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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LoisCane
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wave off Africa [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #17011 - Fri Jul 30 2004 02:17 AM

great wave, beautiful wave nicest one ive seen in ages

something to think on, more inspiring than the other two systems

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Old Sailor
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Re: Two Areas Both Near the US that May Need Watching [Re: Old Sailor]
      #17013 - Fri Jul 30 2004 03:41 AM

90L not looking to good tonight, it maybe the land mass of Cuba, like I said this afternoon looked good but needs to keep the thunder storms over night to keep it growning, see what happens tomorrow.
Dave


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Kevin
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What the... [Re: LoisCane]
      #17014 - Fri Jul 30 2004 03:44 AM

Look at this satellite image:
GOES Floater IR

Is that a circulation breaking loose towards the west? Or are my eyes playing trick on me?


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HanKFranK
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midnight take [Re: Old Sailor]
      #17015 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:03 AM

gotta wake up early tomorrow, but hard to resist a late check.
99L: was thinking that the vortmax scraping along under the upper trough was going to be superceded by a secondary further east.. not so. there is some convection just north of the pick of the litter, and as the diurnal/enhanced convection southeast of this embryonic center goes away i expect the trades will get enough surface convergence in the area for it to jump off tomorrow morning. somewhat west of where i was thinking.. thinking i'll keep my forecast track south of what most are saying, more of a ga/fl thing than a sc/nc one. also, as usual, take issue with the folks calling it more baroclinic than barotropic. it's a wave interacting with a trough split.. not a cut off hybrid low. probably a third of all tropical cyclones form this way, aided by convection-enhancing pockets within the nearby upper pattern.
90L: broad and taking it slowly. i'm guessing it will originate close to the western tip of cuba, and meander for a couple days while the upper pattern modifies nearby. a mid-upper vortmax just jetted over it this evening and has helped keep it disorganized.. eventually it will buck that trend.
as for the ultimate track of either system.. 99L is the easier to determine since the atlantic ridge (and a shortwave of dubious strength) will define its path once it gets organized. 90L is less influenced by either and probably going to do some meandering as the steering influences in the gulf are unclear at this point. really, dependent on when and how much either system strengthens, there is a whole realm of possibilites for future track. when the systems are organized enough to be classified, we'll start getting a real feel for specifics.. at this point suffice to say 99L will likely moving towards the upper east florida to south carolina coast, and 90L will probably jig-bob around while the flow around it modifies.. eventually go west to northwest, and hit somewhere along the gulf coast to be determined by how amplified the shortwaves traveling by to the north become.
that was really a lot of rhetoric, like you may have just heard on a political convention. we've got weak systems and they're really hard to nail down.
waves in the east atlantic coming across. they're wait/see for now.
HF 0403z30july


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DroopGB31
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Re: midnight take [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17016 - Fri Jul 30 2004 05:39 AM

Well, It seems to get real quiet in here during the evenings, even with 2 invest up. I was just looking at the satellite shot of 90L and it looks to have a definite cyclonic turning thing goin on, and even some banding features. I say give it 18 more hours and a bit of convection and we have our first TD. I would say 12 hours but recon wont be going in till the afternoon I think? As for the track, I'd expect right now, the SW drift to halt after the ridge comes into place over the gulf. From there basically a slow wobbling until something comes along to kick it out, From there Im gonna say N.O to Pensacola. No scientific research behind my "landfall guess", just the fact almost anything in the gulf hits around that area and the fact I go back to school Monday. Maybe something to possibly extend my summer? One can only hope! J/K no wishcasting in my front.

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James88
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Re: midnight take [Re: DroopGB31]
      #17017 - Fri Jul 30 2004 06:48 AM

An impressive flare up is taking place with 99L this morning, and it definately looks like it is getting better organised. 90L meanwhile continues to be fairly broad with little associated deep convection, but that doesn't mean to say we should write it off yet. I still think it can develop. Let's see what the recon missions find today.

Here's the 5:30 TWO -

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND IT APPEARS TO
SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT ...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LATER TODAY.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

Looks like a couple of typing errors.

