Florida may only be labor pains of an on-time tropical season, but the systems are so close that the shortest distance between a deadly weekend of unexpected storm and the official report is the Cable weather channels. Hopefully those two little wannabees will be all wet and no problem to land.

--------------------
Good or bad, weather is all there is.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Alligators on a leash... [Re: LI Phil]
      #16897 - Thu Jul 29 2004 02:55 AM

The fun is over - stay on topic.
Use the Everything & Nothing forum for your political commentary. I believe its well suited to the 'Nothing' part of that Forum.
Keep in mind that someone's good post always gets lost in the shuffle when you do this.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Recovery of an Earlier Post [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #16899 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:02 AM

From: WXMAN RICHIE

Hi All,

I am back for another exciting year. I have been away for most of the summer, but I haven't missed much so far. Now that I am back, the season will begin. August 1st is just around the corner and I think the season is just about ready to kick in. Looks like the gulf just to the west of Key West is the place to watch for the next day or so.


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James88
Weather Master


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Potential? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #16901 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:05 AM

The latest TWO sites two areas for potential development:-

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA...AND
SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

The system east of the Bahamas looks like it is becoming better organised, so it would seem to be the area to watch. Could this be the system that the CMC model wants to take into South Carolina?


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Potential? [Re: James88]
      #16902 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:33 AM

Well will we get to August 1st without a named system? Quite possibly. But will we get to August 1st without a classified system? Well that is a whole different question!

The first possible system is the one that has tracked slowly from the Bahamas and is now over the Florida Peninsula, heading slowly towards the eastern Gulf. This is a poorly organised system, with only marginal upper-level support at this time. Its proximity to land could also inhibit any significant development, at least for the next 24 hours.

The second area, and the one with higher possibilities, is the area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas. This region has seen disturbed weather persisting for days now. As the TWO states, and recent satellite imagery shows, this area is becoming a little better organised. Again, upper-level conditions arent that great, but are slowly improving. Tie the slowly improving upper level conditions with the corresponding organisation, and it looks like we could see something develop from this, possibly even before 1st August.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1236
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Re: Potential? [Re: Rich B]
      #16903 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:09 AM

Miami tv insists the system is "stalled out" and pumping up massive amounts of water.

Is the system stalled out?
Want your opinon here.

Tons of rain but don't see any wind, not even during the rain.
Almost reminds me of Fall rain when the fronts stall out and don't make it down all the way.

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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James88
Weather Master


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Re: Potential? [Re: LoisCane]
      #16904 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:23 AM

The system east of the Bahamas looks like it may have a little spin to it, and it kinda looks like Danny did last year before he formed. I wouldn't be surprised to see an invest in the near future.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
question... [Re: James88]
      #16905 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:40 AM

Can both form?

Bahamas and Gulf?

nice rainbow in miami..it lies...gonna rain some more
am sure

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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James88
Weather Master


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Re: question... [Re: LoisCane]
      #16906 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:51 AM

The Gulf system could form, but since the upper level winds are only marginally favourable at the moment, I wouldn't expect anything in the immediate future. Maybe in a couple of days. The Bahamas system meanwhile looks to have good potential to develop based on the TWO and its current appearance on satellite imagery. Whatever happens this is probably our best and last chance to get a classified system before August sets in.

Edited by James88 (Thu Jul 29 2004 11:51 AM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Bahamian System [Re: James88]
      #16908 - Thu Jul 29 2004 12:46 PM

I've seen on TV News 12 that this Bahamian system will move WNW and the 'arrow' indicated an East central Florida hit; isn't it too soon to extrapolate a pathway?

Anyhow I agree that this may become a South Carolinian issue down the road as these storms would normally be routed in that direction.

Just a guess at this point.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Puerto Rico
99L invest for east of Bahamas [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16909 - Thu Jul 29 2004 12:52 PM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Ok here we go with this area that has potential so let's see what happens in coming days.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered




Re: Bahamian System [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16910 - Thu Jul 29 2004 01:00 PM

I'm not sure of the strength of the ridging to the north of Invest 99L. East central Florida generally does not see systems this far north hit them. They usually head for the Carolinas. However, this is the time of year when we have to watch the Bermuda high, and its strength. First lets see when they put coordinates. I'm figuring about 24.8N/70.5 W. Interesting..........

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Bahamian System [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16911 - Thu Jul 29 2004 01:02 PM

Since I first noted the Florida straits low yesterday afternoon, it seems, just from radar, that the low has actually moved about 100 miles west and is now centered over Key West. Radar confirms, to me at least, that it is a closed low; but development is being inhibited by the upper feature. This will all change, IMO in a day or so as ridging should appear in the lower gulf coast which could support development. I would agree with the NHC that the next 48 hours will tell with this.
The Bahamas system may go sooner, as it seems ready to rotate out over the influence of the upper low which was two days ago to its NW and now seems about to play it self out to its SW. This should continue generally toward the SC coast, and I think will be picked up in two-three days by the trough in the midwest now.
This same trough will create the ridging over the GOM during that same period and influence th development and future of that system too.
My guess: both get classified, Bahamas first with the GOM system a landfalling TS Monday or Tuesday, and the Bahamas system goes to sea.
We'll see!

