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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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IWIC 5:00 Forecast [Re: Unregistered User]
      #17962 - Fri Aug 06 2004 09:32 PM

Here's Rob & Jason's forecast:

IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 06 August 2004 - 5:00 PM EDT

The remnant of Tropical Depression 2 has shown no signs of change within the past 36 hours. Upper level 30-35 knot southwest winds are blowing over the system, which is preventing organization. An upper level low to the west of the tropical wave is slowly retrogading southwest, and this will allow for upper level winds to become marginally favorable for slow organization over the next few days. A TPC reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area of disturbed weather tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.

Both the global model consensus and the tropical model suite are contuining to indicate a more westward track. The overall consensus is for the wave to push west-northwest, over the Yucatan peninsula within 48-72 hours, just prior to emerging into the central/western Gulf. This is in harmony with The ridging behind a cold front in the central/eastern United States. The low level steering flow in the Gulf and western Caribbean are being controlled by these elements. Over the next five days, the ridge will push eastward, and the cold front near the Texas coast will shift north as a warm front. Thefore, a southeast flow will likely be present once the wave enters the central Gulf. This could act as a steering mechanism and push the wave into either Texas or central/northern Mexico. But all residents along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of the feature, as it is still several days away from entering the region. Development, if any, is expected to be very slow to occur. Morever, even if development does not occur, heavy rains are possible depending on how much moisture is drawn northward.

Elsewhere, INVEST 92L is still being monitored for development in the central Atlantic. There are no signs of development at this time. Convection has been very sporadic and disorganized. The main culprit is southwest shear, and there are no signs of it retreating in the near future. No development is expected at this time.

Another tropical wave located near 35ºW, 10ºN has shown no signs of development. The quick forward motion of waves in the central and eastern Atlantic continue to be the main parameter that is inhibiting to development. The North Atlantic Oscillation will tank over the next couple weeks. As a result, the subtropical ridge will weaken....along with the low level steering flow. The UKMET does slowly strengthen the wave over the next 5 days but it is a model outlier at this time.

There are no other areas of interest at this time.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
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Re: Off east coast [Re: LI Phil]
      #17963 - Fri Aug 06 2004 09:48 PM

Look at this...there is a circulation clearly evident off the east coast in the IR shot...

NOW ,,,off for the weekend!

sc


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LoisCane
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Re: IWIC 5:00 Forecast [Re: LI Phil]
      #17965 - Fri Aug 06 2004 10:21 PM

ok.. have a nice weekend..
i have to tell you.. i just dont buy anything forming for a few days..

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

just dont.. dont see where it is calm enough for something to get going in the upper levels where you need the air to evacuate and twist and build even if a low level is able to form.. all levels have to work in tandem to get going

if this was a high seas report id say "choppy seas"

take care gang, will check back on sunday
of course, i could be wrong.. surprise me

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
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shorter/pointed [Re: LoisCane]
      #17966 - Fri Aug 06 2004 11:03 PM

got a date in a few so gotta make this short. easier said than done.
i'll preface my comments by saying that i went and made my observations, read through the main board posts, and realized that steve-o has already noticed most everything i did. a number of folks on the board today have been decrying shear and declaring that nothing can or will form. makes me wonder if anybody reads into the TWO.
first off 91L/td2. if you look at the forecast evolution for the upper air pattern nearby, you notice that it is forecast to be positioned in an outflow enhancing region after it negotiates the currently segmenting TUTT. steve has already explained the reasoning behind it's development potential.. and the NHC continues to keep recon on standby for a potential invest... obviously they see the potential as well. visibles today reveal that the lower level structure of the wave is still fairly sharp.. put this thing into a good environment and it has every chance of redeveloping.
similar comments for 92L. steve has already explained how the deep layer ridge should flatten and out and block its northward component.. if the low associated with the disturbance doesn't cross the axis prior to its reorientation. there is a small surface low embedded in the wave near 20/50, which is moving slowly nw in a sheared environment. much like 91L this system's nearby upper environment is currently unfavorable but forecast to become better over the weekend. and to be honest, it doesn't look much worse today. spotty convection and weak surface low.. essentially unchanged.
that low that was forecast by globals to form at low latitude along the wave trailing 92L does indeed appear to be forming. low latitude however, an elongated e-w. globals have backed off so until it gains some amplitude or independence from the ITCZ it poses little development threat.
ed d in va dropped the wakefield discussion and brought up a potential system down the road.. nontropical gulf origin. the low may be a result of some interaction with the former TD2/91L wave.. it may be reading an entrainment of some of tropical energy. not too believable evolution at this point.. will have to see how globals continue handling it.
waves are taking their sweet time, but they haven't gone away either. i'm still agitating for their potential because it is real.
HF 2300z06august


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Subtropical Low? [Re: summercyclone]
      #17967 - Sat Aug 07 2004 12:25 AM

Scroll past Blacksburg to Wakefield, where it's in the extended part.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Clarifying the Clarification [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17968 - Sat Aug 07 2004 12:41 AM

In spite of that nagging flashing envelope, I decided to change my routine tonight and make this post first - then catch up on the PMs.

