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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


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Re: Is There Something Brewing East of Bahamas? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #16919 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:10 PM

Now we're talking tropics. Signs are the doors are about to swing open for the season. 90L and 99L are up, with 99L looking better at the moment.It may have some impact on north FL weather by the weekend, although NWS/Jax is not reflecting that in it's forecast yet. Clouds not showing signs of alot of shear, and begining to gather around possible center. Cool! Let's go Alex, this is you.......

90L is a bit more of a long term project, going to take some time if this baby is to get going. If it does, NO to PEN would be my guess as to who might see it, though I saw a model somewhere take it further west. Still a couple of days away, IMO.

Some models insist on a long tracker kicking in within 7-10 days as well, right in the sweet zone of the E Atlantic. It's time to crank this thing up.

Meanwhile, I'm watching 99L. Come on Alex, I know you're in there somewhere......The NHC is taking forever posting the 11am TWO....


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: joepub1]
      #16920 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:20 PM

It would appear we will have at least 1 named storm before Sunday, August 1st.

Welcome , Alex! (East of the Bahamas)

The 11:30 Update does seem to think it may go to Florida (north that is, but if it does go WEST NW than anywhere north of West Palm Beach can be the destination.

Just one humble opinion. Still too early as it depends on the ridge coming down.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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joepub1
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Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16921 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:23 PM

Recons for both on friday if needed.....soon, friends, very soon. It's out there.....

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James88
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Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16922 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:25 PM

There is now a reconnaisance flight planned for each system tomorrow.

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James88
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Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: James88]
      #16923 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:26 PM

Sorry Joe - same idea at the same time!

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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered




Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16924 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:28 PM

The center is critical and its pretty much where I thought earlier at 24.8N/70.5Wish. My thought that this would go to the Carolinas is in doubt, since it seems to be at the southern most area that others have been saying. Maybe JAX will see something from this Either way, the weather along the eastern seaboard from south to north should get interesting this weekend.....surf's up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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joepub1
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Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: James88]
      #16925 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:31 PM

No problem James. Keep an eye on them for me while I'm at work this afternoon and evening.....even though I do get the NHC web site on my cell phone now. That was my upgrade for this season, never leave home without your NHC

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James88
Weather Master


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Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: joepub1]
      #16926 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:33 PM

Yeah! The NHC is definately one of those things you should never be without. Cheers!

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doug
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Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: Steve hirsch.]
      #16927 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:36 PM

well this is interesting if not exciting as we watch the attempted birth of a system in the EGOM close up. We on this board were on this early, before even the NHC posted an interest.
Dry air is pushing down into the GOM system and is interfering with outflow, but as I said this will relax in the next day or so.
The forecasting will depend on the mid- west trough for both systems, as I definitely believe the Bahamas will be classified. I still see two TS in this. EDS

--------------------
doug


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bobbi
Unregistered




real quietly watching both systems... [Re: doug]
      #16928 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:49 PM

Watching and reading what you have to say closely.
Still very unconvinced how these two might play out and at the same time have an effect upon eachother's future path.

Not sure anyone has a perfect handle on it.
Watching various versions of http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

as well.

Bobbi


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LI Phil
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Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: doug]
      #16929 - Thu Jul 29 2004 03:50 PM

Great, first good action of the season and my Internet goes out. Back now though.

In a PM from Ed on Monday night, he gave me a heads up on the Bahama system. Didn't post on it, but the man is GOOD. This was before Mike put up the new thread.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


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Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: LI Phil]
      #16930 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:10 PM

NOUS42 KNHC 291530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 29 JULY 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JUL 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-061

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 30/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01CCA INVEST
C. 30/1430Z
D. 25.0N 85.0W
E. 30/1600Z TO 30/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 30/1500Z
D. 28.0N 77.0W
E. 30/1730Z TO 30/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 31/1200Z
IF EITHER SYSEM DEVELOPS.

This is the plan of the day for both systems if necessary.The next 24 hours will be crucial for the squadron to take off and fly into those.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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James88
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Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: LI Phil]
      #16931 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:13 PM

Wow...great foresight! Looks like Ed may get his 1st storm date bang on! (Or perhaps a day early). 99L is looking good - convection is fading just a tad to the north but is being maintained to the south.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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99L [Re: James88]
      #16932 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:16 PM

It appears the center of circulation is located at 70W 25N.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Tropics Guy
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Re: There is something BIg east of the Bahamas! [Re: James88]
      #16933 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:18 PM

FINALLY some action to talk about, looks like we may get our first named storm before Aug. Right now 99L seems like it may make it to TD or storm status before 90L, as it appears to be spinning up quicker than the gulf system.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: There is something BIG east of the Bahamas! [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #16934 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:22 PM

The future Alex is starting his tropical dance!

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Kevin
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Pretty impressive [Re: James88]
      #16935 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:23 PM

Looks like things are going to get busy near the U.S. during this weekend and during the upcoming week.

99L doesn't have a circulation at the surface yet, and that is its biggest problem. If you think the system looks good now, wait until the shear subsides even more. All of the models are forecasting a decrease in shear near the SE Coast. I'd say that we are going to probably see development out of this. It just needs some time to develop a surface circ. I think the conditions favor this scenario. I guess track could be interesting too. Gut feeling says NW with an eventual brush with coastal NC, but things get interesting (and tough to figure out) if the system stalls towards the latter part of the weekend.

The GOM system is showing life as well. The thunderstorm activity in the southeastern Gulf is already becoming stronger. I think the first test for this system is nighttime persistence. If it persists overnight, then I can really see things starting to roll tomorrow. The upper-level winds also look favorable.

Alex and Bonnie within a few days? Don't rule it out. Heck, we could even see Charley by Monday if believe in the African development that the GFS is showing.

not much longer...


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LI Phil
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Models [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #16936 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:24 PM

Here are the models for 99L:

99L-1

And the recon graphics:

99L recon

And 90L:

90L
90L-1

And the recon graphics:

90L recon

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Alex K
Unregistered




Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16937 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:24 PM

99L looks like its starting to wind up. Convection is concentrating on the southern side.

Not to sure about 90L, but give it time


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: 99L invest for east of Bahamas [Re: Alex K]
      #16938 - Thu Jul 29 2004 04:34 PM

I see 99L as being stationery.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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