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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Did TD 2 survive "Graveyard"? [Re: James88]
      #18042 - Sun Aug 08 2004 07:33 AM

Inconclusive, but Cancun is showing a steady pressure fall over the last 4 hrs.
MMUN 080740Z 00000KT 7SM SCT250 24/24 A2991 RMK 8/008 SC
MMUN 080642Z 00000KT 7SM SCT250 25/24 A2992 RMK 8/008 SC
MMUN 080545Z 00000KT 7SM SCT250 26/24 A2993 RMK SLP138 57003 8/008 900 SC
MMUN 080445Z 12003KT 7SM SCT250 28/26 A2993 RMK 8/008
MMUN 080345Z 00000KT 7SM SCT250 28/25 A2995 RMK 8/008
MMUN 080245Z 12004KT 8SM SCT250 29/26 A2994 RMK SLP141 52013 8/008 900
While Havana,Cuba is showing a wind direction change from 050 to 120degrees over the last 5 hrs. Like I said it is inconclusive, but worth watching.
MUHA 080700Z 12006KT 6000 FEW020 25/21 Q1015
MUHA 080555Z 12004KT 6000 FEW020 25/21 Q1015
MUHA 080400Z 00000KT 6000 FEW020 SCT070 25/22 Q1015
MUHA 080253Z 05003KT 6000 FEW020 SCT070 26/22 Q1015

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 08 2004 07:58 AM)


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LadyStorm
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Re: Spin off of Cape Canaveral [Re: troy2]
      #18044 - Sun Aug 08 2004 09:47 AM

I noted a spin yesterday. Daytona received 7 inches of rain yesterday. I woke up this morning, with what sounds like a waterfall flowing over my house. Very heavy rain. I have been up an hour and its still going. We are currently under a flood watch. I may have to build an ark soon.


Quote:

melbourne radar seems to show a spin
loop it

earlier the intelecast summary showed the rotation...not as much now though




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thinking we were at when we created them"

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James88
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Re: Spin off of Cape Canaveral [Re: LadyStorm]
      #18045 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:28 AM

The remnants of TD #2 have still not been mentioned in the TWO. Maybe the NHC doesn't see much potential for development.

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LoisCane
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spins off the coast forming into storms [Re: LadyStorm]
      #18046 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:39 AM

Okay...1971
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1971/index.html

First storm formed roughly where this years storm did.
Whole discrepancy over a second storm I suppose...can someone explain that? Well of course someone can, lots of people here ...right?

Beth forms roughly this coming week back then... that would be if I can do the math right33 years ago. IF i did that right and its not 43. Not using paper here..using my pre-coffee brain.

As no one that year probably knew there was that hurricane#2 storm.. Beth would have been the second storm of a busy season that seemingly formed just off coast of Miami.

I believe it reall formed over the Westchester Parking Lot out around SW 87th Ave and Coral Way. An intersection made famous in Hurricane Irene where news crews set up to show "some local flooding." It poured and poured and poured. But of course it was sitting over Miami so no one could actually say a Tropical Depression was forming. Against the rules. Ed and Phil remembers rules. Everyone here remembers rules. The NHC always plays by the rules. Was a pretty rainy day as I can recall. Amazing Mr. Jr. Meteorology that I knew didn't mention it was forming but then he was busy I suppose. So... after being blindsided by the weekend from hell the system (probably an old frontal boundary ...who was paying attention then obviously) in Miami ..the system gets named a system off shore. Around Bimini.

So. you ask if a storm could form?

Yeah... it could. My first thought was no and then my second was yes because I remember seeing old Beth's track the other day when I was thinking how this season and that season had so much in common.

The tracks of the storms that formed after Beth.. in rapid succession are all tracks our former almost TDs had followed. So... in looking back I would say..

a) is a good analog
b) proves things form at the end of dangling fronts
c) what gos around comes around...karma
d) im getting coffee

Thank LadyStorm for pointing out the obvious. I used to go by that name once on another board. Did you know that? Hmmn guess not. Oh well.. I guess it was a good name .. imitation is the best form of flattery I've heard. As long as you don't have multiple personalities lol ...long story.

Will see.

Btw.. lightning doesn't strike in the same spot the same way twice but storms do form at the same lat many times.

And...Ed... yes I was in a good mood, I still am so let's forget about it

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LoisCane
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for james re: morning announcements [Re: James88]
      #18047 - Sun Aug 08 2004 10:48 AM

Maybe Avilla doesn't like remnants of TD2?
...

didnt see that Sir Cane was here as well as Lady Storm, oh wow.. are the bases loaded around here?

Looking at the maps this morning show me one thing.
My short term memory isn't THAT bad. Because everything that could possibly form looks like something we just tracked.

I see the remnants of TD 2 pulsing. IF they are still pulsing there probably IS something there. But, will it form?

