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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
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later obs [Re: ErinAndOpal95]
      #16989 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:39 PM

99L's surface trough is east of the main convective blow up. the vortmax in the northern part is moving away west.. with some convection. i don't think it's the primary. a weaker one to the south is drifting almost underneath the upper trough , with the trades barely pushing it (as the main convective blow up is immediately ese of it). as the convective max propagates westward, i'm expecting a closed center to form early tomorrow in the vicinity of 24/72.
away west 90L is being driven slowly southwestward by the upper level winds ahead of the slowly retrograding upper trough. i'm thinking now that the weak surface low will begin deepening closer to cozumel than key west, and stay further to the south. it should also pump the mid level ridge to the north and keep the first shortwave for this weekend out of the picture.. though later one may be in place to get it in the western gulf. earlier i was thinking the shortwave would wind up getting both systems, but this one seems more affected by weather to its east than weather to its northwest.
so yeah, first impulse with 90L probably wrong. but i'm sticking with the thoughts on 99L.
HF 2239z29july


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LI Phil
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Re: Steve, please explain... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #16990 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:39 PM

Arrgh...that was me. I NEVER forget to login.

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Anonymous
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later obs [Re: HanKFranK]
      #16993 - Thu Jul 29 2004 10:58 PM

99L looks like it is taking a jog to the north. Is the environment conducive for such a course? I thought it would run NW at the very least with that trough coming south.

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Kevin
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Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #16994 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:01 PM

I really like the look of the GOMex system this evening. You can really see where there is a circulation...just west of the Dry Tortugas. NHC seems to be on the money with this one. If the convection persists overnight, I'd say we'll see TD 1/TD 2 tomorrow. The weather pattern in the Gulf seems to have less commotion than the pattern that is surrounding 99L. Oh-this one has potential too. The shear in the Gulf will probably remain light for the next couple of days, at least. Combine this with a slow motion, and I think you have the recipe for at least a moderate tropical storm. It has to pass the persistence test first though...

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Anonymous
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Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #16995 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:17 PM

Look closely at the latest floater 1 loop. On the far western edge about 25.2 N 73 W is that the center of the low spinning due west??? Just wondering, let me see everyones comments.

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LI Phil
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99L's future... [Re: Kevin]
      #16996 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:18 PM

This is the first time all season my local NWS has looked towards the south for possible weather (including 98L earlier this week). Here's my local discussion:
BASICALLY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...WHICH WOULD BE STEERED NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...WE COULD BE IMPACTED LOCALLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY BY RIP CURRENTS AND BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN...AS ITS' MOISTURE WOULD INTERACT AND STREAM NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. STAY TUNED.

Sounds like they're getting serious. Usually, the "potential track" for a possible storm and my local forecast don't even come close to jiving. Things are definitely starting to brew...

"STAY TUNED"

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rich B
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Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching [Re: Kevin]
      #16997 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:21 PM

Hey guys,
well go out for a few hours and come back to find 2 invests up on two developing systems! both look good to me, with something hinting that 90L could be quite a trouble maker, just a gut instinct. Wouldnt be surprised to see both system classified possibly as early as Friday, but i am guessing it wont happen until the Recon flights have been out. There appears to be some evidence of an LLC associated with 99L, but it is located on the southwestern edge of the deep convection. I think somebody has already mentioned that dry air has been entraining into the western half of the circulation, but it looks like this may get cut off shortly, and allow convection to build in the western semicircle too. 90L has an improving appearance too.

Will be interesting to see how both system lok in the morning, but hopefully tomorrow we will have something to watch, and who knows, perhaps we will enter August with Alex AND Bonnie too

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching [Re: Anonymous]
      #16998 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:24 PM

I can't make out if that is the real circulation that is pushing due west.

But anything is possible.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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ticka1
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Re: JB Afternoon Update [Re: teal61]
      #16999 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:32 PM

Quote:

Something Phil didn't mention. Bastardi also seems to think that 90L will ultimately be a Texas threat. Of course he's probably wrong nearly as much as he is right this type of situation, but he has hit the nail on the head before and is still one of the first sources I visit each day for info on the tropics.




Teal and Phil - what part of Texas is JB refering too? Just curious.....thanks.

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LoisCane
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good posts.. [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #17000 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:36 PM

good thoughts..good posts..

if the systems had clearly defineable centers that were as good as these thoughts we would be in business

not believing anything til i see it up close and personal

read you all later, thanks
bobbi

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LI Phil
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Re: JB Afternoon Update [Re: ticka1]
      #17001 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:36 PM

>>> Teal and Phil - what part of Texas is JB refering too? Just curious.....thanks

The Texas coast, of course

Seriously, this far out, he didn't specify. At this point it might not even develop, much less threaten Texas. However, since he did throw it out there, if he gives any hints, I'll be sure to post.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Jul 29 2004 11:43 PM)


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Old Sailor
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Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. [Re: Anonymous]
      #17002 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:40 PM

I feel that 90L if the thunder storms holds together tonight will end up in Steve's neck of the woods maybe just west of New Orlean's,j ust following the cloud trail here not models right now, Models don't help till you have TD.

