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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | >> (show all)
BugsBunny
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
Re: 91L [Re: Unregistered User]
      #17866 - Thu Aug 05 2004 09:27 PM

little note here: I forgot the "Rabbit" password, so I will be logged in as "BugsBunny" for the time being

--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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LI Phil
User


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Done [Re: BugsBunny]
      #17867 - Thu Aug 05 2004 09:53 PM

>>> over and done with as far as i am concerned

I've learned my lesson, when Bugs says it's over, it's over.

Watching 92L now.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 91L [Re: Rabbit]
      #17868 - Thu Aug 05 2004 10:16 PM

Quote:

over and done with as far as i am concerned

dissipating





Silly rabbit

If it survives thru Friday,I believe a strong tropical system,or maybe even a cat 1 Hurricane will be in the GOM this weekend.


Alabama/MIss could be in for a very wet beginning of next week.

Of course I have no explanation for this,just a gut feeling.


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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 42
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92L [Re: Anonymous]
      #17869 - Thu Aug 05 2004 10:26 PM

from the 5 pm TWO:
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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ClarkE
Unregistered




Re: the unclassified [Re: Rabbit]
      #17870 - Thu Aug 05 2004 10:39 PM

Rabbit, there's nothing in any of those images to suggest that anyhting out there was tropical, yet alone subtropical. Everything there was either a convection-less swirl or a midlatitude baroclinic system. None of the other available tools - such as the cyclone phase analysis tool - suggest anything tropical, either.

This is the start to the season we're looking at now; no sense in trying to go back and say that it might've happened earlier, because it really didn't.


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: 91L [Re: Anonymous]
      #17871 - Thu Aug 05 2004 10:57 PM

Quote:

Quote:

over and done with as far as i am concerned

dissipating




If that turns into a cat 1 i will have rabbit stew for dinner.


Silly rabbit

If it survives thru Friday,I believe a strong tropical system,or maybe even a cat 1 Hurricane will be in the GOM this weekend.


Alabama/MIss could be in for a very wet beginning of next week.

Of course I have no explanation for this,just a gut feeling.




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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Re: 91L [Re: BugsBunny]
      #17873 - Thu Aug 05 2004 11:22 PM

Hey Bugs,
Wu wascally wabbit. It ain't over til it's over. And past 32 deg N latitude, at any longitude!
Here are a couple of links for further analysis on 91L and 92L.
the unnamed IR and WV on the right side of the page will give you some interesting enhanced imagery from LSU.
http://antares.csi.lsu.edu/index.html




Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 05 2004 11:25 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Another area to watch? [Re: danielw]
      #17874 - Thu Aug 05 2004 11:36 PM

Watch the huge complex of storms that is making its way towards the bath tub hot Gulf from Louisiana and Mississippi.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L [Re: danielw]
      #17876 - Fri Aug 06 2004 12:11 AM

I thought Hispanola was supposed to be a death trap for tropical systems. Check out you favorite IR loop. Maybe that's only if they have good forward motion. Appears the circ. center has moved just north of the westerly shear line.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 91L [Re: danielw]
      #17877 - Fri Aug 06 2004 12:20 AM

The pressure is avg on island of Hispanola, I don't see anything except blowing off of thunder storm cloud tops do to wind shear right now
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDSD.html


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HanKFranK
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responses [Re: danielw]
      #17878 - Fri Aug 06 2004 12:27 AM

