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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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James88
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Re: bonnie on comeback [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18514 - Tue Aug 10 2004 08:47 AM

Bonnie is now forecasted to make minimal hurricane strength before going inland. Bonnie's 10 mile wide eye is extremely unusual in a system of this strength.

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James88
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Re: bonnie on comeback [Re: James88]
      #18515 - Tue Aug 10 2004 08:52 AM

And we now have Tropical Storm Charley. It's forecast to become a hurricane in about 3 days.

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BugsBunny
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Re: bonnie on comeback [Re: James88]
      #18516 - Tue Aug 10 2004 08:53 AM

I guess I'll be having foot for breakfast

--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: bonnie on comeback [Re: James88]
      #18517 - Tue Aug 10 2004 08:53 AM

The WX Channel is posting a Gulfstream 5 ( NOAA 9) high altitude flight at 1630Z today. The flight path appears to be a pre-storm enviroment flight. Basically a Maltese cross outline.

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 10 2004 09:00 AM)


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BugsBunny
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Re: bonnie on comeback [Re: danielw]
      #18518 - Tue Aug 10 2004 09:00 AM

several recent active seasons have had four August storms (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000; 2001 and 2002 had four by the end of August)
there have been THREE now in the first ten days

--------------------
forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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James88
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Charley's track [Re: danielw]
      #18519 - Tue Aug 10 2004 09:00 AM

The latest forecast takes Charley towards Louisiana and Mississippi as a strong CAT 1 hurricane in around 5 days. This is a slightly faster motion than was anticipated. Of course it is difficult to determine accurately what the path and intensity will be in 5 days time. This storm needs to be watched very closely.

Charley's track

Edited by James88 (Tue Aug 10 2004 09:02 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Charley's track [Re: James88]
      #18520 - Tue Aug 10 2004 09:05 AM

With Bonnie and Charley both making a near miss on New Orleans, people will be evacuating the parishes south of there. Plaquemines and St Bernard will surely evacuate, even for a Tropical storm. Lots of low areas.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: bonnie on comeback/ Can you say Opal [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18521 - Tue Aug 10 2004 09:13 AM

000
WTNT42 KNHC 100844
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BONNIE REMAINS A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WITH A SMALL CDO...CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND BANDING
THAT IS LIMITED BUT INCREASING. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN
RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING BONNIE SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. THE CREW REPORTED A TEN MILE WIDE EYE...ALMOST UNHEARD OF IN A SYSTEM OF THIS INTENSITY.
THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 49 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 43 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES SUCH AS BONNIE ARE PRONE TO RAPID CHANGES IN
INTENSITY...EITHER UP OR DOWN. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT
WOULD ARGUE FOR SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FIRST...ALTHOUGH BONNIE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR...IT SHOULD BE MOVING UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. SECOND...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BONNIE
OVER OR VERY NEAR A POOL OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. A MITIGATING FACTOR WOULD BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS
MODELS MAKE BONNIE A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFS DOES NOT
SHOW INTENSIFICATION...BUT IN FACT BARELY ACKNOWLEDGES BONNIE'S
EXISTENCE DUE TO THE CYCLONE'S SMALL SIZE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CALLS FOR BONNIE
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL
BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THE GFDL
GUIDANCE......
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCDAT2.0408100845

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 10 2004 09:19 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Charley [Re: danielw]
      #18522 - Tue Aug 10 2004 09:31 AM

WTNT33 KNHC 100852
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM Charley ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE AUG 10 2004

...DEPRESSION UPGRADED TO THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS
MORNING.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM Charley WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT
450 MILES... 725 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 10 2004 09:36 AM)


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LadyStorm
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Bonnie and Charley [Re: MikeC]
      #18524 - Tue Aug 10 2004 09:38 AM

Both Bonnie and Charley are going to be very difficult to forcast as to their path and strength. Some of the models put these 2 in very close proximity to each other by the weekend. Another thing in play is how is the low that is sagging to the southeast going to effect these storms? What a forcasters' nightmare.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Charley [Re: danielw]
      #18525 - Tue Aug 10 2004 09:42 AM

06z numerical models taking Charley to 101kts on 8/15 at 06Z.
The Official NHC forecast takes Charley to 80kts at 26.0N/ 88.0W at the same time.
That's getting close to Camille's 35th anniversary.