Dave


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Anonymous
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Re: what if.. just a what if Fantasy Tracking here.. [Re: Old Sailor]
      #17003 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:54 PM

Dave,

I think the thing that will keep it west is the lifting upper system which should supress our atmosphere with an upper high. That's just preliminary because I haven't even begun studying the upper charts. But I'd love a free day fo drinking off next week, so whatever powers you get for turning 75, focus some of 'em my way.

What's interesting with 90L is the deep convection of the diurnal kind that seems to be blowing up. I think the high cloudtops HF was talking about are peripheral only.

Steve


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teal61
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Interesting Link [Re: Anonymous]
      #17004 - Thu Jul 29 2004 11:58 PM

Check this out...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/ldis_index.html

Click Real-time Mesoscale Analyses, this is very informative with 90L. Also shows pressure down to 1008mb.


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LI Phil
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Awfully quiet this e'en... [Re: teal61]
      #17005 - Fri Jul 30 2004 12:27 AM

Does it bother anyone else that Satellite Services Division (SSD) hasn't even issued a Dvorak rating on either invest? Even if it is "too weak," they still offer that explanation. Seems to me they should have some interest in potential development. Just my $.02

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cycloneye
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SSD dvorak [Re: LI Phil]
      #17006 - Fri Jul 30 2004 01:01 AM

29/2345 UTC 25.7N 71.9W TOO WEAK 99 -- Atlantic Ocean

Here it is Phil.But 90L still is not there.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Anonymous
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Re: SSD dvorak [Re: Cycloneye]
      #17007 - Fri Jul 30 2004 01:20 AM

The system east of the Bahamas is reforming further south and east of the previous 'focus' of convection.

Looks like the Gulf system is beginning to show some banding..

I made a prediction yesterday that we would have a system east of Fl within 72 hours (td or ts) and within 120 hours west of Fl...standing on that.

Hey...take a look at this on the CHC site (not related to current activity but very neat).

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/climatology/images/frequencymap1.png

sc


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Anonymous
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two SyS [Re: Anonymous]
      #17008 - Fri Jul 30 2004 01:28 AM

just passing by and thought this looked interesting:
gfdl run from late afternoon.... still think mid gulf coast in prime target.... looks like the storms are trying to form tonight.... 99L looks to be the first of the season..... i say 99L would be a TS by afternoon tmrow...... 90L needs a little help..... GA,nFL and SC.... need any rain?


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdl...;hour=Animation


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Rob_M
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Atlantic Discussion [Re: Anonymous]
      #17009 - Fri Jul 30 2004 01:39 AM

FWIW, Kevin and I just finished the discussion below. Looks like a busy weekend ahead for us.

Note: Our forecast products are unofficial. Please read our disclaimer.

IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 29 July 2004 - 9:20 PM EDT

The Atlantic Basin has become a bit more active today. There remains two prominent areas of interest, one being a surface trough just northeast of the Bahamas, and the other a broad surface low pressure just east of the Florida Straits.

The surface trough northeast of the Bahamas has been gradually organizing over the past 12 to 24 hours. Visible satellite imagery hints at a possible weak low level circulation developing near 26ºN, 72ºW, though a few more hours of microwave shortwave satellite imagery will be needed to confirm this. Regardless, given these recent satellite imagery trends, we are confident that a definate low level circulation will develop around the coordinates given above within the next 12 hours. Weak to moderate low level convergence is noted around the possible low, particularly from the south. Convection as a whole associated with the system is on a diurnal wane, though an upper level low to the south is helping to enhance convection southeast of the potential center by creating strong lift. At the same time, it is currently restricting convective development in the southwest quadrant. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is noted over the northern half of the system, enabling a decent anticyclonic outflow pattern to establish in the northern and eastern quadrants. This overall situation is more baroclinic than barotropic, though changes appear to be in store. Model guidance indicates that the upper level low will continue to slowly slide southwestward. In response, this will allow for the upper level ridge to expand further south so that it encompasses nearly the entire system. This will permit ventilation aloft in all quadrants, a necessity for a true tropical cyclone. The progged southwestward or southward position of the upper level low will aid convection in the center of the disturbance as well. With a large upper level ridge progged to be located directly over the surface center, wind shear should not be a problem. Global models are not too agressive on intensity despite this, however. Most only show development into a tropical depression or tropical storm at the most. Some, such as the GFS, do not show anything more than an inverted trough. The dynamical SHIPS model is more bullish than the global model suite, and strengthens it to a moderate tropical storm in the next 48 hours. Considering the recent organization trend and the already building favorable upper tropospheric pattern, there is good potential for tropical depression or tropical storm development within the next 24 hours. However, taking model guidance into account and the lack of a lot of time spent over water, nothing more is anticipated.

