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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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GR FLA
Unregistered




Future Movement??? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #16968 - Thu Jul 29 2004 08:47 PM

Does anyone think the system forming east of the Bahamas will move due west???

Will the high/ridge establish itself in time for it to move west, any ideas, here in Florida, concerned!!!


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LI Phil
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JB Afternoon Update [Re: GR FLA]
      #16969 - Thu Jul 29 2004 08:55 PM

Will try to be brief and paraphrase. JB's very concerned with 90L. Although there is "no objective guidance" for this scenario, he is worried that we are looking at something that if it gets to 45 mph, it could get to 115 in the same amount of time it took it to go from what it is now to a 45-mph storm. He's not calling for this to happen, just throwing it out there. This is due to the fact that the water there is 2 degrees celsius above normal which could speed development. He stresses there is no need for panic.

He's less gung ho on 99L. His take on this on is that it looks more like an elliptical hybrid that will run out of time to pull in strong winds, but can still be a pain in the neck, and if the Gulf potential wasn't there, would obviously be a bigger story.

Very interesting indeed...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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alan`
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Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching [Re: GR FLA]
      #16970 - Thu Jul 29 2004 08:58 PM

Here's a chart of the pressure for the past five days at 42003.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_param.phtml?$station=42003$pres$E


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DroopGB31
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Re: JB Afternoon Update [Re: LI Phil]
      #16972 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:03 PM

Thanks for sharing Phil, Im always intrested about what JB has to say. I agree with him too, water temps are around 87 degrees in the eastern gulf last time I checked. I got a question for ya'll though, look at the East Gulf bouy data, Station 42023 has winds due East right now, albeit light winds, but about 150/200 miles south DRYF1 has winds light out of the West. Could this be the start of a LLC? Im gonna check some satellites from this area. Any comments welcomed.

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Jamiewx
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5:30pm TWO [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16973 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:14 PM

TWO still counting both systems for development, now saying both have the potential to become tropical depressions.

Here it is a little early too

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Showers and thunderstorms persist in association with a broad area
of low pressure centered in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near
the Dry Tortugas. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development...and a tropical depression could form during the next
day or two as the system moves slowly west-northwestward. An Air
Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system tomorrow afternoon...if necessary.
The area of disturbed weather centered a few hundred miles east of
the northwestern Bahamas continues to slowly become better
organized. Upper-level winds are becoming more favorable for
development...and this system also has the potential to become a
tropical depression as it moves generally northwestward during the
next day or two. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system tomorrow afternoon...if necessary.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.


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Alex K
Unregistered




Sounds like we've finally got something(s) [Re: Jamiewx]
      #16974 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:18 PM

Im not sure about 90I, but I think 99I could be interesting. It looks like it may turn out to be a subtropical storm, though a tropical storm is possible too.

90I im not sure, but if conditions are favorable, things could happen, because the gulf is at a boil.

Sadly im not going to be in Florida next week


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James88
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Re: 5:30pm TWO [Re: Jamiewx]
      #16975 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:21 PM

Sounds like tomorrow has the potential to be a busy day in the tropics. Hopefully I won't get up tomorrow to find that the systems have disappeared form the satellite.

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ErinAndOpal95
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Re: 5:30pm TWO [Re: James88]
      #16976 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:35 PM

99I is starting to take on the classic PinWheel shape.

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teal61
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Re: JB Afternoon Update [Re: LI Phil]
      #16977 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:36 PM

Something Phil didn't mention. Bastardi also seems to think that 90L will ultimately be a Texas threat. Of course he's probably wrong nearly as much as he is right this type of situation, but he has hit the nail on the head before and is still one of the first sources I visit each day for info on the tropics.

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LI Phil
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Re: JB Afternoon Update [Re: teal61]
      #16978 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:46 PM

Teal61, sorry, that is kind of important...if it gets to tropical storm strength by Saturday night, he is thinking hurricane threat on the Tejas coast Monday & Tuesday, and a strong one at that.

Erin & Opal, welcome aboard.

And it's 99"L" (as in atLantic) not I. (unless that was a small a lower case l not an uppercase I. They look the same so we try to capitalize them).

