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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Idalia) , Major: 294 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 294 (Idalia) Major: 294 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Tropical Tremors
      #17137 - Sat Jul 31 2004 02:02 PM

From famine to feast (well - almost). The Atlantic table no longer has a few meager scraps on it and the real start of the season is finally getting underway. I'll try to keep this short since I think that this thread may soon become obsolete.

In the past six hours the basin has really jump-started with activity. I guess that Mother Nature found the ignition switch. Invest 99L east of central Florida and moving just north of due west with a primary center near 28.9N 79.1W at 31/12Z. Convection remains south and east of the center and Recon did not find any significant wind this morning. The system is better organized and could become a significant rain maker for central Florida.

Update on 99L: Secondary center at 30.1N 77.2W at 14Z (moving northwest) now showing signs of becoming the primary center. It will be interesting to watch the interaction between this center and the developing system near 32N 62W.

Invest 90L still poorly organized near 23.7N 89.4W at 12Z. Movement continues to be toward the west with a small area of convection firing to the south of the center. Models still suggest eventual strengthening of this system.

West northwestward moving tropical wave near 8N 55.6W with good convection primarily to its south.

Wave south of Cuba near 19.7N 79.8W with convection refiring and very little movement.

Remnant ULL also refiring convection - possible weak LLCC at 22.6N 72.0W. Also with little movement - keep an eye on this one.

An ignored system with perhaps the best structure (and potential) at 32N 62W. This one has circulation and plenty of convection - signs of rapid intensification.

The southern connection with a vigorous wave at 10N 30W. This one has potential but it will take a few days to get better organized (if it does). I'm still a bit uncertain on this one.

The African connection: Strong wave near 11N 15W getting ready to exit the coast in the next 24 hours. Significant wave near 7N 15E if you really want to look at a system with long range potential.

Thats it - but that is a lot of areas to keep an eye on... and we will.
ED

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Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 31 2004 02:37 PM)


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Tremors [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17138 - Sat Jul 31 2004 03:07 PM

Now we're starting to cook.

ABNT20 KNHC 311504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
REPORTS AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE
AIRCRAFT DID REPORT 25 TO 30 MPH SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVED NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ANY DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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LI Phil
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Re: Tropical Tremors [Re: caneman]
      #17140 - Sat Jul 31 2004 04:21 PM

Excellent post Ed. You covered all the bases. Just wanted to give a quick JB synopsis.

He thinks 99L will tighten up today and tonight and head towards NC tomorrow into Monday (Points out we may be seeing a rare case of a storm forming and being seen on land-based radar-Melbourne). He also thinks, whether this develops or not, that once it moves into NC, it will not run up the coast but head out to sea. He's afraid it could be a fairly strong storm when it hits NC.

90L, if it doesn't develop thunderstorms today, will not be able to push that rock up the hill. He will post later today on this one.

It's going to be close to 90 and with like 100% humidity here today, so I'm going to the beach. Water temps above 70 so it should be a refreshing dip in the Atlantic.

Need to get back before 5:30 for the TWO . Will we have NONAME01L today? If we do, I'm popping the bottle of champagne I've been saving since late May this evening

Cheers all!

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


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Re: Tropical Tremors [Re: LI Phil]
      #17141 - Sat Jul 31 2004 04:26 PM

I like that african connection because looks promising even the first wave SW of the CV islands although I dont think this is the wave the models want to develop is the one emerging now west africa.So let's see what happens as august arrives and with it the CV season gets into full gear.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LI Phil
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Quikscat on 99L [Re: Cycloneye]
      #17142 - Sat Jul 31 2004 04:30 PM

Check this out, some 35 knot readings near the "center?":

Quikscat

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


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First Storm [Re: LI Phil]
      #17143 - Sat Jul 31 2004 04:32 PM

The tropics have exactly 11 hours and 25 minutes to form for us to get a July storm. What timing!!!! Things are getting hot in the tropics.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


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Re: First Storm [Re: PFSThunder]
      #17144 - Sat Jul 31 2004 04:41 PM

Here in Jacksonville we're getting some sunshine followed by a cloud burst, followed by more sun that causes steam to come off the house and street, followed by another cloud burst......... it's going to be one of THOSE days......

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: First Storm [Re: joepub1]
      #17145 - Sat Jul 31 2004 04:50 PM

Here in Cocoa Beach, we've got bands of periodic rain with no sun out...