The future track of the system depends solely on the position of the subtropical ridge and the timing arrival of a trough currently located over the central United States plains. Motion over the past 12 to 24 hours has been very slowly towards the west-northwest, which is expected to continue in the near future along the prehiphery of the subtropical ridge. Thereafter, some uncertainty arises. Once the trough approaches the United States east coast, the westward flank of the subtropical ridge will be pushed further east, thus curving the system north or northeastward. When this will happen, and whether it will happen before landfall, is the main question. The majority of the global models take the trough far enough east to influence the system in 60 to 72 hours. Given the current slow motion, this supports a right curve while still over water, thus taking it into eastern North Carolina rather than Georgia or South Carolina. The most recent run of the tropical models suggests otherwise, though little trust should be put into these models as most of them are primarily designed to handle purely tropcial situations south of 20ºN. Based on all of this, landfall in northern South Carolina or North Carolina is expected from the south-southwest late Sunday or early Monday. There remains some uncertainty in the exact time and location of landfall, as well as the intensity of the system. Thus, residents living along the coast from northern Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance plane will investigate the area tomorrow if needed.

The second area of interest lies in the Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is located just to the west of Dry Tortugas in the Florida Straits. Convection is increasing around its fringes this evening, mostly due to diurnal enhancement. Nonetheless, the organization as a whole is better now than it was 12 to 24 hours ago, with moderate low level convergence and anticyclonic flow aloft. The synoptic environment is gradually becoming more conducive for development. Model guidance still depicts a large upper level ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico in the near future. This will allow for greatly reduced shear values and strong evacuation aloft. Additionally, water temperatures and hurricane heat potential are more than sufficient to support a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. If convection persists overnight and the circulation becomes better defined, this system will become a candidate for classification tomorrow. As mentioned above, conditions will allow for at least gradual strengthening over the next few days. It is also important to note that this system could be a slow mover even in the longer term, allowing more time over water. All factors subsisting, the prospect of strengthening looks good with this system. The Dynamical SHIPS model brings the low to a minimal hurricane in 120 hours. Global models are much less aggressive, but nearly all of them still show development. Based on the progged upper level pattern, recent organization trends, and model guidance, intensification to a tropical depression or tropical storm is a decent possibility over the next 36 hours. It is uncertain as to how strong this will become, but any low that stays over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters for several days under a large ridge aloft is always subject to concern.

The system is moving slowly towards the southwest at this time due to a temporary fluctuation in the low-level steering currents in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Earlier today, east-southeasterly steering currents were observed. The recent fluctuation in steering can be attributed to the flattening of ridging to the north and east of the system. As the trough along the United States east coast moves further west, the western flank of the ridge in the subtropical Atlantic should weaken, allowing steering currents in the Gulf to switch to an easterly or east-southeasterly direction. Model guidance is extremely diverged on the future track. The BAMM and BAMD tropical models take it westward towards the Mexican or Texan coastline, as does the UKMET. On the other hand, a lot of the other global models, such as the ETA, GFS, and CMC curve it northward towards the northern Gulf coast. It is too soon to say with certainty which track the system will take. However, given the expected passage of a trough across the eastern half of the United States in the forecast period, a more southerly turn in the steering flow in the Gulf of Mexico would seem reasonable. Provided the system is more than just a tropical wave or a low with minimum central pressure lower than 1010 millibars, a turn more towards the north is the more likely scenario at this time. Furthermore, the tropical models are not very reliable in this type of situation. As with the western Atlantic disturbance, the environment is not completely barotropic, which is the pattern the tropical models perform best. The most likely target for landfall is from central Louisiana to extreme western Florida Panhandle. A more westward motion cannot be discounted yet, so interests in both the northern and western Gulf coasts should pay attention to this system over the upcoming weekend. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance plane will investigate this area tomorrow as well, if necessary.

On another note, the GFS continues to show tropical cyclone development from a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic within the next 72 hours. However, no other model is in agreement with this solution, and the air ahead still looks a bit seasonably dry. We will continue to monitor this region of the Atlantic basin, but significant development is not expected at this time.

http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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WXMAN RICHIE
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N.C. Discussion [Re: Rob_M]
      #17010 - Fri Jul 30 2004 01:53 AM

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...HAS APPEARED BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER INDICATED THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WE WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING IT TO THE CAROLINA COAST. WHERE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN LEAST CONSISTENT IS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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