99L now has a T number of 1.0 - so it should be packing winds of about 25 kts.

Edited by James88 (Fri Jul 30 2004 10:57 AM)


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Steve Hirschb.
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Re: midnight take [Re: James88]
      #17018 - Fri Jul 30 2004 11:35 AM

Seems like 99L is getting better organized this morning, with what seems to be a LLC developing east of the central Bahamas. The wave is moving slowly westward at the moment. If a depression forms, folks from south Florida to the Carolinas need to watch this closely. The circulation from what was the ULL is pulling deep tropical moisture up from the south, and its beginning to show that "S" pattern. WHere this may go IF it forms is still a big question,

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h2ocean
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Re: midnight take [Re: Steve Hirschb.]
      #17019 - Fri Jul 30 2004 12:12 PM

99L is looking pretty good this morning on the first Visible shots, 90L - not so sure this morning. It looks like it is being impacted by some shear from the NE which is pushing convection to the SW, but there is rotation. Also, wouldn't be surprised to see a new invest on the wave off of Africa - it look very good this morning and GFS is no longer the only model developing a storm out of this wave.

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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LI Phil
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Quick early morning JB thoughts [Re: h2ocean]
      #17020 - Fri Jul 30 2004 12:24 PM

Have to be brief. This morning JB is still sticking with yesterday afternoon's thoughts, with some embellishment. Feels 99L will get to TS status and landfall somewhere near the SC/NC border Sunday. He is also bullish on 90L with one caveat. He likens the two disturbances to two bullies on a playground and you can only have one bully on a playground. Therefore, he feels 99L will continue to develop at the expense of 90L for the time being. Once 99L landfalls and loses energy, 90L will start to crank. The caveat is that until such time, 90L is in the dogfight of its life to survive. For this, he uses the analogy of pushing a boulder up a hill. Very difficult to do, but if it does happen, then it will rapidly descend the hill once the apex is reached. In other words, if 90L can make it up the hill, watch out once it gets to the top. He still worries about Texas as the final destination. Several models back up both scenarios but I won't get into that now.

Well, that wasn't very brief, was it? Talk to y'all later.

Morning,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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rmbjoe1954
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Steering Winds -99L [Re: h2ocean]
      #17022 - Fri Jul 30 2004 12:33 PM

Are there any models that can tell where 99L is headed based on the steering winds and trough location?

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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LI Phil
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Re: Steering Winds -99L [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #17023 - Fri Jul 30 2004 12:39 PM

Joe,

I'm not sure what criteria the models use to determine their possible future direction, but I'm sure the two you mention are certainly factored in. Here's some model graphics:

99L-1

and the

recon
99L-High Seas Forecast

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Re: Steering Winds -99L [Re: LI Phil]
      #17024 - Fri Jul 30 2004 12:48 PM

The T number is up to 1.5 - our friend is getting organised. Does anyone think that recon will find a TD when they go in today, or is it too soon to guess?

Edited by James88 (Fri Jul 30 2004 12:48 PM)


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LoisCane
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friday thoughts.. [Re: LI Phil]
      #17025 - Fri Jul 30 2004 12:54 PM

brief.. so hang on..
think joe is wrong and hes in good company
think that its not following his or anyone's time plan and the longer that it sits out there.. the more you have to wonder on a more westerly, wnw scenario as eventually the high will build in and shove it west ..not up the coast.

if it had formed on time yesterday..we'd be talking carolinas
it didnt
it might not today
wouldn't count it out
if it has a chance its for a later time plan and that route is further south with every passing day

gulf.. hey wheres the convection?
always wanted to see havana myself..

its there somewhere i think, playing possum

but two bullies are hanging out in their own little pack talking tough but not really DOING anything

wave out by africa is kick ass.. can i say that here or will that get edited, bummer.. if so.. then edit it that bobbi likes the african wave

early but .. has more twist and shout than either of the invests

and... think its a another day of watching and waiting, not sure NHC isnt wishcasting here but... well.. both could affect populated areas so they have to be cautous cautious? oh heck

and.. you are right hank.. this wasnt a brief post.

you want brief?