I guess that I could have done a better job with my post yesterday evening, but Steve, LI Phil and Bobbi did pick up on my real intent. This Board is not for the pros, although I'm glad that a few of them pay this place a visit every now and then. This Board is not for the avid amateur either or even for the novice - I don't like to 'classify' people. The Board is for anyone (make that ANYONE) who is a tropical weather enthusiast.

Of course intuition may be all that you have to go on - although something intangible probably inspired that intuition. Sometimes thats all I have to go on - can't explain it, but its there. Intuition is fine, because sometimes thats all that there is.

The real purpose was to squelch the Anon poster that throws out a one-liner with the intent of stirring the pot. Awhile back there was an infamous User who would make a controversial post, log off, log back on as an Anonymous user and then post a direct attack against someone or even argue with his own previous post - and then log on again and watch the havoc evolve. A real basket case! To the rest of you, it seemed like two different users, but Administrators and Moderators can detect this type of activity. Yesterday I had some concerns regarding some of the Anon posts that had no purpose other than to incite controversy without explaination. There certainly is no place for that here.

Weather enthusiats seem to be a 'sensitive' bunch with a desire to make a good forecast (Steve nailed that one). Sorry that a few of you were upset - it was not intended and you were not the real targets of my message. When I first started to post - its been a few years now - I did not post too often because I did not want to influence what I felt was an excellent tropiical site - and I still feel that way. Every evening when I review your posts, I am flooded with memories - good memories - of a younger man in an earlier time (way before internet and computers) that was eager to consume any scrap of weather information from the radio (TV came later). Memories of waiting eagerly for the postman to deliver my daily weather map from the Weather Bureau in Washington, D.C. Well I guess that I've violated my own rules and this was a bit off topic, so I'll let the other Moderators clean it up if they wish to do so. No, this site is for you, not me, but I have many enjoyable reasons for being here - and I will not allow the malicious intent of a few oddballs to interfere with the good dialogue that exists on this site.

As LI Phil would say:
Peace,
ED

(P.S. Forgive me for this, but I am REALLY glad that Bobbi was feeling kindly today )


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Steve Hirscshb.
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Re: Clarifying the Clarification [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17969 - Sat Aug 07 2004 01:12 AM

Nice post Ed. We're here to have some fun and hopefully learn a few things. I learned lately that I can't spend as much time posting as I used to (family obligations ome first), so I rely a lot on the posters. That's why I also hate the trouble makers. Its just a waste of time when you have a topic get sidetracked. Hope you have a great weekend.....now back to painting

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LI Phil
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Thanks ED [Re: Steve Hirscshb.]
      #17970 - Sat Aug 07 2004 01:22 AM

Its Friday night, so I'll keep this brief:

I just got done PMing ed, and it's not about the reg's (HF, Steve, Bobbi, CatVRick, sc, et at. you know I'm forgetting 50 of you). If we can all agree to disagree...this will be really schweet.

Will speak of this more on the morrow. Don't be reticent in posting. It's more for those who "chuck & duck".

Bobbi, robert, catVrick...post away...keep it real, but go for it. Just don't cus or attack the varmint, and it's all good...

OK Who likes the weather? Huh? All of us! So bring on the weather!!!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: Thanks ED [Re: LI Phil]
      #17971 - Sat Aug 07 2004 02:12 AM

Just wanted everyone to know that formerly known as DustDuchess switched email providers. But some of you know me as Mary. I have been trying to keep up with the tropics but have been very busy. I see that everything weatherwise has calmed down and so the tempers flare. Just checking in.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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BillD
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Re: Thanks ED [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #17972 - Sat Aug 07 2004 02:41 AM

I thought I recognized the DustDuchess messages, but couldn't quite place why they sounded so familiar. Under whatever name you use, I have always enjoyed your posts and your level head when the rest of us get a little too excited.

And yes, we all get a little frustrated, and sometimes tempers flare, when we get all hyped up for something to happen and then it doesn't. Which is more often than not.

Bill


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Old Sailor
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Re: Dead Friday... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17973 - Sat Aug 07 2004 03:21 AM

XTD#2 is still moving west, not showing any signs of getting it's act together, soon it's going to run out of room appears to be headed for Yucatan , shear is going to weaken but then if it makes past the Caymen island no time left to be more then a TD before Yuctan.

Dave


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HanKFranK
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resurrection saturday? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #17974 - Sat Aug 07 2004 05:58 AM

at this late (early) hour, 92L's convection is bursting quite intensely. perhaps response to the lighter shear zone ahead, or maybe it just felt like blowing a good flash of convection. if it's still going tomorrow i'm going to be hollering depression, 'cause there's a decent surface low with this system that looks mighty fine on ir2 and visibles by daylight.
91L looking fairly unimpressive tonight, though developing ridging apparent over/behind the axis of advance of the system. latest TWO has reversed emphasis from my current ideas.. what sailor dave said about the future of 91L is essentially right. it has piddled around for days now and will run out of opportunities in a couple/few more days.
HF 0558z07august


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Old Sailor
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Re: resurrection saturday? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17975 - Sat Aug 07 2004 09:44 AM

Hank:
Old habits die hard up early plus having a bad thunder storm over head doesn't help, 92L's convection this morning has really flared up may see it updated at 10:30 EDT to TD, 91L still looks poorly this may flare from heat of the sun as of now, no signs of real life.

