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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: GOM hints of a possible mid/upper level circulation [Re: teal61]
      #17324 - Sun Aug 01 2004 11:51 PM

Good eye Frank. That may be the E half of 90L. About midnite last night it did a split. W half moved toward Tampico at 10-15kts. E half was drifting slighly N most of the nite. The dry area N of the circ. is consistant with what we saw last nite. I don't see any reflection in the GMX buoys, but then I don't really see anyhting off JAX to indicate Alex is there. Strange pressure gradients.

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Frank P
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Re: GOM hints of a possible mid/upper level circulation [Re: teal61]
      #17325 - Sun Aug 01 2004 11:52 PM

Hey teal61, thanks, and I agree with you about 90L which never did get its act together since developing the broad LLC off the coast of SW FL and whats left of it, if you can find it, is in the western GOM. Sorry about not putting up the vis sat loop link, my bad, but you used the same one I did, the NASA GHCC site. I'm certainly not saying anything is imminent in the GOM, but you get some disturbed weather lingering around long enough, and its August, anything is possible.

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Frank P
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Re: GOM hints of a possible mid/upper level circulation [Re: danielw]
      #17326 - Mon Aug 02 2004 12:01 AM

Yeah Danielw, my good Mississippi neighbor to the north, being a USM alumni I'm quite familar with Hattiesburg.

I noticed the same thing last night as well, the split, and the eastern half drifting north to nnw. I've been trying to find a circulation all day and late this evening is the closest I got to finding anything hinting of a circulation. You get that much disturbed weather in the GOM, you just have to monitor it for some kind of circulation.... something for us to watch over the day or so... People on the east coast have the main action this evening.... Alex might just surprise a few people before its all said and done.


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Anonymous
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Alex.... [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17327 - Mon Aug 02 2004 12:01 AM

been on web last hrs or so and looking at Upper-Level Wind Shear..... notice -3hrs and -3hrs before..... the anticyclonic flow (near SE GA, not to far from Alex) looks like it will make it to the storm overnight and set-up for an interesting night and early morning......
not to mention alex is right over the Gulf Stream and shallow water (100m-800m)......
could alex become a strong TS by morning/maybe cat 1 hurr?

landfall doesn't look like it will happen on the storm......

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

(-3hrs a few times) and forward


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Anonymous
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Alex....South? [Re: Anonymous]
      #17328 - Mon Aug 02 2004 12:09 AM

WTNT31 KNHC 012344
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004

...ALEX STATIONARY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS
INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ALEX REMAINS STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CONDITIONS FAVOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...MAINLY
IN SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...31.5 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: GOM hints of a possible mid/upper level circulation [Re: Frank P]
      #17329 - Mon Aug 02 2004 12:12 AM

Waiting on update. Buoy 42001 is indicating baro. "falling rapidly". Shows a 3.4mb drop over 3hrs. 1015.6 to 1012.2 from 20z to 23z. Wind dropped from 15.7 kts to 5.2 kts in 45 mins.
Buoy located at 25.84N and 89.66W. Should be at or near the circ. FrankP was describing.
01/23 42001 25.8 -89.7 aT27.9 dpt24.6 w230at 6 G 6 pkG180at17kt bar1012.2 -3.4mb/3hr seaT30.7 wv ht1.0 wv pd5


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Anonymous
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recon [Re: Anonymous]
      #17330 - Mon Aug 02 2004 12:15 AM

1006 mb and observed 50kts winds?.......

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?


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LI Phil
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Whoa there... [Re: Anonymous]
      #17331 - Mon Aug 02 2004 12:34 AM

Latest Dvorak's still at 2.0/2.0. I wouldn't expect much further strengthening overnight with Alex.

As far as the GOM, don't write off 90L just yet. Anything in that warm a water always has a chance...

91L "too weak", so it's got a long way to go.

Tomorrow will be make or break for those two systems, and I expect Alex to get above 50 mph.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Whoa there... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17332 - Mon Aug 02 2004 12:43 AM

Noticing a rather strong buildup in the NE quad-finally. I think East Coast residents ought to be glad that Alex is in near shore enviroment. Inflow seems to be messing up the storm machine. Consistant Recon reports of Max Wind in SE quad.