NOT TODAY.

good melbourne discussion..MON-THU...LATEST GFS SHOWS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF SYSTEM IS SHOWN MOVING VERY SLOWLY EARLY THEN SHIFTING NORTHEAST TO OFF THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT ALL...LET ALONE WHERE IT WILL BE AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT IN THE FUTURE. WITH A LARGE SCALE SOUTH FLOW PROGGED...HAVE TO FIGURE ON PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA REGARDLESS OF WHAT GOES ON IN A TROPICAL SENSE. THEREFORE WILL PLAN ON SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 31 2004 01:01 AM)


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: friday thoughts.. [Re: LoisCane]
      #17026 - Fri Jul 30 2004 01:19 PM

Excellent discussion. 99L still stationary, isn't it? Does anyone recognize a LLC feature and where may it be?

This system is too messy-awkward, almost like a teen going thru hormonal changes.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Can I ... [Re: MikeC]
      #17027 - Fri Jul 30 2004 01:38 PM

Can I post a cool picture of Hur. Isabelle on here?
And if so, how?


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Can I ... [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #17028 - Fri Jul 30 2004 01:43 PM

Quote:

Can I post a cool picture of Hur. Isabelle on here?
And if so, how?




You can, but we you have to be registered user to upload (To keep people from abusing it). You make a post and can attach a file when you preview it.


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bobbi
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agree with joe.. can't find one .. [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #17030 - Fri Jul 30 2004 01:47 PM

area of deepest convection is furthest from the "center" and would ask why we wouldn't expect this to die out eventually and as the storms to the se move further into the warm (but dusty) tropics.. develop there?

long shot there....but think the whole thing is a long shot

posted this article in "other weather" or some forum like that on this board.. see? following rules.. wondering tho why we don't have a forum for global warming and one for El Nino to keep this true to tropical weather?

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/environment/story.jsp?story=546138


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Steve
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Re: agree with joe.. can't find one .. [Re: bobbi]
      #17031 - Fri Jul 30 2004 02:12 PM

Should be an interesting weekend. Too bad too because if I've gotten more than 5 hours sleep any night in the last 2 weeks, it might have been once. And now it's time to wake up out of a deep sleep at 3:30 am to run to the CPU spin some loops so as not to miss anything. (I'm sure I don't have to tell any of you).

99L maintains that hybrid look. I'm guessing it's essentially still an upper feature (Cocin) with a broad, elongated surface low. I still like my GA-SC border to Wilmington (just south of the Outer Banks) idea. I don't know if it's even going to go inland, stall, or turn up north through Coastal North Carolina. But I think the track is fair. Some of the models are doing more with it farther down the road. That remains to be seen.

90L is a slow mover. It can't pick up much convection because it's all a couple hundred miles east and northeast. Looked at a scat last night before bed and the circulation was very evident. Dave Schartz was all over that later on one of the late night tropical updates on TWC as well.

Today's another watch day. Will 99L get organized before moving toward the coast? One would think the opportunity is there. 90L shouldn't do much today. Maybe tomorrow or Sunday, when there is a little distance between the two, something can get rolling.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Beach
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A Cool Picture... [Re: MikeC]
      #17032 - Fri Jul 30 2004 02:29 PM Attachment (209 downloads)

I'm sure many of you have this one, but for those of you that don't, it's a must!
Tiltle: "When Mother Nature goes Wild"


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James88
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Re: A Cool Picture... [Re: Beach]
      #17033 - Fri Jul 30 2004 02:43 PM

Cool image. If you don't mind me saying so it isn't Hurricane Isabel. It curculated on the interent as Hurricane Isabel but appears to have been intentionally mislabelled. According to Urbanlegends.com it is actually a supercell thunderstorm rotating around the decaying part of Cyclone Graham, which was off the northwest coast of Australia in February 2003. It wasn't until some time afterwards that the photo was identified correctly. Still, thanks for the awesome picture!

Does anyone know when the recon mission is due to be in 99L? Perhaps there will be a STDS today. Who knows?


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