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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Old Sailor
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Re: slip sliding west [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17115 - Sat Jul 31 2004 01:59 AM

The more I look at both 90L and 99L, get the feeling they both may go the way of the other invest. end up doing nothing, but tomorrow going to be interesting to see..

Dave


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h2ocean
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Re: slip sliding west [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17116 - Sat Jul 31 2004 02:06 AM

Earlier during the last Vis. loop, it looked like the LLC was heading just north of due west towards FL, and it still may be. But on the WV loop, you see there was a bit of a dry slot near a mid to upper level low, which seems to be filling in a little and even a hint of convection building near it. If you look at this part of the system, it is not moving much - maybe a little NW, but if you look at the Dvorak loop, it looks like the main part is moving due west towards Cape Canaveral. Of course this is typical of weak systems where it is not vertically stacked at the low and mid-upper levels. We really won't know until the next Vis. images are available in the morning.

WV Loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Dvorak Loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html

Also of interest, check out the latest latest GFDL run on 99L, look east of the islands at the end of the loop...it is the wave off of Africa. Nearly all of the models are now developing the wave. The high in the middle of the atlantic should allow for the system to move close to the US.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdl...;hour=Animation

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station

Edited by h2ocean (Sat Jul 31 2004 02:08 AM)


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Anonymous
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From Cancun [Re: h2ocean]
      #17118 - Sat Jul 31 2004 03:38 AM

Hi , reading all your comments with interested for years now ....here is a link to the Cancun radar ...guess you might like it ...specially for the next days ...cheers http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

Andreas


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Tropics Guy
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Re:Thanks for the radar site [Re: Anonymous]
      #17119 - Sat Jul 31 2004 04:00 AM

Thanks for the link to the cancun radar., if 90L can get it's act together, it may come in handy. Currently convection is on the wane, we'll see if any new T-storms blow up around the center tonite. 99L has lost a lot of its convection in the past few hours and is looking kinda ragged., we'll see what the morning brings.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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HanKFranK
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24 hours of limbo [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17120 - Sat Jul 31 2004 04:55 AM

this is just like last night... with just minor changes. not what i expected to say the least.
99L is at d1.5, has been there all day. since it's been hanging on the flank of an upper low and in a diffluent/shear environment, there's all this talk about calling it subtropical. NHC is in on the act. i think that's stupid, but too many voices to just blow off.
anyhow, my ideas from yesterday are blown, except for the track. it's about where i was saying, though not classified. only structural difference from last night is that the 'robber convection' (that is, convection that blocks potential inflow and low level convergence from taking place with an embryonic low) is now just east of the center, where it can do some good. less certain, but still think it will be alex tomorrow.
track should turn northward very close to the coast.. none of that n.c. stuff, this is upper florida to lower south carolina all the way. i've been watching the cumulus clouds float by my grandpa's all day from the southeast.. that is the low level driving flow for now.
90L is depressed to the yucatan channel now. probably just about done being jammed sw. ideas on it haven't changed, since it's doing what i want it to. it's interaction with the other system has been that it get's sloppy seconds on inflow and convective support. 99L isn't a permanent fixture however, and this should change over the weekend. probably a classifiable system somewhere north of cancun on sunday. that's if all the stuff that is now firing along cuba doesn't start something first (it is stealing the fire).
possible invest on that new wave. of course it will probably drop everything, but there may be enough left for it to start something. GFS has been harping on it for days, so it's a watcher at least.
that's the story. botched timetables so far, but not totally out to pasture. nite all.
HF 0454z31july


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Steve
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Re: 24 hours of limbo [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17121 - Sat Jul 31 2004 05:11 AM

Decent quickscat on 90L @ NRL site It's definitely @ 24N, but I can't make out the longitude line from their site. It's a fairly tight and eliptical low with not /that much/ wind. But the cirulcation is there nonetheless. Nothing much to report tonight. SOI is slightly negative (= neutral), SST's are up in the mid gulf (kindlin), and there's a spot between where 90L's at now and the TX/MX coast that allegedly could support < 900mb action. I don't know what's up with 99L. I agree with all that say some type of center is moving toward the FL coast. Some convection is even on the Peninsula. A wave that disengaged itself will be hooking up with 90L sometime tomorrow. Could that be the ignition switch? Or will it just enhance whatever storms fire off tomorrow? We'll see. Nothing is certain, but I like both of my earlier predictions. I'll give it another look tomorrow.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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James88
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Re: 24 hours of limbo [Re: Steve]
      #17123 - Sat Jul 31 2004 09:39 AM

Well, neither system is any better organised at the moment, but the latest TWO says that there is still potential for development.

Maybe we should cast our eyes east - the wave in the central Atlantic is looking really good this morning. It is moving into warmer waters and is situated in reasonably moist air. I'm not sure what the shear is like out there, but maybe this wave will become a player in a couple of days. As HF said, it could fall apart, but it might not. The UKMET joined the GFS in calling for a system yesterday, so it makes you wonder. What do you guys think?

Edited by James88 (Sat Jul 31 2004 09:42 AM)


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Anonymous
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Re: 24 hours of limbo [Re: James88]
      #17124 - Sat Jul 31 2004 09:55 AM

Quote:

Well, neither system is any better organised at the moment, but the latest TWO says that there is still potential for development.