I think I may have jumped the gun on the buoy pressure drop in the GMX. It's still showing a more than diurnal pressure drop, but not much else.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Whoa there... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17333 - Mon Aug 02 2004 01:14 AM

I see Alex at about it's max... not much more? The GOM... always possible but not real keen on it now... looking east young man!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Anonymous
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Re: recon [Re: Anonymous]
      #17337 - Mon Aug 02 2004 01:41 AM

Uhh, no one seems to have noticed...the recon prssure has fallen RAPIDLY, 996mb!!! Wasn't the last advisory 999?? And 50kt flight level winds, they are saying 45kts at the surface...so, Alex wil probably be 50 mph at 11pm.

Looking at the IR, seems it is still stationary, and may be reforming to the s.....

sc

Agree with other posters re: Gulf...too much energy there and too much going on....88degree water temp at St. Makrks, and a report was relayed to me Friday of 91 (NINETY ONE!) degree water temps in SW Fl...! Have to watch the Gulf closely.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: recon [Re: Anonymous]
      #17340 - Mon Aug 02 2004 02:03 AM

I don't see any reports, anywhere of 999mb. Last vortex report was 1008mb with a Max Wind of 45kt in SE quad, at 0119Z or 9:19pm EDT.
What source are you using for your reports?


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hurricane_run
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11 pm [Re: danielw]
      #17341 - Mon Aug 02 2004 02:38 AM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 020226
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004

...ALEX REMAINS STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ALEX REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX.

HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.5 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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hurricane_run
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Re: 11 pm [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17342 - Mon Aug 02 2004 02:39 AM

the pressure is droping

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LoisCane
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alex [Re: Anonymous]
      #17343 - Mon Aug 02 2004 02:43 AM

Debating what to say and think I'm not going to say whats on my mind.

Only will say that Tropical storms are wierd..and weather is not always where the "center" is and sometimes its hard to really see the "center"

Maybe those were straight line winds ??? ok.. being silly.

The thing that amazes me is this.. when you have these storms like IRENE where the core is hard to find and the "weather mass" is a perfectly round blob with perfect symmetry with strongest weather in the middle.. well there has to be a way of handling them that the public understands them.

Weather in South Florida linked all the way back to Alex in some band like/tail (josephine?) and you can't say its not related. yes we have a trough .. an weakness in the atmosphere ...etc.. but curled right in. Maybe all that energy from down south helped strengthen him a drop? If it did..

Personally I think that the wave out there gets an A for tenacity and for maintaining itself in less than perfect conditions. Compells you to pay attention.

Enjoyed Jim/hurricanecity's broadcast tonight. Interesting to hear more about entities that we all use and know of online. A great night to sit in the room, listen to the rain fall and think on where we are going this year and where we have been. Think this is the first of several storms to affect the coastal united states.

Think we all should get ready.. think on what we would do, what our priorities are and make a plan.. because some of us are going to be under the gun.

Thats it.

Nite and keep staring..hoping he won't linger much longer and move on out before he messes things up for a lot of people along the coast who have already had way too much rain lately.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Old Sailor
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Re: 11 pm [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17344 - Mon Aug 02 2004 02:48 AM

Like I was saying early today , we should be looking to the east for maybe our first Hurricane of the season 4 to 5 days looks to be maybe a cat 1

Dave


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hurricane_run
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out east [Re: Old Sailor]
      #17345 - Mon Aug 02 2004 02:54 AM

think it'll be a depressionin 24-48 hrs or later than that?
there also a nice looking wave coming off off africa.


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hurricane_run
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Re: out east [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17346 - Mon Aug 02 2004 02:56 AM

look at the wave coming off the coast
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg


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Jamiewx
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Re: out east [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17347 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:00 AM

91L seems to be pulling itself together tonight, some colder cloud tops showing up on the IR loop. Wonder what tomorrows T-numbers will be for this one. Even the TWO is looking at the prospect of a Depression from 91L. Looked at the wave coming off Africa too, does anyone see a slight turning in the wave? I thought i did, but i like to be sure.

A note for the Admin Team, not sure if you guys have noticed this, but the Advisory on Alex at the top of the page seems to sort of out-run itself resulting in the advisories not being scrolled across correctly.


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hurricane_run
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Re: 11 pm [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17348 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:01 AM

the 11pm discussion calls for "SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT" nite HR

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