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 10 2004 09:45 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Bonnie [Re: danielw]
      #18526 - Tue Aug 10 2004 09:52 AM

NHC official wind speed forecast giving Bonnie a 40% chance of making CAT 1 in 36 hours, 35% in 48 hours, and 30% in 24 hours. As of the 09Z advisory.

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LI Phil
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Early Mornin' All... [Re: danielw]
      #18527 - Tue Aug 10 2004 10:33 AM

Computer went AWOL again last evening...went to bed early...couldn't sleep...just read through about 100 posts...98 of which were on topic and excellent.

I'll drop the CATVrick references...funny if you know the context, NOT if you don't. We've got two potentially biguns on the pond and while "nothing" could come of them, right now I wouldn't want to bet on that scenario.

To all the posters in the Gulf, keep TWO very watchful eyes on the GOM, and make sure you have your preparations either complete or nearly complete. Right now mi amigos in PCB appear to have the bullseye, but all interests from Steve to Kevin need to be prepared. That leaves a lot of you posters in between.

Like Ed said and HanKFranK reiterated...keep the posts on topic. It is going to get NUTS this week, especially if Bonnie reaches Hurricane status. I will not hesitate to drop the hammer if I have to. You were all great tonight!

Check with ya later.

Peace,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Here is my forecast number one! [Re: LI Phil]
      #18528 - Tue Aug 10 2004 10:34 AM

Tropical storm Charley
Forecast Number 1#
6am est/3am pst
8-10-2004


....Tropical Depression 3 becomes tropical storm Charley.....


The third tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season forms as of 5am est...The system is moving westward at 24 mph to the west-northwest...At the rate this system is moving, added on top of its large size, is limiting rapid development durning the past 12 hours. In on another note: Most of Monday the system was limited by a western feeder band...That sucked the convection from the center of the system for a better part of the day...Later last night into this morning this feeder band has faded away allowling the central core to form a CDO. Because of no obs with in the area the location of the LLCC is being based on Satellite. Night time Visible shows that the low level center might be on the northeastern side of the large ball of convection with the MLC around the center around 80 miles apart...The LLCC could just as likely be stacked but that will be looked into when the recon gets into the system this afternoon.

Over the short term the system has started to develop a feeder band on its western quad...Also inflow on the south/southeast is perfect for a tropical cyclone to bomb...The western in northern seems only fair...

The Enviroment around this system seems to be very favable with shear less then 5 to 10 knots of shear...With a upper level high forming right over the tropical cyclone...Shear out ahead of this could not be more favable. This being said with water temperatures around 78 degrees to 84 degrees a Isabel or Lili class storm could form over the next 72 hours. The ouflow forming channels are perfect for a system to come together fast.

Track
The current movement is to the west-northwest which this system should stay on that track for the next 24 to 36 hours...42 to 48 hours a track just to the south of Jamica seems likely. The models over the last few runs(GFDL in other hurricane track model have shifted slightly south or left) Around 96 hours I expect this storm to be moving into the Gulf of Mexico as a powerful hurricane.


