Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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It's is Really... What a bummer!
It is and awesome weather picture reguardless.
Thanks for setting me straight. 
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bobbi
Unregistered
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what is going on there?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
where is the 11?
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Coupla-three things...been into that urban legends stuff since 9/11 when a boatload of rumors were spreading. James88 is right that it actually took some time before the picture was actually id'ed. It is a cool pic.
Gotta agree with Steve-o on the 99L call. I'm sticking with my earlier call for a TS and landfalling somewhere between the two Carolinas. It's slow to organize, but that will help it to gain strength. And, while I don't get up in the middle of the night to check out loops, first thing in the am is and on the 'puter.
When I posted earlier this am, JB hadn't put his tropical vid online, so I gotta go check that out. I also haven't checked on recon, but last I heard, they were scheduled to fly out to 99L around 10 am, so if that's still the case, we should have some data soon.
OK, gotta go do some tropical trawling. Check back wit-cho guys later.
LI Phil
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 31 2004 01:04 AM)
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS FORMING IN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED
ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS FORMED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH...AND INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
This sounds promising! It appears we may have our first system later today!  BTW, since it says that the recon will determine if a tropical or subtropical depression has formed, does this mean that it is very likely that the system will be classified?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The low pressure east/northeast of Freeport in Bahamas looks like its heading due west !http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS FORMING IN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED
ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS FORMED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH...AND INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
What I thought.
sc 
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Having stared at the loop for about 15 minutes, and then reading the 11 , a LLC has formed at about 27N 75W or in that general area. I look for this to become the first TD by tonight. It seems to me to have a WNW/NW move to it, and I still might see a cloud or two, maybe more, here in JAX before it moves almost due north. It won't make it to hurricane strength at any point IMO. I do think it will a weather event worth noting for somebody, rainmaker if it starts to take off this afternoon. And I do think it will start to take off soon.
90L is broad, to say the least. It's going to have to tighten up it's act a bunch to start moving toward TD statis. Day or two more for this one. The CV wave doesn't do much for me yet, but I'm not looking very hard at the moment, with a baby at my backdoor........
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yes, but convection has died off somewhat in the areas they identified, and a rival circulation to the SE is apparent...might not quite be there yet.
BTW: 85 degree water at PCB this am and EIGHTY SEVEN DEGREES at St. Marks....gulf system def drifting wnw, twt.
sc
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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With at 1.5/1.5 on 99L (25 knots) and recon headed in, I'll say we have a TD by this afternoon. They cancelled the recon on 90L (no surprise there).
That wave off the coast of Africa is looking mighty impressive ATTM as well, although that's going to get short shrift until we see what happens with the two invests.
Anyone know when the recon data will filter back in?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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may have to wait until 5pm.
I'd rather do that and it be classified then get the data early and not have anything.
two questions:
what is meant by "analog" year? I've seen it in the earlier topics alot
second, what is the site where you are all getting the numbers from?
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Anolog years are years that in the historical record have global oceanic and atmospheric trends which are substantially similar to the season ahead. These years also provide useful clues as to likely trends in activity that the forthcoming hurricane season may bring.
Here is a link to the T numbers:-
T numbers
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Bugsy,
analog (n) similar or comparable in certain respects. An analog year is one where certain or several aspects of the season fit the current one. (ie, was there a strong el nino, when did the first storm form, what were the SSTs, etc.). There are no true analogs, as each season will behave differently than others before it, but they may produce similar results.
Here's the link for the readings:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
Did that answer your questions?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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bobbi
Unregistered
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if they find it closed off.. west wind
they do use that parameter of bahama systems right?
i mean even a subtropical needs a west wind?
yes or no?
maybe they can see something in their flying machines i don't see on the visible
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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question answered
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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My family is headed to palm beach fl from 8-1 til 8-7, does this storm look like it's heading in that direction.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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it appears to be moving northwest, so it will likely never reach southern Florida
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Thanks guys for the link to the T-numbers. One I didn't have bookmarked yet.
The local NWS here in JAX is very calm, as they should be, Our chance for rain goes up after soon to be TD1 passes east and north of us, light N winds for the next day or so. Water is very warm right now. Might expect a little bit of a last second flare-up as "Alex" passes over the gulf stream just before landfall somewhere in the Carolina's, IMO.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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From what I can deduce. it would seem you'd be OK in WPB. If a Florida hit were to occur it would be in the northern part of the state..close to Georgia. Worst case, rain and heavy surf.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Namtheun nearing landfall in Japan with 75mph winds; in EP, Darby down to 65 and TD6E dissipated
also looks like 90L is not developing because its energy is being pulled into 99L
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