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LI Phil
User


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7/31 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17146 - Sat Jul 31 2004 05:05 PM

On May 16, 2004, Ed Dunham made this post:

For this season, my totally unscientific guess for the date of the first named storm of the season is July 31st


Votes accepted from (Wed Jun 19 2024 02:55 PM) to (No end specified)
View the results of this poll



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: 7/31 [Re: LI Phil]
      #17147 - Sat Jul 31 2004 05:23 PM

WOW. Things are erupting today. Check out the 12Z IR of the African coast, now that's a wave! It even has two red eyes and a mouth!!!! Ed, what's your gut feel for the remnant ULL? I noticed you said keep an eye on it. Will the Alex (?) go Near NC then out to sea, followed by high pressure building over the eastern seaboard with the ULL going to the surface then move WNW??? Just a thought Looks like the wait is over

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HanKFranK
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7/31, ed's called shot [Re: Steve Hirschb.]
      #17148 - Sat Jul 31 2004 05:44 PM

quick shot of obs.
99L is a tropical depression. the NHC may be aware of this and should make this same observation shortly. i'm still not on the nc bandwagon, though history has taught me this is usually the safest course, i'm sticking with it running the georgia coast if not landfalling there. the current steering mechanism is breaking down, and it will be changing course near 80w.. and slowing down. it may be intensifying right along the coast tomorrow and monday.
ed pointed to a convective blow up out near bermuda. i'm slightly more impressed by the one near 30/70. i had pretty much overlooked it. that upper energy descent sw-ward east of bermuda i hadn't overlooked.. noticed models calling for it a few days back. it will in the end be of the same ilk as 99L and the system between it and 99L (partially induced by energy backing southwest around the bermuda high). erika last summer originated in this way. no cause for alarm and it will ultimately turn into the north atlantic even if it can muster a surface system.
90L continues to meander and not develop. this one has time on its side. dealing with 'robber convection' that has been persisting around cuba and around 99L. it may continue to wander, but really all it needs is one good burst..
its future is probably to the west around texas, i'll concede. with it taking forever to develop, predicting its movement thus far has been 'drifting west'. dependent on when/if it starts a whole realm of possible tracks have and will exist.
east atlanitc:
probably will be an invest, as noted earlier by others, on the system near 10/30. most of it's torque is mid level.. sloppy e-w oblong trough at the surface. racing in the deep easterlies.. not going to do much until it drops a gear or two. a good shot of subsidence would probably be lethal now.. with the SAL hanging out there that is always likely.
more waves behind it. GFS has been triggerhappy with the lot of them, so they're always worth checking up on. we've reached the threshold for the east atlantic.. the sweet spot is still three-five weeks in the future.
HF 1744z31july


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James88
Weather Master


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Re: 7/31, ed's called shot [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17149 - Sat Jul 31 2004 06:22 PM

I wonder if we'll get a STDS soon. Whatever the case, I would be very surprised if we didn't have a TD within the next 6 hours. It probably is one already, as HF said.

Edited by James88 (Sat Jul 31 2004 06:23 PM)


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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Re: 7/31, ed's called shot [Re: James88]
      #17150 - Sat Jul 31 2004 06:50 PM

when is the next recon going out?

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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Re: 7/31, ed's called shot [Re: GaryC]
      #17151 - Sat Jul 31 2004 06:57 PM

??? If it says 700 z or 1300z what time is that? I mean how far of a difference is that from est?

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LI Phil
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Zulu Time [Re: GaryC]
      #17152 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:02 PM

Zulu time, also known as Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) or UTC (Universal Time C???), is 5 hours ahead of US EDT (Daylight Savings Time), and 4 hours ahead of US EST (Standard Time). So, to figure out what time it is, simply subtract 5 hours from Zulu time.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
Unregistered




RRecon [Re: GaryC]
      #17153 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:04 PM

Next recon scheduled for 5:30 eastern time

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DustDuchess
Weather Watcher


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Re: 7/31, ed's called shot [Re: GaryC]
      #17154 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:05 PM

Z -time is + or - 4 hours in stardard time and 5 hours in daylight savings time. 1300 hours is 9:00 am in eastern daylight time and 1:00pm in military time.

--------------------
Good or bad, weather is all there is.


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


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Re: RRecon [Re: Anonymous]
      #17155 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:29 PM

The Navy is now calling 99L a TD , as 01.

Dave


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LI Phil
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17:45 Dvorak #s [Re: DustDuchess]
      #17156 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:29 PM

Well, the 17:45 T's are out and they are still at 1.5/1.5. I'm guessing they don't upgrade @5:30; rather, they'll probably wait for the next recon report, which won't occur until after the next TWO. I'd like to be wrong, as I agree with HF and James that it's already a TD. Still got that champagne chillin' though.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
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Melbourne Radar [Re: LI Phil]
      #17157 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:35 PM

Pretty neat...look at that sucker spinning

Melbourne radar

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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