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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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javlin
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17798 - Thu Aug 05 2004 04:24 AM

Love the response there HF someone got to stir the pot(me).I am not making that much of a reference or am I ?Well just wanted to point out stranger things have happened.Not that it will by no means just keep one eye open.Till the wave goes away or it slams into the dirt keep one eye open . See you guys tomorrow time to get back to that Scotch.:-)

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17799 - Thu Aug 05 2004 04:32 AM

Here's a link for you to determine the quick intensification of Hurricane Camille.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1969/camille/prelim05.gif

These ESSA 9 satellite pic shows Camille's development over a 5 day period. They are rather low resolution and only the date is shown. I've read some archives somewhere that there was indeed a cold/ cool front moving into MS/ LA from the NW, and it gave the forecasters a bit of a problem.
Some of the forecasters that followed Camille:
Tropical Storm Camille advisory #1 was signed by "Simpson", of the Saffer-Simpson scale.
Advisory #4- signed by Neil Frank- now a Houston Met.
And Advisory#6- signed by the late, great John Hope-WxChan


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: What's up with the forecast? [Re: danielw]
      #17800 - Thu Aug 05 2004 05:40 AM

WHXX01 KWBC 050212
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (AL022004) ON 20040805 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040805 0000 040805 1200 040806 0000 040806 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 65.0W 14.5N 67.5W 15.4N 69.6W 16.3N 71.5W
BAMM 13.6N 65.0W 14.5N 68.3W 15.5N 71.1W 16.4N 73.6W
A98E 13.6N 65.0W 14.1N 67.8W 14.9N 70.4W 15.8N 72.5W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040807 0000 040808 0000 040809 0000 040810 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.9N 73.3W 18.2N 78.1W 19.5N 83.8W 20.2N 89.7W
BAMM 17.5N 75.6W 19.9N 79.1W 22.4N 82.7W 24.2N 85.4W
A98E 16.6N 74.4W 18.8N 78.1W 21.3N 81.8W 24.2N 85.4W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 61.6W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 57.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0408050216


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javlin
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Re: TD#2 and look to the GOM [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17801 - Thu Aug 05 2004 05:42 AM

I looked at it to HF this system put the skids on.I would normally think change in movement is about to occur.Dam never seen one stop that quick.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: XTD2-old model fcst [Re: javlin]
      #17802 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:33 AM

If you look a few posts back I listed the 00Z model plots for XTD2.
I used A98E points for the track, endpoint was A98E and BAMM, as the fcst had them at the same endpoint, at 8/10 00Z.
From present position, to over Kingston, Jamaica-08/08 00Z; then over the Isle of Youth, Cuba-08/09 06Z; then to a point due west of Key West/ mid Yucatan Channel.
This point is exactly 1.1deg east of where Camille was plotted on 8/16/1969 at 18Z.
Let's just hope the rest of the similarities Do Not present themselves.
http://environmentalphilosophy.org/homepages/roger_pielke/camille/figures/fig1b.gif

The 8/10/04 1000Z endpoint is 400 miles SE of the Mouth of the MS River

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 05 2004 08:36 AM)


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James88
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Still a CAT 3 [Re: danielw]
      #17803 - Thu Aug 05 2004 09:01 AM

Alex remains a 120mph hurricane for the second advisory in a row. It still boasts a very well defined eye that is embedded in cold cloud tops. In fact, the clouds have cooled somewhat over the past few hours. A very interesting (and record breaking) hurricane to kick off the season.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: XTD2-demise [Re: danielw]
      #17804 - Thu Aug 05 2004 09:35 AM

A small low level circulation and some sporadic convection is all that appears to be left of XTD2. There are some low clouds visible on IR and WV imagery, but the intrusion of the trough? into the apex of the leading edge, quickly killed the earlier round, full shape of TD2. The ridge to the north appears to have broken down also.
0934Z


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h2ocean
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Re: XTD2-demise [Re: danielw]
      #17805 - Thu Aug 05 2004 11:22 AM

Bastardi is still concerned it may redevelop and several of the models redevelop it...but who knows with this one!

Interesting excerpt from the Melbourne NWS this morning...

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE WKND IS THE REMAIN OF TD 2 WHICH 00Z GFS
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH ACROSS CUBA AND CLOSE TO THE AREA LATE SUN
NGT AND MONDAY PASSING BY JUST TO OUR EAST. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST
GFS RUN THAT HAS FORECAST THIS SOLUTION HAVE TRENDED FORECAST POPS
AND CLOUDINESS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK AND KEPT
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY IN THE SCATTERED RANGE.

