joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
|
|
Now we're talking tropics. Signs are the doors are about to swing open for the season. 90L and 99L are up, with 99L looking better at the moment.It may have some impact on north FL weather by the weekend, although NWS/Jax is not reflecting that in it's forecast yet. Clouds not showing signs of alot of shear, and begining to gather around possible center. Cool! Let's go Alex, this is you.......
90L is a bit more of a long term project, going to take some time if this baby is to get going. If it does, NO to PEN would be my guess as to who might see it, though I saw a model somewhere take it further west. Still a couple of days away, IMO.
Some models insist on a long tracker kicking in within 7-10 days as well, right in the sweet zone of the E Atlantic. It's time to crank this thing up.
Meanwhile, I'm watching 99L. Come on Alex, I know you're in there somewhere......The is taking forever posting the 11am ....
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
It would appear we will have at least 1 named storm before Sunday, August 1st.
Welcome , Alex! (East of the Bahamas)
The 11:30 Update does seem to think it may go to Florida (north that is, but if it does go WEST NW than anywhere north of West Palm Beach can be the destination.
Just one humble opinion. Still too early as it depends on the ridge coming down.
--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
|
|
Recons for both on friday if needed.....soon, friends, very soon. It's out there.....
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
There is now a reconnaisance flight planned for each system tomorrow.
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Sorry Joe  - same idea at the same time!
|
Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
|
|
The center is critical and its pretty much where I thought earlier at 24.8N/70.5Wish. My thought that this would go to the Carolinas is in doubt, since it seems to be at the southern most area that others have been saying. Maybe JAX will see something from this  Either way, the weather along the eastern seaboard from south to north should get interesting this weekend.....surf's up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
|
joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
|
|
No problem James. Keep an eye on them for me while I'm at work this afternoon and evening.....even though I do get the web site on my cell phone now. That was my upgrade for this season, never leave home without your 
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Yeah!  The is definately one of those things you should never be without. Cheers!
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
well this is interesting if not exciting as we watch the attempted birth of a system in the EGOM close up. We on this board were on this early, before even the posted an interest.
Dry air is pushing down into the GOM system and is interfering with outflow, but as I said this will relax in the next day or so.
The forecasting will depend on the mid- west trough for both systems, as I definitely believe the Bahamas will be classified. I still see two TS in this. EDS
--------------------
doug
|
bobbi
Unregistered
|
|
Watching and reading what you have to say closely.
Still very unconvinced how these two might play out and at the same time have an effect upon eachother's future path.
Not sure anyone has a perfect handle on it.
Watching various versions of http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
as well.
Bobbi
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Great, first good action of the season and my Internet goes out. Back now though.
In a PM from Ed on Monday night, he gave me a heads up on the Bahama system. Didn't post on it, but the man is GOOD. This was before Mike put up the new thread.
Cheers,
LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
NOUS42 KNHC 291530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 29 JULY 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JUL 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-061
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 30/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01CCA INVEST
C. 30/1430Z
D. 25.0N 85.0W
E. 30/1600Z TO 30/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 30/1500Z
D. 28.0N 77.0W
E. 30/1730Z TO 30/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 31/1200Z
IF EITHER SYSEM DEVELOPS.
This is the plan of the day for both systems if necessary.The next 24 hours will be crucial for the squadron to take off and fly into those.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Wow...great foresight! Looks like Ed may get his 1st storm date bang on! (Or perhaps a day early). 99L is looking good - convection is fading just a tad to the north but is being maintained to the south.
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
It appears the center of circulation is located at 70W 25N.
--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
|
|
FINALLY some action to talk about, looks like we may get our first named storm before Aug. Right now 99L seems like it may make it to TD or storm status before 90L, as it appears to be spinning up quicker than the gulf system.
TG
--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
The future Alex is starting his tropical dance!
--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
Looks like things are going to get busy near the U.S. during this weekend and during the upcoming week.
99L doesn't have a circulation at the surface yet, and that is its biggest problem. If you think the system looks good now, wait until the shear subsides even more. All of the models are forecasting a decrease in shear near the SE Coast. I'd say that we are going to probably see development out of this. It just needs some time to develop a surface circ. I think the conditions favor this scenario. I guess track could be interesting too. Gut feeling says NW with an eventual brush with coastal NC, but things get interesting (and tough to figure out) if the system stalls towards the latter part of the weekend.
The GOM system is showing life as well. The thunderstorm activity in the southeastern Gulf is already becoming stronger. I think the first test for this system is nighttime persistence. If it persists overnight, then I can really see things starting to roll tomorrow. The upper-level winds also look favorable.
Alex and Bonnie within a few days? Don't rule it out. Heck, we could even see by Monday if believe in the African development that the is showing.
not much longer...
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Here are the models for 99L:
99L-1
And the recon graphics:
99L recon
And 90L:
90L
90L-1
And the recon graphics:
90L recon
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Alex K
Unregistered
|
|
99L looks like its starting to wind up. Convection is concentrating on the southern side.
Not to sure about 90L, but give it time
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
I see 99L as being stationery.
--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