--------------------
doug


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James88
Weather Master


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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Bahamian System [Re: doug]
      #16912 - Thu Jul 29 2004 01:08 PM

So perhaps we'll have Alex and Bonnie within a week! I think that newly upgraded 99L has a very good chance at development, and it should be watched closely. Just my opinion. The next TWO will give us a better idea of the situation.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? [Re: MikeC]
      #16913 - Thu Jul 29 2004 01:20 PM

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992004) ON 20040729 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040729 1200 040730 0000 040730 1200 040731 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 71.0W 25.8N 72.4W 26.7N 74.0W 27.7N 75.7W
BAMM 25.0N 71.0W 25.9N 72.9W 27.0N 74.7W 28.1N 76.7W
A98E 25.0N 71.0W 25.5N 73.2W 26.2N 74.9W 27.4N 76.3W
LBAR 25.0N 71.0W 25.9N 72.9W 27.1N 74.6W 28.2N 76.4W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040731 1200 040801 1200 040802 1200 040803 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.6N 77.5W 30.0N 80.2W 31.0N 81.6W 34.3N 78.4W
BAMM 29.3N 78.7W 31.6N 81.5W 34.6N 81.9W 37.8N 76.9W
A98E 28.7N 77.9W 30.7N 80.8W 32.6N 81.2W 36.2N 75.1W
LBAR 29.7N 78.1W 32.1N 79.5W 34.5N 78.5W 35.9N 73.8W
SHIP 52KTS 56KTS 59KTS 60KTS
DSHP 52KTS 46KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 24.5N LONM12 = 68.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 24.0N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


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James88
Weather Master


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Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? [Re: Anonymous]
      #16914 - Thu Jul 29 2004 02:15 PM

Has Joe B. got anything to say on 99L or the system in the GOM?

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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? [Re: James88]
      #16915 - Thu Jul 29 2004 02:25 PM

Back at work, still feelin' low. Here's from JB real quick:

TROPICAL TROUBLES LURK FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND AND GULF COAST WEST OF 90 WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? [Re: LI Phil]
      #16916 - Thu Jul 29 2004 02:39 PM

90L invest up for SE Gulf

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...-EPAC-05E.DARBY,04-EPAC-06E.NONAME,04-WPAC-13W.NAMTHEUN,04-ATL-90L.INVEST,04-ATL-99L.INVEST,&STYLE=tables


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


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Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? [Re: caneman]
      #16917 - Thu Jul 29 2004 02:45 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Here is the more smaller link for 90L.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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teal61
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Is There Something Brewing in the Gulf ? [Re: caneman]
      #16918 - Thu Jul 29 2004 02:45 PM

From some of the AFD's in Florida.....

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AT KEY WEST AND MIAMI VERIFIED A VERY WET TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
QUITE HIGH AT 2.4 TO 2.5 INCHES. K-INDEX VALUE WAS HIGH AT 39.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO CELL MOVEMENT...
SUGGESTING A CYCLONIC CENTER NOW NEAR BIG PINE KEY. NEWLY DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF THERE ARE NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NW...WHILE
WEST OF THERE MOTION REMAINS GENERALLY TOWARD THE S OR SW. THIS
CYCLONIC SPIN...HOWEVER...IS ALOFT AND APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING
WESTWARD. MEANWHILE...SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND PATTERN AT THIS TIME
INDICATES A BROAD ILL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA WEST OF THE KEYS.
KEYS SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO SE NEAR 10 KT OVER UPPER KEYS
AREAS...ARE LIGHT S TO SW OVER LOWER KEYS...BUT AGAIN REMAIN
AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.FORECASTS...
INTERMEDIATE ETA RUN (06Z) HAS DISPLACED ITS FORECASTED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN BEFORE...SHOWING A
WEAK LOW SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS BY 8 PM THIS EVENING...WHILE GFS IN
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS SHOWING A WEAK LOW CENTER WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS IN THE GULF. CURRENT WIND TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE
GFS SOLUTION...BUT THE OVERALL SCENE STILL IS ONE OF A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SE GULF...AND A WET PATTERN OVER
THE KEYS. NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC ZONES IS ANTICIPATED...WITH HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SMALL CLUSTERS
AND LINES ARE FORMING IN THE DEEPER SE TO S FLOW...WHICH COULD BRING
THE ANTICIPATED HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STRAITS INTO THE
KEYS.





SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN GULF WITH WEAK LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS SE
SECTIONS OF THE GULF AND A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW FL
COAST. AT LOW LVLS...850 AND 700 MB...12Z ANALYSIS SHOW TROPICAL
WAVE/TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE SW GULF COAST...NAPLES...STRETCHING SE
INTO THE FL STRAITS.

A look at the visuals this morning seems to show some broad rotation in the vicinity of the Florida keys, and now with the new invest 90L up thing are getting a little more interesting.


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