F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | >> (show all)
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Couple of Bouy Links [Re: Rob_M]
      #17094 - Fri Jul 30 2004 09:00 PM

Station 41010 - CANAVERAL EAST 120NM East of Cape Canaveral:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.3 °F

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41010

Station 41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL,:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41009

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 72.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.0 °F

Certainly is warm enough


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
5:30 TWO [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #17095 - Fri Jul 30 2004 09:16 PM

Well, the 5:30 TWO says a mouthful. Now, the question is: will we have TD 1 at 11:30? Probably not, but more likely tomorrow. They're sending in a plane to 90L tomorrow. As these two systems begin to separate from each other, I like the chances of each developing more and more.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
James88
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 5:30 TWO [Re: LI Phil]
      #17096 - Fri Jul 30 2004 09:22 PM

Yeah, I agree with you Phil. 90L looks quite a bit better than it did earlier today, so although 99L is developing faster, its counterpart may well be the more significant system. Notice that in the latest TWO they have raised the possibilty of a tropical storm forming tonight, rather than just a tropical depression.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: 5:30 TWO [Re: James88]
      #17097 - Fri Jul 30 2004 09:38 PM

I think the reasoning here is that if and when something connects it could happen fast and as the water is that hot..it can intensify fast. It's close to the shore and therefore.. they need to be more cautious and watch it carefully.

Better safe than sorry.

Have a great weekend, ill check in Saturday nite. Maybe will have something exciting then..will see.

Take care of yourselves, don't get blurry eyes from all those loops.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: 5:30 TWO [Re: LoisCane]
      #17098 - Fri Jul 30 2004 09:47 PM

A brief check around some of the southern Gulf buoys yields the following:

Station 42003 - 260nm South of Panama City Beach: Winds are due east @ 15.5knts gusting to 23.3. Wave Heights are 2.3'. Water Temperature is 88.5 degrees. Pressure is 29.79 (which represents a 4 basis point drop from yesterday's 29.83 @ 4pm).

Gulf Buoy 42001 which is the Mid Gulf Buoy about 180nm South of SW Pass, LA shows a similar .04 drop in pressure from yesterday. The winds here are due north @ 11.7knts gusting to 15.5knts. Water temps are 86.4.

Gulf Buoy 42041 which is 110nm S of Grand Isle shows a .03 pressure drop and also winds out of the NNE @ 3.9kts.

BURL1 which is located in SW Pass, LA has a .03 drop from yesterday and has ENE (True) winds at 8knts.
----------------------------------------------
Most of the buoys off of the FL coast show rising pressure compared to yesterday and show E, SE or ESE winds. The buoys to the north and west of the circulation are N and NE. Buoys farther toward Texas show no evidence (obviously) at this time of any deepenings in the Gulf.

Developing situation? I report, you decide.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 5:30 TWO [Re: LoisCane]
      #17099 - Fri Jul 30 2004 09:48 PM

Hey guys,
i noticed the apparent westward motion of the system to in recent satellite imagery. Could this be a possible attempt and the centre trying to relocate or consolidate? Think we should see this become a TD / STD in the next 12 hours, but wouldnt be surprised if NHC held off til tomorrows first light visibles to check for sure.

90L certainly appears to be holding steady and still poses a threat of development, possibly not as immediate as 99L, but certainly soon.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
50 Online [Re: Rich B]
      #17100 - Fri Jul 30 2004 09:56 PM

Not that it matters, but the board had a record 50 users online at one time today at 4:32 pm. And there have been more than 100 new registered users (though only a few have actually posted) in the recent months. 50 users online is not a lot, but it IS a lot when you consider we haven't even gotten a named storm yet. Imagine how hopping this place will be once we get a CAT III CV hurricane barreling across the Atlantic with eyes on the east coast!

Sticking with my earlier call that we don't get a TD tonight.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 31 2004 01:14 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
teal61
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Looks like 90L might have the top of the hill in sight... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17101 - Fri Jul 30 2004 11:15 PM

and is about ready to spool up. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight. Looking at the NASA site zoomed in, it looks like the LLC has shifted slightly south nearer the developing convection. Pressures are also lower across the mid GOM as compared to yesterday.