That 5:30 TWO certainly leaves the door open for development of both systems. My bet is on the GOM to definitely get a name, whether it's Bonnie or Alex is the question of the hour.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


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99L [Re: teal61]
      #16979 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:49 PM

99L is looking just a little bit ragged at the moment, but that could be temporary. Let's see how it looks tomorrow morning and see what tomorrow's recon will find. I think that as long as 99L and 90L remain in the close proximity that they are in now, the influence of 99L will disrupt development. However, once they separate further, 90L will have a good shot at becoming Alex or Bonnie (depending on what 99L does).

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bobbi
Unregistered




what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. [Re: LI Phil]
      #16980 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:50 PM

What if Bastardi was right and the Gulf has more potential?

Atlantic lollygags around like a spinning wheel and sort of kind of develops.. wouldn't the Atlantic Storm if it did get going want to go more west and follow the stronger Gulf Storm?

I know most of you think it will be the other way around.. Atlantic first.. moves off and Gulf deepens slowly but..

what if?


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javlin
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Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. [Re: bobbi]
      #16981 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:57 PM

I may be way off here guys but the WV imagine it almost looks like 99L is relocating at 24N 68W.The thing I notice on 90L is there is some circulation in the BOC maybe mid-level?I am not good enough to tell if it helps in the evacuation or hurts.How about some thoughts.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

Edited by javlin (Thu Jul 29 2004 10:01 PM)


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. [Re: bobbi]
      #16982 - Thu Jul 29 2004 09:58 PM

These invest need to develop so we can get some better model data, I dont believe any of the model solutions right now. If we can get a better defined system maybe the models will begin to agree on a track and not go spaghetti O's on us.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. [Re: bobbi]
      #16983 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:01 PM

If "if" was a spliff, we'd be high . Anyway, I don't know about 90L. I think 99L ends up being the quicker developer, but probably ends up not being all that strong. It pumps a bunch of water into the periphery of the building back in Bermuda Ridge. My guess would be from the GA/SC border up to Wilmington, NC. Outside chance of a trap and stall off the coast. Landfall guess is sometime Sunday (but I really have to research before making a real call).

For 90L, I'm just going to wait and see. As mentioned, JB likes a Texas solution and I think that's very plausible. The flow out of the Gulf will be slowly from the East, but it's not going anywhere fast. I'd bet if it's a Texas hit it wouldn't be until next Tuesday at the earliest. If it's at a point further east, subject some time. And if it's a Texas hit, where's it gonna go? That's a big coastline and one where an actual hurricane (if one were to develop) could wreck (sp?) any level of havoc depending on place of landfall.

Interesting days coming up.

Steve


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16984 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:08 PM

As of right now, my opinion is 99L doesnt look to great. Looks like there may be a LLC in the far SE portion of that mass of clouds. But the water vapor loop shows dry air is still being entrained into the Westside of the low. Thus all convection is east of the main spin. The dry air seems to be dissipating so maybe by tomorrow it will have a better enviroment to strengthen. I dont have much of an opinion on 90L yet.

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javlin
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Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16985 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:14 PM

Your right Droop we need to wait it looks like the dry air is about finished and being choked off though.These systems have a tendency to flair up at night.We will have a better handle on it tomorrrow.

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ErinAndOpal95
Verified CFHC User


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Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16986 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:15 PM

The storm convection around 90L is really starting to heat up.

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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. [Re: ErinAndOpal95]
      #16987 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:33 PM

Interesting...but we all know how the model runs change!

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/AL9904MDL01.html

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Steve, please explain... [Re: Anonymous]
      #16988 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:37 PM

>>> If "if" was a spliff, we'd be high .

I'm not sure I follow you...what is a spliff?

While I'm far from an expert, I do have to agree with that which has been said earlier, in that 99L needs to slow down, wind up, get it's bad self together. Then...take aim at the Carolinas. The faster it spins up, the more shear it's going to encounter. And the closer it stays to 90L, the less it's got going for it.

Now, 90L, that's one has Hurricane written all over it. I don't know whether it has CAT III like JB feels "could" happen. But, I think a CAT I is not at all out of the question.

BUT...before I even hypothize on anything happening, I want to first see a TD. Then, (doing best Mike Myers in SNL, imitating his mother in law-you know 'coffee-tawk' with Linda Richmund [I think that was the characters' name]), we'll tawk. Argh, I'm ver-klempft.

Show me the (TD) money, then the TS Alex.

99L. 90L. Can I get a witness?


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