This front.. gosh are we wet here. The ground is saturated. My grass is so high and it was just cut. Could see another Alex form. Once the front pulls out there won't be so much shear to deal with as in other areas.

92L has fired but then lots of things have fired there and then when PSHAST!! as soon as the shear hit.

Not jumping up and down for joy except to say its almost football season giving me something else to smile about.

Go ahead, make my day and prove me wrong that nothing is going to form this weekend.

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James88
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Re: for james re: morning announcements [Re: LoisCane]
      #18048 - Sun Aug 08 2004 11:06 AM

The convection that XTD #2 generated last night is currently on the wane, but let's wait and see if it manages to flare up again in the daytime heat.

>Go ahead, make my day and prove me wrong that nothing is going to form this weekend. <

Something by the end of today may be a difficult wish to fulfil, but as well as our friend near the Yucatan, the wave just outside the Caribbean doesn't look too bad this morning, and the NHC do say that it will be monitored for development, so maybe that would be one of the best places to look for Bonnie over the next couple of days, Bobbi. It is heading into an area not hugely favourable for development, but it could still do something. It's another of those 'wait and see' days.

Still waiting for the former Alex to appear - it's warm and sunny at the moment.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: morning announcements [Re: LoisCane]
      #18049 - Sun Aug 08 2004 11:07 AM

I might be a we bit off the current topic. Anyone have an idea as to what the system moving through TX and OK will do to the current situation?
The last UKMET map I saw had XAlex progged at 975mb. With A 1023mb High off to the east I would think the UK might be in for a Noreaster. To say the least.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 08 2004 11:11 AM)


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LadyStorm
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Re: spins off the coast forming into storms [Re: LoisCane]
      #18050 - Sun Aug 08 2004 11:20 AM

Very interesting information. Thanks for your response to my post. I am sorry if I took your name, I thought I was being creative, I hadn't seen that name before. I have to give you credit for it.

MaryAnn

(duplicate material removed)
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 08 2004 01:54 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Did TD 2 survive "Graveyard"? [Re: danielw]
      #18051 - Sun Aug 08 2004 11:41 AM

To look at this shot, you would think there was something going on. If you loop it on other sites you will see the actual rotation is Clockwise. Very interesting indeed
http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/air/monops/data/satellite/GOES/GULF/ir/latest.jpeg
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


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Frank P
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At 20.6N - 83.3W ExTD2 hints again of rotation [Re: danielw]
      #18052 - Sun Aug 08 2004 02:14 PM

Watching vis sat loops can be deceiving, but if you use the NASA GOES sat pix loops, it certainly appears that ExTD2 hints of a rotation in the midlevels, with outflow being propelled clockwise. Best estimate of the possible center of the rotation is SE of the western tip of Cuba, and the system that is rotating, if it is rotation, is moving off to the NW, heading toward the GOM between Cuba and the Yucatan.. This system has been written off so manys times its probably a CFHC record. I don't think you can really ever write them off until the are well inland.... My opinion is that if it can at keep what it currently has till it gets to the GOM, it still has a shot at development....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


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LI Phil
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Sunday Sleeper... [Re: danielw]
      #18053 - Sun Aug 08 2004 02:15 PM

Yawn...four tropical waves and yet nada happening. 91L removed from NRL so the varmint was right again. 92L still up, but showing no signs of developing ATTM. Quickscat actually shows some winds to 60 kts, but absolutely no rotation. One area (besides the GOM) to watch might be the frontal boundary draped across the Bahamas...of course anything forming there would head east and away from the US. Can't really find anything else of note out there. Seems like a real sleepy Sunday in the tropix. Will have to check the storm forum later for reports from James & Rich on the former Alex' assault on the mother country.

Going to my local NWS today; tour of the place, hurricane presentation, release of a weather balloon. woo-hoo.

A'ite [tm HF], everyone enjoy the day. Check back this e'en.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Did TD 2 survive "Graveyard"? [Re: danielw]
      #18054 - Sun Aug 08 2004 02:21 PM

Bear with me on getting the ID numbers right on the storms:
The swirl that is between the Yuctan and Cuba, Is in an extremely interesting environment. The remnants of the cold front seem to have stalled. I am making an intuitive call and scientific observation of my animals, insects and general atmosphere from central Florida. IF a storm blows up in the GOM this energy is about the best there is for that to happen. It may not be spinning in the correct direction yet, but, I don't think that will prevent a surface low from forming. I seem to remember another storm in 2001 Gabrielle, forming in that area. No one believed she would make it and she was on our back porch in no time at all.(other way darn you, other way) :?:

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Sun Aug 08 2004 02:56 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: XTD2 appears to be alive-again [Re: danielw]
      #18055 - Sun Aug 08 2004 02:26 PM

Now that the visible sats are up there is definitely inflow on the SW thru SE quarters. The cirrocumulus that has been rotating CW all nite has finally given a peek at what is underneath. At this time 1421Z, a large tower, the width of the Isle of Youth, has developed on the South side of that island. May be noted on some maps as Isla de la Juventud.