Also, does it look like 99L is moving more west than north to anyone else?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FLPanhandle
Unregistered




Re: Looks like 90L might have the top of the hill in sight... [Re: teal61]
      #17102 - Fri Jul 30 2004 11:22 PM

I noticed the same movement of 99L. TWC says the Bermuda high is what will cause it to steer northwest.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: 5:30 TWO [Re: Rich B]
      #17103 - Fri Jul 30 2004 11:25 PM

I just don't see the NW movement...more like just slightly north of due west. Maybe it will shift more north tonight...but if it doesn't, it looks like it would move onshore between the Cape and Jacksonville.

Melbourne Radar
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml

Visible Sat.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
slip sliding west [Re: FLPanhandle]
      #17104 - Fri Jul 30 2004 11:26 PM

i dont know WHY suddenly at that lat the bermuda high makes systems go NW..

sorry but at that lat they go west or wnw.. they dont go NW til 30ish and its not at 30..

we have a strong onshore flow out of the east.. not se.. so like..

explain this to me another time

take care, chow

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: slip sliding west [Re: LoisCane]
      #17105 - Fri Jul 30 2004 11:42 PM

Depends on the position of the bermuda high if it is more east then the flow will be to the NW like now around the perifery of it and if the high is closer to the US then like Andrew did westward to westnorthwest will be the track.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: slip sliding west [Re: Cycloneye]
      #17106 - Fri Jul 30 2004 11:50 PM

Dvorak numbers are 1.5 on 99L, but looks like the circulation is falling apart in the last couple of hours

90L looks like it is getting better organized, and appears to be developing like Gabrielle in 2001 (looks like pre-Gabrielle low did about 48 hours before becoming a TD)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: 5:30 TWO [Re: LI Phil]
      #17107 - Fri Jul 30 2004 11:51 PM

Phil:
I don't think even the NHC is sure where 90L is right now, even their Key West people are not sure if it's due west or southwest of Key West. To many thunderstorms clouds in the area, may be able to local it ,if the storms die down again tonight.

Dave


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
You're welcome... [Re: Rabbit]
      #17108 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:05 AM

>>> second, what is the site where you are all getting the Dvorak numbers from?

Earlier today you didn't even have the site for the Dvorak #'s and didn't know what an "analog" year meant. That's cool, you asked and both James88 & I obliged. Well, you're welcome. Generally when you ask for information and other posters provide it, it's customary to provide an acknowledgement. Now you're an expert on Dvorak?

Smugs, you're welcome to post here anytime, so long as you don't engage in personal attacks, just lighten up on the attitude. You may know the weather pretty well (and you do), but there are others here with 50+ years of experience as actual mets and I've been PMed by them (and others) regarding your tone.

And put some pants on

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: You're welcome... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17109 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:13 AM

i posted the Dvorak numbers with the expectation someone would comment on it and say whether they are up or down, and explain if i am right that the system is becomming disorganized

it is difficult to post very much at the moment--i am on a very old computer with the very flawed windows ME

i was at the college library earlier
if i post too many messages as long as this one, the computer will freeze up


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
tropical discussion [Re: Rabbit]
      #17111 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:29 AM

i notice that 90L was taken off of the "special features" section

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Dvorak T numbers [Re: LI Phil]
      #17112 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:31 AM

30/2345 UTC 28.0N 76.1W T1.5/1.5 99 -- Atlantic Ocean

Phil those are the latest T numbers for tonight with respect of 99L so no changes there.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
conflicting satellite appearances? [Re: Cycloneye]
      #17113 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:45 AM

so I see it has moved northwest. or at least WNW

the visible image appears to be getting less organized, but the IR appears to show a low level center under a building ridge

are either of these correct or am i just getting tired and beginning to see things that aren't there?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: slip sliding west [Re: Cycloneye]
      #17114 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:54 AM

Really a complex system, just seems to me that the LLC of 99L is westbound towards the Fla Cape, or possibly slightly north of west. Another spin probably a ULL or Mid level circulation seems to be spinning around just east of the bahamas and doesn't appear to be going anywhere fast. 90L may actually develop sooner as some good convection is firing up, and may create a problem for the upper Mexico or Texas coast in a few days.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 648 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: ****
Topic views: 47703

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center