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Steve hirsch.
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Re: XTD2-demise [Re: h2ocean]
      #17806 - Thu Aug 05 2004 11:44 AM

hhhmmmm. Need the shear to abate some....and it should after 24 hours. Waiting in Palm Bay! Umm, yes a couple of the globals show this in various forms. Most notably the GFS, but also the NOGAPS and the UK. Cheers!! PS: So we may not be done with TD #2 (former) to come back to life. In that scenario, it would have to come north with the return flow of the washed out front over Okeechobee!

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Anonymous
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Re: XTD2-demise [Re: Steve hirsch.]
      #17807 - Thu Aug 05 2004 01:34 PM

XTD2 is in the same kind of wind flow that killed off 97L for the final time that evening. I do not think regeneration is likely.

Alex became a Cat III last night, and still is. This, I am sure, caught everyone off guard. When this formed, I'm sure everyone would have laughed if anyone posted that Alex would eventually become a hurricane, especially a major hurricane

92L is getting better organized and is in much more favorable winds than former TD was, and 92L may become TD3 within 24 hours.


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andy1tom
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Re: XTD2-demise [Re: Anonymous]
      #17808 - Thu Aug 05 2004 01:36 PM

looks like they are covering all the bases just in case

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.


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Rabbit
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Re: XTD2-demise [Re: andy1tom]
      #17809 - Thu Aug 05 2004 01:45 PM

they are still not going to find an LLC

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rickonboat
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Re: XTD2-demise [Re: Rabbit]
      #17810 - Thu Aug 05 2004 01:55 PM

Climatalogically speaking, if a wave were to survive the graveyard in the Carribean, and somehow manage to get in the GOM, then we all know the HOT month of August is priime time for rapid intensification. It may be an anomaly if TD#2 survives, nevertheless, a real possibility, which in and of itself renders a rare strong hurricane to develop. My inward thoughts, anyway...

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andy1tom
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Re: XTD2-demise [Re: Rabbit]
      #17811 - Thu Aug 05 2004 01:59 PM

they probably won't this afternoon but if it stays going and doesn't fall apart?. i think that the unpredicatable alex may have pushed the buttons on the NHC..and they are not falling for it the second time.

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ErinAndOpal95
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Not Gone, but coming back? [Re: andy1tom]
      #17812 - Thu Aug 05 2004 02:44 PM

TD#2 looks pretty impressive to me. Check out the IR south of Hait/Dominican Republic.

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Rabbit
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Re: Not Gone, but coming back? [Re: ErinAndOpal95]
      #17813 - Thu Aug 05 2004 02:49 PM

Alex still at 120mph

as for the former depression, if you look at the visible image, you will likely not be able to find any rotation (I'm still hoping I was wrong on this one though)

Alex



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Steve
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Re: Not Gone, but coming back? [Re: ErinAndOpal95]
      #17814 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:00 PM

I had some thoughts on XTD2 when I first looked at it this morning. It reminded me a bit of 90L which I think was the wave that slowed down, split, helped spawn the rogue storm off the east coast and then continued on across the southern Gulf into Mexico. The difference was that the trof split was already in front of this particular system instead of meeting it halfway. Hostile conditions await, but if it can bust that trof split, the southern axis of the wave may well get a chance to crank near where >I< have it progged in Hank Frank's contest. What we're seeing today appears to be divergence based on the wave interacting with the eastern boundary of the trof. We're also seeing the wave split with some of the energy heading off NW while the southern energy progresses westward (albeit at its slowest rate so far). I think the Eastern Gulf may have to watch this one, and I'm sure all you guys down there will keep your eyes on it for the next several days.

Went and read Bastardi to get his comments while composing this post. He offered a couple of interesting ideas concerning implications for Alex and Europe (based on warm water - heh, where have we heard that before???). He also thinks that if anything is in the NW Caribbean by Sunday, it's going to have to be watched. Doesn't like GFS's SE FL scenario, notes ECMWF is farther west and UKMET allows for even a more westerly drift. Basically with all the amplitude in the westerlies, the map should be ripe to conjur up some action. We'll see.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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James88
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Re: Not Gone, but coming back? [Re: Steve]
      #17815 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:14 PM

Needless to say, any wave that makes it into the Gulf intact needs to be very closely monitored.

BTW, anyone noticed that a couple of models - BAMM and BAMD - take Alex and recurve him south back into warmer waters. An unlikely situation perhaps, but wouldn't it be the icing on the cake if Alex once again surprised everyone and did something completely unexpected (again).


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Rabbit
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Re: Not Gone, but coming back? [Re: James88]
      #17816 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:22 PM

interesting to think that the 120 mph hurricane we have now was forecast only to 45 mph, and at the beginning, looked like it may not even reach storm strenght

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Rabbit
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Re: Not Gone, but coming back? [Re: Rabbit]
      #17817 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:25 PM

note: I've added two sections to the forecast:
a "so far" as someone else has (I think Phil)
I've also added a "depression" forecast, so #/#/#/#=TD/TS/H/MH


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