Forecast winds
Now(3am pst,6am est) 40 mph 1007 millibars
6(9am pst,12pm est) 45 mph 1005 millibars
12(9pm pst,12am est) 55 mph 1003 millibars
24(3am pst,6am est) 60 mph 997 millibars
36(9am pst,12pm est) 70 mph 993 millibars
48(9pm pst,12am est) 85 mph 987 millibars
60(9am pst,12pm est) 95 mph 982 millibars
72(9pm pst,12am est) 105 mph 972 millibars
84(9am pst,12pm est) 110 mph 965 millibars
96(9pm pst,12am est) 90 mph 978 millibars(Moving over the northern yact)
Long range forecast...
108(9am pst,12pm est) 105 mph 974 millibars(Central Gulf of Mexico around 25 north/90 west)
120 hours(9pm pst,12am est) 125 mph 955 millibars(Nearing the texas in La boarder)


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James88
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Bonnie flaring up [Re: Anonymous]
      #18529 - Tue Aug 10 2004 10:41 AM

Bonnie is now boasting an area of deep convection near or over the centre. She does seem to be getting better organised.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Bonnie flaring up [Re: James88]
      #18531 - Tue Aug 10 2004 10:49 AM

This is an hour old at 1048Z
000
URNT12 KNHC 100942
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/0942Z
B. 23 DEG 44 MIN N
90 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1483 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 196 DEG 41 KT
G. 144 DEG 27 NM
H. 1005 MB
I. 17 C/ 1571 M
J. 23 C/ 1572 M-temp inside the eye,up 2deg in 2hrs
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1235/8
O. 0.5/2.0 NM
P. AF963 0402A BONNIE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 0723Z.

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 10 2004 10:55 AM)


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Hurric
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Re: Here is my forecast number one! [Re: Anonymous]
      #18533 - Tue Aug 10 2004 11:00 AM

Hi, Anon unregistered with blue face and blinking eyes. A nice post and interesting. If you have time to put into such a detailed post please take the time to register. This would help everyone to differienciate you from the other 40 or so anons that might be on.
Thanks Hurric


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bobbi
Unregistered




For Rabbit [Re: BugsBunny]
      #18534 - Tue Aug 10 2004 11:15 AM

i like u. i don't know why you seem to annoy some people because you don't play with the plan and speak your thoughts or because your thoughts are often right.

I hear what you are saying. I looped the loop. My only problem with your thought is this...and give it lots of creedence as Charley has picked up speed as opposed to slowing down as forecasted by most trackers... He seems tightly wound and also seems to be moving more west than the forecast has talked about.

Also... looking back on Bonnie as it was and as it is I think that it probably was a TS at some point but it has always had a tight small core of winds somewhere and doubt that they found it on their trip inside. It didn't have the size or look of Charley ever and unable to support itself especially with such a small pin point like center and fell apart easily.

I don't see Charley falling apart as easily and think it has more going for it. Historically speaking it's in the Hurricane Graveyard I think they call it....but its zooming along not reading its press releases or this board. And, it has less shear. Bonnie had to fight strong shear and fell apart as you said.. predicted. Charley has a different set up, different look and I think a much tighter inner core.

So, I hear your point but I don't see it playing out that way. Though it if moves up to 25 or 26mph at 11 am I'll be amazed if it can keep up at this pace.

Anyone have statistics here on famous hurricanes that kept up at 25mph? Like to see them.

Going to try and log in..Bobbi


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: For Rabbit [Re: bobbi]
      #18535 - Tue Aug 10 2004 11:22 AM

It may still be moving at this speed at 11am Bobbie, but should slow down later tonight or tomorrow. It eventually will get under the influence of the trough and slow for sure, then NW/N/NE. THis is a very deep trough coming in, typical for winter, or at least late fall. The timing is critical though, since a degree or two can make the difference between Panama City and Miami up the Fl east coast. We should get a better idea tomorrow. Don't ya just hate that!!!!!

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B O B B I
Unregistered




i hear you Steve... [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #18536 - Tue Aug 10 2004 11:33 AM

please note.. its Bobbi BOBBI maybe you are thinking of BONNIE...that has an E..I don't.

Anyway.. what I'd like to know is from the regulars, all of us...how many of you think Charley can go further to the west than is being thought by most and where?

Like some thoughts on Bonnie even though I am obsessed with thoughts on Charley.


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