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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Rob_M
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TD1 OFFICIAL [Re: LI Phil]
      #17158 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:46 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

01L.NONAME



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Rob Mann
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LI Phil
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Re: TD1 OFFICIAL [Re: Rob_M]
      #17159 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:48 PM

Quick question Rob,

Just because the Navy says its a TD, does that mean NHC will automatically comply at 5:30?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rob_M
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Re: TD1 OFFICIAL [Re: LI Phil]
      #17160 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:51 PM

Yes. The NRL doesn't make it's own decisions...it just carries over what has already been decided by the NHC. Also, the 19Z SHIPS run labels it as AL012004, rather than AL992004. So we can count on the first advisory at 5PM.

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LI Phil
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Champagne TOAST! [Re: Rob_M]
      #17161 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:55 PM

Thank you kindly Rob (you da) Mann! Shoulda bought Veuve instead of Korbel...didn't think it would sit in the fridge for two months . Steve, you got a Stella Artois on ice?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


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Re: Champagne TOAST! [Re: LI Phil]
      #17162 - Sat Jul 31 2004 07:57 PM

Finally! It's taken two months but we finally have something! Next stop Alex.

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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Re: Champagne TOAST! [Re: James88]
      #17163 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:01 PM

We are getting some nice rain here in Jax. I dont know if you can classify them as feeder bands yet. Still lots of rain though.

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Rabbit
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Re: Champagne TOAST! [Re: GaryC]
      #17164 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:21 PM

this started looking organized when I checked the radar a few hours ago (on the local forecast)

It would have been a surprise to go until tomorrow without a depression forming.

has potential before moving inland to become Alex tomorrow if the 35 knot wind mentioned in an earlier post turns out to be true.
(small note: windows ME is gone and replaced with 2000)

an interesting note is that despite what it had seemed judging by earlier systems, the years first system is of tropical origin, having exited Africa around July 18 and was the system near Puerto Rico about a week ago


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Anonymous
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Re: Champagne TOAST! [Re: Rabbit]
      #17165 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:35 PM

TD 1 has made it....... 5pm est NHC

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James88
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Tropical Depression One [Re: Anonymous]
      #17166 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:38 PM

Here's the first discussion:-

** WTNT41 KNHC 312031 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST HAS SHOWN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB. THUS...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ONE WITH 25 KT WINDS. WHILE THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE...THE CENTER WAS VERY POORLY DEFINED ON THE RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT THIS MORNING...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF THE FLIGHT
SCHEDULED FOR 0000Z FINDS THE SAME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/8. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW
DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVING EASTWARD.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WITH THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE BEING HOW
FAST IT MOVES AFTER RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL
CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 24 HR AND
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 36 HR...BRUSHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA...
SEVERAL MODELS RECURVE THE CYCLONE SHARPLY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
CENTER OFFSHORE.

THIS LARGE AND POORLY DEFINED SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME TO
CONSOLIDATE EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST. WHAT
INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE CLEARS THE U.S. EAST
COAST IS QUESTIONABLE...AS THE LARGE SCALE MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER IT WILL DISSIPATE OR STRENGTHEN DURING INTERACTION WITH THE
WESTERLIES. FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND KEEP A STEADY 40 KT UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AT
THIS TIME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IN A LATER
ADVISORY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 30.6N 78.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 31.5N 79.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 34.0N 78.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/1800Z 35.2N 76.6W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/1800Z 37.5N 73.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 04/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 46.0N 57.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

Sounds like Alex is on his way.


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Anonymous
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Re: Tropical Depression One [Re: James88]
      #17167 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:40 PM

TS watch has been issued for SE coast

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Anonymous
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Re: Tropical Depression One [Re: Anonymous]
      #17168 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:41 PM

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004



...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2004 SEASON FORMS OFF THE

SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...TROPICAL STORM WATCH

ISSUED...



AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM

EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...

INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE

NEXT 36 HOURS.



AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...

LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF

CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.



THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST

OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...

MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME SLOW

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE

DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.



REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.6 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.



AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.



FORECASTER BEVEN


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression One [Re: Anonymous]
      #17169 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:46 PM

WTNT71 KNHC 312033
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

32.9N 79.2W 47 X X X 47 NORFOLK VA X 1 10 5 16
34.0N 78.0W 17 7 1 X 25 OCEAN CITY MD X X 3 9 12
35.2N 76.6W X 12 5 2 19 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 9 10
JACKSONVILLE FL 2 X X 1 3 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 7 7
SAVANNAH GA 26 X X X 26 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 5 5
CHARLESTON SC 45 X X X 45 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3
MYRTLE BEACH SC 30 1 X X 31 NANTUCKET MA X X X 3 3
WILMINGTON NC 12 10 2 X 24 HYANNIS MA X X X 3 3
MOREHEAD CITY NC 2 13 4 1 20 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2
CAPE HATTERAS NC X 7 8 3 18

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Re: Tropical Depression One [Re: Anonymous]
      #17170 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:46 PM

Bring on Alex!!!

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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Re: Tropical Depression One [Re: GaryC]
      #17171 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:49 PM

Here is the biggest thing I was thinking. I have always heard and been told that you cant really predict where a depression will go because of it being too weak. What changes this way of thinking for this storm? I mean the %'s say it will go to the carolina's. Am I wrong in thinking that?

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Tropical Depression One [Re: GaryC]
      #17172 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:54 PM

does anyone think it has time to develop into alex

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ticka1
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Re: Tropical Depression One [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17173 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:56 PM

Alex might be a possibility depending on how long the system stays over the water and not move inland.

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LI Phil
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Alex [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17174 - Sat Jul 31 2004 08:56 PM

NHC thinks so...

wunderground tracking

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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James88
Weather Master


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Re: Alex [Re: LI Phil]
      #17175 - Sat Jul 31 2004 09:00 PM

It will probably reach tropical storm strength, since it has some time before it reaches land, and even then it is forecast to recurve out to sea, so it will have a chance. It's just nice to finally have something to track!

How's the champagne Phil?


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


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Re: Alex [Re: LI Phil]
      #17177 - Sat Jul 31 2004 09:14 PM

Phil are you drinking champange? Finnally something to track.!!.What I am watching more closely is the african train connection that looks ready to leave the station.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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James88
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Re: Alex [Re: Cycloneye]
      #17179 - Sat Jul 31 2004 09:16 PM

Yes, Cycloneye - it's looking pretty interesting out there. How much longer until we meet Bonnie? (Whenever she arrives, I think I'll focus on Alex for now.

Edited by James88 (Sat Jul 31 2004 09:18 PM)


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