rabbit is not the most qualified among us to declare things over. he may be right after all... but i haven't heard the stuttering pig just yet. 91L/td2 does look like caca, outflow boundaries and such properly noted, but it is also refiring a good bit and sliding into the right part of the TUTT (southern extent of which is going to split anyway W) and into a region below a shortwave that should split overhead.. there is plenty of opportunity for upper air evacuation. the evidence of a very sharp wave is vaguer than yesterday (thanks a lot upper SWerlies), as the system is also entering an area of mid-level diffluence (precipice of the atlantic ridge which will be flattened out to the north). the profile of the entire disturbance is yet confused, and i'm not sure which part will continue onward. it hasn't worked yet, but now i'm reckoning the system will try to reorganize in this area of weaker steering and diverging upper air flow near jamaica over the next day or two. if it gets further west without development it's opportunities are more limited, and some of the wave energy will get into the gulf where a log jam related to what the big shortwave leaves will be loitering. the chance of development continues, thus the NHC outlook comments and continuing interest, but it hasn't shown a great deal of initiative thus far.
anyway, 40% on it redeveloping tomorrow near 17/72--either out with the shortwave quick or hang on it's belly like a remora until reaching it's desired release point and coming to annoy us. 40% on it ambling wnw, maintaining and remaining a development threat out to 72 hours, closer to the gulf. 20% that rabbit's incessant declaration that it is dying dead or never was will win the day.
the varmint has been restating the old discussion about early-season stuff as well.. i'd still give props to a transient tropical storm in late may and a depression of likewise nature in late july off the northeast (after all, alex seemed to have done alright out there). i won't go as far as the varmint, or as far as clarkE on the issue... minding that clarkE keeps quiet on most things and only says stuff that is well qualified or important.
glad i gave some props to 92L last night, cause it is looking like it will be doing some developing. i'm expecting it to struggle up to a weak tropical cyclone status (depression or just above) and work westward to wnw over the next 48 hours or so. maybe late in the weekend it will start really developing... somewhere near the islands. there should be solid mid-level ridging keeping it on a mostly westward track, but hard to say much beyond that. shear is a variable that could keep it from developing or keep it slow-growing.. but you know which side of the issue i'm on.
new wave coming off, with weaker-than-earlier (of course) model support but presumably fair chances of doing something if that low develops just off the ITCZ in the next couple of days. keep-in-mind, nothing more as of now.
alex departing after a thankfully mostly offshore performance.
heard the el nino chorus earlier today, will add my voice: *WHAT STEVE SAYS*.
i'm going to ride TD2/91L until there's absolutely no chance left.. come crow what may. 92L i like and am fairly confident on. how quickly the sharp trough descending into the east hands control back to the ridge will be a very telling thing to watch.. the chance exists for it to be one of those late-summer/falls where the east coast is in a perpetual trough and activity stays out where we can watch it from a safe distance. i'm head-scratching over that one.
HF 0027z06august


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BillD
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Re: 91L [Re: Anonymous]
      #17879 - Fri Aug 06 2004 12:32 AM

This is not a dramatic change, but it is a pressure drop:

MDPP obs

Looking at the bigger picture, this is more than a blob of thunderstorms. Whether it will do anything after it moves off of Hispanola overnight is a big question at this point. I think it will, and I can't believe that Phil gave in to Rabbit already!

Bill


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LI Phil
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Re: 91L [Re: BillD]
      #17880 - Fri Aug 06 2004 12:40 AM

Great post HF (have I ever told you that before?)

>>> I can't believe that Phil gave in to Rabbit already!

Heh.

No, that was a bit of reverse psychology. The varmint's made me to look the fool twice now, so I figure if I agree with him (I'll be wrong -- but so will he). I like his idea of adding the season to date numbers under his prediction...never would have thought of that.

It's still duck season...and they're sittin' on the pond...91L will rise from the ashes, get it's bad self in the GOM and head straight for rick as a...

I'm with HF here, I think Bonnie's coming out of XTD2/91L, although 92L could push that back to Chuck.

Like I said in the morning, today is a wait and see day. Tomorrow will tell some tales.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 91L [Re: BillD]
      #17881 - Fri Aug 06 2004 12:53 AM

Sure you have a pressure drop , but just look at FT Myers same pressure reading, to me that is avg within a thunder storm area.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L [Re: Anonymous]
      #17882 - Fri Aug 06 2004 01:08 AM

Here's the link for the sat shot. the lower clouds (blue) are expanding westward. the lowest clouds (greywhite) are also expanding slowly west.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Use the animation button, and click on Hispanola.

note:0150Z tropical update from TWC. Jim Cantore says the roll type cloud out west of Hispanola is usually "the kiss of death" for these systems. Ok Rabbit!

Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 06 2004 01:59 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Administrative Post - Clarifications [Re: MikeC]
      #17883 - Fri Aug 06 2004 02:26 AM

Just some guidance.
1. For what must be at least the third time, Main Page responses on MJO, El Nino, etc., are perfectly fine since they normally are associated with current activity, a lack of current activity, or an anticipated activity. I've made them myself, e.g., from July 19th:

"Regarding El Nino having an impact on this season...well, not very likely. We may eventually get to a weak El Nino state, but it will not happen until the season is over - perhaps in the December-January timeframe - and thats not certain either. The ENSO pattern so far this year is pretty close to the patterns that were observed in 1953 and 1990 - and to a lesser extent to 1969 (1969 was a tad warmer). The oceans are very conservative, i.e., it takes a long time for change to take place. Its probably smarter to look at month to month (or even season to season) changes in SSTs rather than week to week changes when you are trying to determine a trend."

2. The word 'never' is a dangerous word in the Weather business, especially when 'never' becomes 'oops'.

3. Don't make a post with only a statement saying that something will or will not happen without explaining 'why'. They are posts that are nothing more than useless clutter and are often made with the intent of prodding someone else into making an angry response. If I post a statement that Invest 92L will become a TD in two days and will rapidly intensify to hurricane status in four days...and never say anything else, i.e., what prompted me to feel that way, you would be all over my case. HankFrank and I don't care too much for these types of posts, especially those that are intended to aggrevate, so please don't make them. Their survival rate on the Board could become shorter than TD2.

4. There were some good meteorological posts today. There were also some bad meteorological posts today - sometimes by the same individual?!? Thanks for the good ones!

5. Remember that conflicting opinions are often the source for great dialogue. These conflicts are fine as long as you can keep an open mind and respect the other persons point of view - even when you disagree with it.

Cheers,
ED


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javlin
Weather Master


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Re: 91L [Re: danielw]
      #17884 - Fri Aug 06 2004 02:46 AM

I see what he means on the WV loop it's huge looks like a large ULL ready to eat.Seeya

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1236
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thoughts for the day [Re: javlin]
      #17889 - Fri Aug 06 2004 03:16 AM

Had a really long day and company from out of town, a birthday for one of the kids.. it was nice to relax at the end of the day and read through the posts like some round the campfire tropical talk. Great posts. Funny and many accurate thougths.

As for Rabbit. Well.. ok so Phil was playing possum. Thought he gave up. As for being burned twice..well think thats in the eye of the person holding the hot potato. Will see how it all plays out.

You're all funny, smart and fun to read.

As for TD2.. think it followed that trick of the other wave that morphed its way across Haiti... trick of the season, pull that rabbit out of the hat again.

We have so much moisture hanging around Miami .. water logged for sure.

Take care and remember...follow the rules!
Bobbi
like a girl scout...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: 91L [Re: LI Phil]
      #17890 - Fri Aug 06 2004 03:37 AM


ill say a prayer at bedtime for your girl to show what shes got. so far..she looks exhausted..but those are high mtns in Haiti..

just think..she made the turn afterall lol
models were right about something

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 06 2004 10:29 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Carib. Update [Re: LoisCane]
      #17891 - Fri Aug 06 2004 05:52 AM

FZNT25 KNHC 060302
OFFN04
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2004

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC
FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W IS MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE
COULD DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR
76W FRI AFTERNOON...NEAR 78W FRI NIGHT...80W SAT...84W
SUN...AND W OF AREA MON. A NEW WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT AND NEAR THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND
TUE.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 06 AUG 2004NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE...
BUT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA AND EASTERN
JAMAICA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
IF NECESSARY.

THE 1013 MB LOW NEAR 17.5N 43.5W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NOW IS
A CANDIDATE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS LOW CENTER IS PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
43W/44W SOUTH OF 25N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AN HALF-CIRCLE SHAPE...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
30W AND 35W. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AREA SOUTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W HAS DRY AIR.


Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 06 2004 06:21 AM)


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