Maybe we should cast our eyes east - the wave in the central Atlantic is looking really good this morning. It is moving into warmer waters and is situated in reasonably moist air. I'm not sure what the shear is like out there, but maybe this wave will become a player in a couple of days. As HF said, it could fall apart, but it might not. The UKMET joined the GFS in calling for a system yesterday, so it makes you wonder. What do you guys think?




Bahamas system runs out of real estate before it can really get going.

Gulf system needs to get W befire it can do anything.

East Atlantic wave now on floater #2. Certainly our first CV system to follow but still seems a little early for anything to develop.

Not what you guys want to hear but as usual August starts prime time.


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Hurricane
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Re: 24 hours of limbo [Re: Anonymous]
      #17125 - Sat Jul 31 2004 10:18 AM

Floater 2 Image seems to me that it is Darby in the EastPac

cu...
Hurricane


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LadyStorm
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Flight Schedule??? [Re: MikeC]
      #17126 - Sat Jul 31 2004 10:55 AM

Does anyone here know what the flight schedule for 99L is today? :?:

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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LadyStorm
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Answering My Own Question..:) [Re: MikeC]
      #17127 - Sat Jul 31 2004 11:25 AM

Did some searching on the net in answer to my question of today's flight plan:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1200 PM EDT FRI 30 JULY 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JUL TO 01/1100Z AUG 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-062

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/1200,1800Z A. 01/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 02CCA CYCLONE B. AFXXX 03CCA CYCLONE
C. 31/1000Z C. 31/2130Z
D. 29.5.0N 78.0W D. 31.0N 79.0W
E. 31/1100Z TO 31/1830Z E. 31/2300Z TO 01/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

3. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 31/1630Z
D. 26.0N 87.5W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 01/1200Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
5. REMARKS: INVEST SCHEDULED FOR 30/1700Z ON THIS SYSTEM
CANCELLED BY NHC AT 30/1230Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Hurric
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Re: 24 hours of limbo [Re: Steve]
      #17128 - Sat Jul 31 2004 11:46 AM

Quote:

I agree with all that say some type of center is moving toward the FL coast. Some convection is even on the Peninsula. I haven't used the quote button before and Hope that I am quoting Steve correctly. This Link to Melbourne NWS radar clearly shows the circulation around whatever kind ot center has been slowly moving towards the florida coast the past 24 hours. Melbourne Radar

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javlin
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Re: Answering My Own Question..:) [Re: LadyStorm]
      #17129 - Sat Jul 31 2004 11:49 AM

If these two systems look later today like they do now there will be no recon.90L getting more shear ans 99L looking ragged.

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caneman
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Re: Answering My Own Question..:) [Re: javlin]
      #17130 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:00 PM

I personally think that 99 looks like it is beginning to finally wrap up.

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LadyStorm
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Re: Answering My Own Question..:) [Re: caneman]
      #17131 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:24 PM

I wasn't impressed either, the last time, I checked the radar. I guess we just wait and see.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Anonymous
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I just don't see 99L moving NW.... [Re: LadyStorm]
      #17132 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:31 PM

I might be wrong, but it looks to me like it's heading due w or just slightly north of w right for Daytona Beach. The first few visuals are in, after we get a few more we will have a better idea.

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caneman
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Re: Answering My Own Question..:) [Re: LadyStorm]
      #17133 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:32 PM

To the contrary. It finally looks like it is independent of the ULL and is starting to wrap. I believe we'll see a TD today.

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Hurric
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Re: Answering My Own Question..:) [Re: LadyStorm]
      #17134 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:56 PM

Just not a lot happening fast with 99L. It looks like a big disorganized blob to me except for the swirl off the central Florida coast. This area int that far from land and unless something changes today the drift towards the WNW will bring it near the coast.

It looks like the possibility of a center forming or reforming further to the East or SE does exist and I am thinking this would be the best bet for further strengthening.

The skies are dark this morning and just a few drops of moisture being squeezed out here in Port St. Lucie. Humm, I guess if this system can attain at least TD status then a claim of rains from a tropical system will be claimed on east central Florida coast. Something inspirational about potential development in this part of the world that encourages me to want to post. The season is near. I can finally feel it. Keep the great posts coming.
Melbourne NWS discussion is interesting and as always a great read. Mel Discus


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Tropics Guy
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Re: east atlantic wave [Re: caneman]
      #17135 - Sat Jul 31 2004 12:59 PM

Not to drop the ball on 99L which looks better this morning, but the east atlantic wave sw of the CV islands is still holding together., I believe that this is the wave that some of the models develop. SST's, shear & environment around it look rather favorable., may see an invest on it later today or tomorow "IF" it holds together.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Rabbit
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Re: east atlantic wave [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17136 - Sat Jul 31 2004 01:32 PM

vis loop
wv loop

99L appears not to be falling apart but is actually getting better organized
note the strong low cloud rotation around the system, the large amount of convection over the center, and note the small upper level ridging right over the thunderstorms
plus, its drifting over the gulf stream now
that looks pretty favorable to me


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