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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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hurricane_run
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Re: out east [Re: Jamiewx]
      #17349 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:02 AM

I see some slight turning also. thought it was only me though

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Tropics Guy
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Re: looking east...... [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17350 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:04 AM

From the 10:30 TWO:A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

That was the mid-atlantic wave, and down the road the wave coming off of Africa looks pretty strong, could be another one to watch.

and yes, bobbi, I think that the severe storms that rolled through S. Fla today were indirectly induced by Alex.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: out east [Re: Jamiewx]
      #17351 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:04 AM

It was large and symmetrical until it hit the water. Yes, there is a circ. in there. Latest outlook indicates shear over the western most wave is decreasing and the convection is moving back over the center.

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Old Sailor
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Re: out east [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17352 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:14 AM

I think if it's going to fire up it be fast like 1 to 2 days TD, next day TS and then Bonnie, also if doesn't make TD by 3 days would most likely stay a wave.

Dave


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joepub1
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91L and friend, plus Alex [Re: Old Sailor]
      #17353 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:16 AM

I agree that the CV season is about to present us with at least one, if not two more features to track. But first I'll say for a TS that appears to be getting stronger, and the pressure is down to 1007 mb, you can't tell by being here in Jax. Hardly any rain today, very warm, slight but steady N/NW wind. You just couldn't con me into believing that there was a TS out there if I didn't know it. More weather yesterday when it was east of here instead of NE for sure. But he does look more like a classic baby TS now then he did. Not bad for the first one of the season.

The models already are killing me in the deep atlantic. The AVN had twins forming before the islands four, five runs ago, I swear. Now it has backed off of that, yet it seems that is what might happen. 91L is giving another burst tonight, and the TPC says a depression could form in the next day or two. But I think it's the wave that came off Africa today that most models are giving some kind of chance to form. Most miss the first one, but it looks OK to me. Chances are we may get two though. If 91lL develops, then the future 92L (or 93L, what's going on in the SE GOM???) should develop also IMO. The bigger picture shows the BH weaking as Alex moves up the coast, allowing some northwest movement of 91L, but then the door seems to shut again before it can get away. 91L is down around 11-12 N anyway; it has alot of room to work with. Todays wave seemed a tad bit higher, but the door should shut long before it gets developed ( if it does). We should keep one one peeking out that way for the next couple of days.


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HanKFranK
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Re: 91L and friend, plus Alex [Re: joepub1]
      #17355 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:49 AM

not a bad post title. think i'll borrow it.
everything of interest in the atlantic is getting better organized this evening. aside from alex only 91L is on the verge of development at this point. rather than recap i'll add my spin to the mix.
alex is getting better organized, plain and simple. taking into account that shear is decreasing and the storm is over the gulf stream, this makes plenty of sense. so now it has an intact CDO, which means alex will probably not remain dinky and laughable for too much longer. the NHC is sticking to their near/just offshore track while backpedaling on the timetable, as the storm continues to wobble around in place (actually drifted south some today). with the increased organization and the fact that conditions will continue to improve, i expect alex to be knocking on hurricane strength by tomorrow afternoon. it may do some emergency ridge-pumping as that shortwave moves in, and have to jerk left around it.. maybe come ashore monday night or tuesday just a little. just a thought, since some of the others have worked.
91L, as mentioned continues to draw looks. ssd had it as 1.0 earlier, now it's back to TW.. but the scant convection earlier is more robust tonight. there's even a reverse arc to the thunderstorm exhaust that suggests outflow. while it's speed suggests that only a mid-level vorticity max and surface hairpin in the trades exist, it is slowly decelerating. the arc of convection north/west of the vortmax and along the ITCZ suggest it means business. at around 11N it has the sort of trajectory that would spell trouble for the islands, and the globals are slowing it down (still not calling for much development though). model support or no, if this system were moving at 15mph it would probably be a depression, and it should have slowed to near there by tuesday.. it has good chances of being t.d. 2.
behind 91L is another, system, and invest not yet dubbed. GFS has been making a fish spinner out of this for almost a week.. and it's come off looking good. all those phantom systems we were mentioning last week coming out into the MDR are insisting they are real.
old 90L remnants have a weak hook of convection but nothing going for it. away east is diffluence-generated convection that is sort of trained into alex. doubt the degree of separation exists for that to do anything.
heed the mid-level system near 23/57 following the periphery of the ridge. it's one of those shortwave fragments that loop around the ridges and sometimes start stuff. globals have seen it for days and made it look interesting. a watcher at least.
odd sidenote.. TD six is coming back to life in the eastpac.
the developing pattern in the eastern u.s. is one that will close the east coast to the tropics late week through next weekend, but then leave it wide open into the following week. that's if consecutive GFS runs are telling the truth about the behavior of the longwaves extending from the arctic.
if we get MDR development it will be interesting times ahead.
HF 0349z02august