Dave


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cyclone_head
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Good weekend to do yardwork?? [Re: MikeC]
      #17976 - Sat Aug 07 2004 12:10 PM

Sat Morning Discussion:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT 07 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

..TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN A SWIRL OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 40W AND 46W...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 13N
BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W/52W SOUTH OF 25N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT.
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG WAVE NEAR 21N. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21.5N TO 24N
BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO...NOW IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
15 KT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 17N TO 21N
BETWEEN 74W AND 84W...MORE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REALLY
THAN WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W
ALONG THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTS...POSSIBLY RELATED TO
THIS WAVE...AND POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N25W 9N37W 10N50W 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 60W
AND 64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLC W OF 70W...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS A RARE EARLY AUGUST COLD
FRONT FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 31N72W TO THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 29N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO AN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 29N84W. THE FRONT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N93W. DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT 28N93W TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N99W. TROUGH RUNS
FROM LOW CENTER TO 27N90W AND 27N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 80W...IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 82W AND
87W...AND IN THE WESTERN GULF WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 25N91W 26N94W 28N96W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
ALREADY INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...ALONG 77W/78W...RUNNING
FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N THROUGH 32N. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS LEFT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH HAD BEEN
MOVING ACROSS MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...NOW IS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 18N106W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...SENDS WINDS FROM 350 MB AND HIGHER TOWARD
30N60W...AWAY FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TOWARD THE
GREATER ANTILLES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...WITH THE CURRENT UNITED STATES COLD
FRONT...PASSES OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES...STAYING BETWEEN 65W
AND 72W...REACHING NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/AREA OF ELONGATED CYCLONIC WIND FLOW RUNS FROM CUBA NEAR
21N79W TO EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W AND ACROSS
NICARAGUA TO 12N86W...FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD DURING
THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE IS FORMING OVER NW COLOMBIA AND
IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTHWARD TO WESTERN HAITI BEHIND THE
WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR IS FLOWING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...KEEPING A LID ON ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SUBTROPICS EAST OF 70W...
STRONG MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS IN POSITION FROM 23N59W TO THE
MONA PASSAGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SHEARING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
21N52W WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WITH SHEAR FORECAST TO
REMAIN HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 30W WITH
A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 22N AND A MID-UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N14W TO 29N26W. THIS TROUGH COULD HELP TO USHER IN A COLD
FRONT TO THE FAR NE ATLC LATE TOMORROW. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RELATIVELY DRY OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N63W 21N70W...ACROSS
CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH IN THE SUBTROPICS IS KEEPING EASTERLY FLOW S OF A
RIDGE AXIS FROM ABOUT BARBADOS TO 20N38W. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NEAR THE CAPE VERDES IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION. OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES N OF 15N E OF
40W. PRESSURES ARE HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH
A TRADEWIND SURGE NOTED N OF 14N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDES AND 43W.

$$
MT






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Go out ....do the yardwork..Looks like we are in for a few days wait for any significant developments.


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javlin
Weather Master


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Re: resurrection saturday? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #17977 - Sat Aug 07 2004 12:12 PM

Having a tough time even finding the wave axis at this point.

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Tropics Guy
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Re: EX TD2 & 92L [Re: javlin]
      #17978 - Sat Aug 07 2004 12:34 PM

Good morning yall,
Not looking good for ex TD2, most . if not all the convection is gone, will see if it blows up again from the heating of the day, seems like the environment is somewhat better as the shear is relaxing.
92L IMO won't be upgraded today because it's still in the shear zone which will preclude further development, even though the convection flareup is impressive. Tomorrow and Monday the shear is expected to relax, especially if it makes it past 60W, then we'll probably see it develop further.
Everywhere else it looks pretty quiet.
TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Storm Cooper
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Re: EX TD2 & 92L [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17979 - Sat Aug 07 2004 01:10 PM

Not good for TD Who at all. 92L may be the next but just for fun keep half an eye on the GOM for a little while.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: EX TD2 & 92L [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #17980 - Sat Aug 07 2004 01:40 PM

low developing about 150 miles from the Florida west coast.

--------------------
doug


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Storm Cooper
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Re: EX TD2 & 92L [Re: doug]
      #17981 - Sat Aug 07 2004 02:09 PM

You can make it out to the southwest of P'cola.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kevx.shtml

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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LI Phil
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Sattiday mornin' JB [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #17983 - Sat Aug 07 2004 03:33 PM

Nothing much on the horizon this weekend, tho ole Joe still won't give up on XTDII getting into the GOM next week. System near 10/40 may perk up once it gets 50 west early next week. But that's not what piqued my interest.

He stated this at the beginning of the season, but now it's playing out: the years of 1960 & 1985 are quite similar to 2004, as far as temp patterns-cold (versus average) in the middle of the nation, warm at the coasts. Anyone who knows hurricane history should get a tingling down the spine at the meniton of those years. Three retired names in those two years...nuff said.

Looks to be quite the quiet weekend...no worries.

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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