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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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ErinAndOpal95
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Pensacola, Florida
Re: Not Gone, but coming back? [Re: Rabbit]
      #17818 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:26 PM

Check out this visible of TD#2. Nice and round with deep cloud convection. It will likely be ripped apart by the front, i guess. or not?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_91L.INVEST_ssmi_vis1km_full.html


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Not Gone, but coming back? [Re: ErinAndOpal95]
      #17819 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:31 PM

16N South of Dominican Republic
could that be the beginnings of an LLC??

also, 92L on TWO:

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


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ErinAndOpal95
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Not Gone, but coming back? [Re: Rabbit]
      #17820 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:42 PM

"16N South of Dominican Republic
could that be the beginnings of an LLC?? "

There does appear to be some spin just off the NW edge of the mass of clouds for TD#2 at 16N.


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
91L &92L [Re: Rabbit]
      #17821 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:43 PM Attachment (211 downloads)

XTD2 (91L) still up on the NRL site, so they must feel there is something worth watching. Somewhat tongue in cheek, I took HF's challenge (see storm forum) for TD2, and offered a couple of options, the last of which I took, which was that TD2 would miss the trof and slide into the Gulf as a CAT V heading for rickonboat. Well, I really don't think that's going to happen (and I sure pray it doesn't), but that scenario could actually play out (getting into the GOM). Obviously it's still way to early to speculate on future Gulf activity, but, like Steve, I'm concerned about something getting going east of NO, anywhere from LA/MS border to the big bend.

92L seems to also have come back from the "dead". This is probably going to be TD3, maybe sometime within the next 24 hours. Haven't really done any research on it yet, so I'm just throwing the possibility out there (as others already have).

Today is a real watch and wait day. Stay tuned.

As for Alex, yes James, I did see the BAMs taking him back into the east Atl. Somehow, I do not believe that is climatologically possible, given that it would be an extratropical low and being carried with the steering currents, but that'd be something, huh? (click on the attachment at top of this post for the models)

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Aug 05 2004 03:45 PM)


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: 91L &92L [Re: LI Phil]
      #17822 - Thu Aug 05 2004 04:00 PM

No circulation on 91L unless it is under the deep convection (where it should be); does seem to be going more wnw to NW, it may clip Haiti on current course. Strong possibility of regeneration, depending to some degree on future course.

92L---it looks like a depression already, although small and lacking convection. If the environment will leave it alone, it will be upgraded to depression status at the earliest by 5pm, and latest tomorrow morning.

Alex being a major should amplify the ridge, 92L will likely go more west than previously predicted; 91L also.

Alex turn southward?...it has happened before!! Especially if the ridge amplifies (it is on top of the ridge, remember!)

sc

Watch the Gulf this weekend too..


ps---El Nino is on the way back...see these links:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anom.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html

What will this do to this season?...hmm...possible truncate it...but, El Nino years where it develops late or partially, sometimes produce strong bursts of activity in Aug and September, but after that it trails off quickly. So---we have 1.5 good months for sure it seems.....

Could be quiet in October and Nov due to this.....may also account for the 'struggling nature' of storms we have seen so far---however, they can overcome the struggle ala Alex--especially at higher latitudes. New England and Maritimes--watch out!


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Possible Rotation [Re: MikeC]
      #17823 - Thu Aug 05 2004 04:34 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

Possible Circulation???

How bout that ALEX !!!! WOW what a sleeper. We weren't sure if it was going to be a Hurricane, now look at it.
Steeming off at 35mph still touting winds sustained at just about 120mph.
"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS."

Just incredible...


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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered




Re: Possible Rotation [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #17824 - Thu Aug 05 2004 04:53 PM

Too hard to tell under that cloud of divergence. If you look at the Dvorak loop, appears shear is shooting a firehose at the wave from the west. Allso NE'erly shear at 45 degrees to the west shear across Cuba. If this disturbance wants to re-generate, it needs to gain some latitude (Jamaica). Shear is SUPPOSED to decrease during the next day or so. 12Z GFDL sparks it up again and moves it further west, but still hooks it out to sea (bad solution). We wait and watch. Cheers.

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bobbi
Unregistered




Surprises in the basin [Re: Steve hirsch.]
      #17825 - Thu Aug 05 2004 05:16 PM

HI.

Well, well..how many of us were caught off guard by recent developments? Did anyone here ever imagine seeing Alex explode and strengthen into such a beautiful intense mesmerizing storm? Blew me away. Blows me away?

Shows you how you can never be sure of anything, especially in the tropics.