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Cycloneye
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Re: 91L and friend, plus Alex [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17356 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:04 AM

Great post as always HF.About 91L agree that it looks to be TD#2 tommorow or the next day.Still it has to contend with sal out there but that has faded compared with past weeks so I give 91L a 60% to develop and of course from here in Puerto Rico I am watching it very closely.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L and friend, plus Alex [Re: Cycloneye]
      #17357 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:17 AM

The KJAX Nexrad Profiler is starting to show an area of 20-25kt northerly winds creeping into the area for the last hour. Between 25-30K ft.
Is this more indicative of the storm diameter increasing westward, or just some slight change in the dynamics?
Winds from 11-24,000 ft are No Data, and the winds from 2K-10k and mostly NW at 25-30kts.
Looks like JAX may be windy tomorrow!

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?JAX

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 02 2004 04:19 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Radar Data [Re: danielw]
      #17358 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:48 AM

To see what danielw is talking about, under 'Other Products', click on VAD. The Velocity Azimuth Display is a product derived from the radar data (not really a true Profiler). The missing data areas are simply areas where there were no reflectors such as cloud, precip, dust, etc., to create a radar return signal. A real neat link - thanks Daniel.
Cheers,
ED


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Radar Data [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17360 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:03 AM

Thanks Ed,
I should have given an explanation on how to access the data. Actually the only product that this site is missing is the long range radar. I use it mostly for convective systems in the states. Thought you all might like to try it out. Good luck.
Danny


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L and friend, plus Alex [Re: danielw]
      #17361 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:42 AM

Here's a Sat link that you can watch Alex and 91L on. Links at the top switch from IR to WV, etc.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html


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Joe
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Re: Radar Data [Re: danielw]
      #17362 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:49 AM

Alex getting much better organized. Looking at the radar and satellite loops storm structure is improving quite a bit and could be on it's way to a strong TS today. Still sitting nearly stationary over the warm gulf stream and I expect this to continue through first half of Mon before a NNE-NE movement is made as trough approaches from west.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: New Vortex report [Re: Joe]
      #17363 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:56 AM

URNT12 KNHC 020510
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/0510Z
B. 31 DEG 22 MIN N
79 DEG 27 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1470 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 139 DEG 40 KT
G. 029 DEG 44 NM
H. 1005 MB 1005 MB
I. 19 C/ 1562 M
J. 20 C/ 1567 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/8
O. 0.1/ 15 NM
P. AF861 0501A ALEX OB 19
MAX FL WIND 40 KT NE QUAD 0457Z. MAX FLT TEMP 20C 022/33NM FROM
FL CNTR


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James88
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Re: New Vortex report [Re: danielw]
      #17364 - Mon Aug 02 2004 06:57 AM

Well, Alex now has a T-number of 3.0 - so perhaps it will be bumped up to 45 kts at the next advisory. Also, 91L now has a T-number of 1.5.

Edited by James88 (Mon Aug 02 2004 06:58 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re:07Z Update [Re: James88]
      #17365 - Mon Aug 02 2004 07:22 AM

Alex's outflow to the N and NE seems to be getting better organized. WV loop indicates it may be pushing against the dry air slot on the N side.
Wave 91L-Thunderstorms have a cobblestone appearance on the periphery of the circ. Almost fully wrapped by these thunderstorms. There appears to be a LLCC, with thunderstorms rotating around it. The northern half of the circ. is complete with convection. West through S through E hasn't completed the circle, if you will. Rough approximation of movement is 1 degree W in 3 hours or about 20 mph.