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: XTD2 appears to be alive-again [Re: danielw]
      #18056 - Sun Aug 08 2004 02:54 PM

Visible spin southwest of Pensacola is also making my heart flutter. There is more to the GOM than meets the eye this morning. I think it would bear watching off an on all day!

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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teal61
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Re: Sunday Sleeper... [Re: LI Phil]
      #18057 - Sun Aug 08 2004 02:59 PM

Hmmm, I don't know about that LI Phil. I tend to agree with the master Frank P that there might be a little something going on south of Cuba. The GOM is fueled up and all it needs is a little spark to fire it up and the wave formally known as TD2 might just be that spark. Something to watch anyway, and it appears some more convection is starting to build around the Ilse of Youth as we speak.

I wonder how rabbits like their crow ?


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Frank P
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Re: Sunday Sleeper... [Re: teal61]
      #18058 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:09 PM

The good Dr. Lyons of TWC mentioned the "weak" mid level circulation (SE of the western tip of Cuba at ~ 20.6 and 83.3) of the tropical depression formally known as TD2 during the 9:50 am TWO segment. He did NOT discuss this "weak " feature during the 8:50 amTWO segment. Geesh, just looking at the mess on vis loop, it certainly looks disturbed, we just need some more convection in it. teal61 is right on about the convection building up around the Isle of "Yutes", which is on the north quadrant of this maybe developing system... my money right now is still on this system, as opposed to anything really taking off in the northern GOM. But who knows with these things.... at least we have something to monitor close to home

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Old Sailor
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Re: Sunday Sleeper... [Re: Frank P]
      #18059 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:18 PM

Looking at Cuba Radar , seems not to show much right now, not like the Radar in Tampa Bay, wait and see what happens..

http://www.met.inf.cu/radar.asp

Dave


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James88
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Re: Sunday Sleeper... [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18060 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:22 PM

The remnants of TD#2 have now been mentioned in the TWO:-

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME.

There does seem to be some convection developing just south of western Cuba. We'll have to see if it can persist.


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LoisCane
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11am, tropics according to Bobbi [Re: teal61]
      #18061 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:23 PM

Okay.. I was never a very numerical girl so I am going to do this according to geographics. I'm sure I'm not the only one round here who is counting on fingers thinking was that 91 or 92.. or 99...so

as I look around the basin after a double expresso for breakfast and had guarana soda for brunch (miami, dont you love it) ...

System east of the Leeward Islands:
I can't believe that is an invest. From a wide lens I can see the reason ..up close is as boring as white rolls without butter. No color on IR at all on invest. Sense of circulation there somewhere but... hasn't given it a manual on how to convect and look good at the same time. Like a bathing beauty with no brains and when you put your glasses on to see... ewww..not so beautiful.

Showers south of Cuba:
Okay.. it has a more of a circulation. I know that. Know how I know that? Cause everytime it gets some convection it loses the convection and it spirals away in some pattern. Looks like a dark dot just south of the "ISLE OF PINES" (im old school) ...but is this the system you want to prove RabbiT wrong on? Oh come on..better ways to spend a sunday.
It needs viagra to help it keep that convection in place.

THE FRONT:
Well storms do form at the end of a dangling front. Excuse me but its still horizontal and hasn't begun to dangle yet if you ask me.. if it ever does dangle will be further south I think in the bahamas not off Jax.. will see.. Its precipitating not dangling. Who the heck knows whats hidden under that white necklace of clouds?

Areas where something could spin maybe?
Maybe the gulf..
Maybe off E coast of Florida in a day or two

Lastly...what happened to the Bermuda High?
Clouds strectch almost from the dangling front all the way to the Azores.

Just goes to show you..for years SNONUT would tell me you can't tell what August will look like because June or May looked a certain way. Patterns change. Indeed they did.

Might make soup or some interesting omelet for later in the day. I need to clean up ..do somethings.. and really not in the mood. Want to just sit here, relax, read the paper, smile and occaisionally peer at the tropics and ponder.. "what the heck happened?"

However.. somewhere some old timer would tell me .. in about a week or two we will hit that week when everything suddenly forms (see TWC charts tho have always found that Landsea has better charts) and we end up with two or three systems to track and to just sit back and let climo do its job.

Okay.........I am giving it 2 weeks (TWO).. before I start ranting and raving about you know what

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Sunday Sleeper... [Re: Old Sailor]
      #18062 - Sun Aug 08 2004 03:23 PM

The NHC begins to speak....

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME.

I think the "limited activity" is starting to change...

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Aug 08 2004 03:30 PM)


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