Saw him yesterday when that stadium effect was starting and thought to myself quietly.. very quietly (in awe) he's going to hit Cat 3. A major. First storm of the year... heads over land and becomes a major moving towards a low hit on Europe. Stunning.

As for TD2..Bonnie girl wanna be... giving her enough rope to play a bit and see where she will go. How things play out. For once not predicting or wishing or figuring or anything, just let the girl play.. see what she can or can't do. That is the song right? Girls just want to have funnnn...Well, seems the wave that was formerly known as the B storm that might become the B storm is playing around, doing her thing and all we can do is watch and wait to see if she has a date with a real name.

Great posts.. took a break a bit and catching up and smiling.

Who knew? Major Cane indeed.

ps... what did Rabbi predict from Alex? Don't want to go back into all those posts but curious.

Bobbi
ps...agree quietly on el nino tho think he will wait to hit his peak around Christmas Time, decorate the whole Ocean in his favorite color as El Nino should officially do. Maybe no big November storms but what an August surprise.. better than July.


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Loc: Central Florida
Re: Surprises in the basin [Re: bobbi]
      #17826 - Thu Aug 05 2004 05:31 PM

"Rabbit" not "Rabbi"

I forcasted Alex would reach hurricane, but not much farther. There was speculation from several people (including myself) as to whether or not it would reach major hurricane.

as for the former depression, I still dont think it will regenerate before reaching the western Caribbean


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javlin
Weather Master


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Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Surprises in the basin [Re: Rabbit]
      #17827 - Thu Aug 05 2004 06:23 PM

I do not no the site for the T# but was over at S2K it was brought up that both 91L and 92L are at 1.5/1.5.Can anyone year verifiy that.

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James88
Weather Master


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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
T-numbers up [Re: Rabbit]
      #17829 - Thu Aug 05 2004 06:24 PM

The T-numbers for 92L and XTD #2 are up to 1.5/1.5. Perhaps this shows a little potential for development.

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javlin
Weather Master


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Re: T-numbers up [Re: James88]
      #17830 - Thu Aug 05 2004 06:28 PM

James what is the site?

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Surprises in the basin [Re: javlin]
      #17831 - Thu Aug 05 2004 06:37 PM

they are listed here. don't know how up to date though, always have a hard converting times
also noticed that we have 47 users.. things are heatin up

#'s

Edited by andy1tom (Thu Aug 05 2004 06:41 PM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
its over in the caribbean [Re: javlin]
      #17832 - Thu Aug 05 2004 06:42 PM

91L is showing outflow boundaries
in respect to tropical systems, this means the air is flowing outward, not inward, indicating that there will be no development. I expect the convection to die down again tonight, and flare back up tomorrow with the afternoon heating and upper air divergence.
91L

as for 92L, which has a well-defined rotation and LLC, it may be upgraded at 5pm.

92L

Alex


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javlin
Weather Master


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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Surprises in the basin [Re: andy1tom]
      #17833 - Thu Aug 05 2004 06:46 PM

Thanks Andy appreciate it.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Surprises in the basin [Re: javlin]
      #17834 - Thu Aug 05 2004 06:53 PM

Javlin here is another good site to see what is going on in the carb.. it loads slow but is worth the wait. current weather

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bobbi
Unregistered




giggling, rofl.. sorry rabbiT [Re: Rabbit]
      #17835 - Thu Aug 05 2004 06:54 PM

i seem to have a really BIG problem lately with the T thing

first was outter and now its dropping them

where is my mind, giggling

sorry

great comment on outflow and inflow boundaries, never heard that put so well btw.. will always remember it

rabbit
rabbit
really i knew that

fingers were tired.. at work..


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bobbi
Unregistered




ps..question regarding outflow boundaries and inflow [Re: bobbi]
      #17836 - Thu Aug 05 2004 06:57 PM

Can someone explain the difference between when wxr ppl say "good inflow" and or "good outflow" and outflow boundaries that aren't good, please

thanks


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Loc: Central Florida
Re: ps..question regarding outflow boundaries and inflow [Re: bobbi]
      #17837 - Thu Aug 05 2004 06:59 PM

good inflow=low level convergence and circulation
good outflow=upper level divergence
outflow boundary=cool dry air racing away from collapsing thunderstorms


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javlin
Weather Master


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Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Surprises in the basin [Re: andy1tom]
      #17838 - Thu Aug 05 2004 07:05 PM

Yea i had that one Andy decided to go look at it.Aruba is the only location with any pressure falls down to 1008.The system is really quite remove Aruba don't know why that may be.I went and looked at WV loop of the Atl. then I saw why that maybe.

Edited by javlin (Thu Aug 05 2004 07:15 PM)


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