Interesting note-GFS model is showing another tropical system nearing the SC and NC coast in about 12-14 days. Looks like a bad year for the East Coast.
AGXX40 KNHC 020642
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 42W/43W WITH
ASSOCIATED 1012 MB SFC LOW NEAR 11N43W MOVING W 20 KT.
GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR
THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED STRUCTURE TO THIS
SYSTEM. WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC OVERNIGHT
TUE/WED AND ALONG 58W EARLY WED.


Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 02 2004 08:13 AM)


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James88
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Still 35 knots [Re: danielw]
      #17366 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:42 AM

Once again, Alex is a minimal tropical storm. It is still forecast to reach 50 kts though. Here's the discussion -

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 7




Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 02, 2004



on the last recon fix at 0510 UTC...the pressure was down to 1005 mb
but the highest flight-level...850 mb...winds were 46 kt over the
southwest quadrant. Taking the Standard reduction from this level
to the surface still gives 35 kt for the current intensity.
Subsequent surface observations from data buoys suggest that the
central pressure may have dropped a little more. WSR-88D Doppler
radar data suggest that the storm has become a little better
organized but the center is still just to the north of the area of
most intense convection. We are waiting for the next aircraft
mission to see if the winds have increased. Numerical guidance such
as the GFS suggest that the northeasterly shear over the system
should be ending...and that there is about a 24 hour window before
increasing westerly shear affects the tropical cyclone. Therefore
the official forecast shows strengthening up to 24 hours...and the
forecast wind speeds are just slightly higher than the latest SHIPS
guidance.

Recon...satellite...and surface data suggest little motion. Alex is
still embedded within a weakness in the subtropical ridge so the
steering flow is weak to non-existent. However....an approaching
trough in the westerlies is soon expected to provide an increasing
southwesterly steering current...which should accelerate Alex
northeastward. Even though the official track forecast...like the
previous one...keeps the storm offshore the proximity to the coast
dictates that the tropical storm warnings and watches be maintained.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/0900z 31.4n 79.5w 35 kt
12hr VT 02/1800z 32.2n 79.0w 40 kt
24hr VT 03/0600z 33.4n 77.3w 50 kt
36hr VT 03/1800z 35.3n 74.3w 50 kt
48hr VT 04/0600z 37.5n 70.5w 50 kt
72hr VT 05/0600z 43.0n 59.0w 45 kt...becoming extratropical
96hr VT 06/0600z 49.0n 44.0w 45 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 07/0600z...absorbed

$$

Alex does look better organised, and seems to be spreading out a little over Florida. I was expecting at least an extra 5 knots with this advisory. Oh well. We'll just have to wait for the next recon to see what the situation is.

Edited by James88 (Mon Aug 02 2004 08:50 AM)


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Rich B
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Re: Still 35 knots [Re: James88]
      #17367 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:58 AM

Agree James, the circulation does seem to have expanded towards the west, and is now affecting both parts of Florida and Georgia. With the pressure now down to 1004 mb, it normally follows that the winds will increase, so expect to see a stronger storm possibly at the 12Z advisory if not at the 15z advisory. Based on the improving organisation, Alex seems to be taking benefit of the improving upper-level conditions too. I think recon will find a stronger storm when they go in this morning.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Edited by Rich B (Mon Aug 02 2004 09:00 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Still 35 knots [Re: James88]
      #17368 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:05 AM

We've got about 2 hrs before the plane departs, looks like it's scheduled to be in Alex at 12Z. I'll be surprised if they find much change on the first leg. The sunrise should boost it up a bit again.
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0601A CYCLONE
C. 02/0845Z
D. 34.7.0N 77.8W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L [Re: danielw]
      #17369 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:30 AM

ABNT20 KNHC 020853
530 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L [Re: danielw]
      #17370 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:36 AM

What a differance a 6 hours makes!
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/0545 UTC 11.0N 43.5W T1.5/1.5 91
02/0545 UTC 32.0N 79.6W T3.0/3.0 ALEX
01/2345 UTC 32.0N 79.0W T2.0/2.0 ALEX
01/2345 UTC 10.3N 40.6W TOO WEAK 91
01/1745 UTC 10.1N 39.2W TOO WEAK 91


Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 02 2004 09:38 AM)


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