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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Other Things of Interest [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #18603 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:14 PM

Usually when we have more than one storm, all the attention gets paid to them. As a question, what else looks promising for the near future?

The TWO mentioned the non-tropical low near Bermuda, but said that development was not likely as it was scooting away quickly and upper level winds were not favorable. Accuweather also mentioned this item in their discussion, but said that it was a potential candidate for development.

There is the wave off Africa and a number of waves on the African continent about to move off.


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Hardcore
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Re: Other Things of Interest [Re: Anonymous]
      #18604 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:16 PM

What a busy month this has turned into . I'm glad that I got my weather station up and online for these storms. Stay safe everyone



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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doug
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Re: Bonnie [Re: rickonboat]
      #18606 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:25 PM

Bonnie is ailing...most of the convection on the south and west have seperated, but a new convective core is forming near the center, this happened yesterday too...still no convection north or east, and that is not healthy...even money on it dissapating.

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rickonboat
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Re: rick...lol [Re: LI Phil]
      #18607 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:28 PM

cat 5, Mobile, Al...of course

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley [Re: Anonymous]
      #18608 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:28 PM

Not a bad synopsis Scott. I see the center at just about 15N....but heading at like 290? The model initializations have to be too far south. He's moving at a good clip though. Wonder when he will really slow down. I could see this crossing the peninsula at like Sarasota, but if its moving that fast it will make more ehadway into the GOM. If it gonna hit Florida south/central it would have to slow down tomorrow morning. If not, could be in the big bend. But its not going to avoid the trough.

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Anonymous
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Re: Blank spot on the map!? [Re: Clark]
      #18609 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:29 PM

Hey Clark-

It is not due to the fact that no one lives there (or the St. Marks NWR would be blank too....

btw--I know quite a few folks who do live there. It is blank because there is no SS in that area of Wakulla.

fyi.

sc


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #18610 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:31 PM

Nogaps 12Z run now initializes Charley better and now takes it right into western florida from Ft Myers-Bigbend area in 96hours. 180dg turn around from 00oz run which had it going thru Yucitan and then to Mexico mainland. scottsvb

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clyde w.
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Hurricane "Clyde" [Re: joepub1]
      #18611 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:35 PM

LMAO!

A Hurricane Clyde hitting Florida could only be comparable to a Hurricane Rick hitting Mobile!!

Sent a couple of PM's to say I'm on IR this season-- no real PC access until October

But I read when I can--and this is a great time to sneak on at work--miss everyone!


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Anonymous
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Re: Other Things of Interest [Re: Anonymous]
      #18612 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:35 PM

That NT low is the one I picked up on the other day, looks too sheared for now , wave off Africa looks good....

sc


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley [Re: scottsvb1]
      #18613 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:36 PM

What changes in the variables might have caused this 180 degree turn?

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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Anonymous
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Re: Other Things of Interest [Re: Hardcore]
      #18614 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:37 PM

:? I have a few questions that someone might be able to help me with. This first trough that is supposed to turn Bonnie towards the north, will it be strong enough, or weaken once it makes it to the gulf and create a little more shear and keep her moving NW? Secondly the big front coming down in a couple of days, that is supposed to sweep her up and out and pick Charley up towards the NNE. What if it slows down or is not as strong as forecasted? What if Charley is a lot stronger by the time he reaches the gulf and kind of creates his own environment over him? Would that jst keep him moving to the WNW or NW? Thanks for your info. :?:

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andy1tom
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Re: Other Things of Interest [Re: Anonymous]
      #18615 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:42 PM

when will the NHC issue any warnings on bonnie? t v said they may go up tonight. anyone have any info?

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley [Re: scottsvb1]
      #18616 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:44 PM

Quote:

Nogaps 12Z run now initializes Charley better and now takes it right into western florida from Ft Myers-Bigbend area in 96hours. 180dg turn around from 00oz run which had it going thru Yucitan and then to Mexico mainland. scottsvb




A model flip flopping....I cant believe it.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Other Things of Interest [Re: andy1tom]
      #18617 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:47 PM

Probably see watches/warnings posted tonight... my best guess.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Other Things of Interest [Re: Anonymous]
      #18618 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:50 PM

first for the gentleman asking about the 180dg turn around question is what i posted on last page. The NOGAPS didnt initialize the low that well and saw it as a open wave. Now that it has it, it will take Charley with the mid level pattern.
Charley will not cause its own enviroment, that is a false opinion in my book but others do beleive its true. Remember floyd was soo huge and powerfull but then ran into a strong eastern U.S. trough and pulled it NNW and weakend it down some with the sw shear. Mitch was simular, ran into a upper ridge to its Nw and moved W then SW even Briefly SSW till the pattern over the southern U.S. changed causeing the Yucitan ridge to move to the the Fl straits and then moving then inland mitch (T.S.) NW into the BoC.Then mitch felt the trough that pushed the ridge to the straits and moved Mitch Ne to and thru Sw florida.
Anyways with Charley, nothing is set. Still models will shift some but are coming in better argreement in Florida (area) as I see it. AVN (which I go by alot) somereason doesnt want to give Charley recognition, probably cause of bad feedback problems. Wait for the 18Z and 00Z runs tonight to see what it does again. GFDL changes every other run, I dont go by that in general. But its not always overdone in intensity as is usually the ships model.
So will the trough take Charley, ,I think so cause it will be strong but where the turn and how much and if it leaves him behind in the SE gulf remains to be seen, but since models show a continued brisk pace, Charley looks good on crossing Cuba to the Se Gulf. scottsvb


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andy1tom
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Re: Other Things of Interest [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #18619 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:50 PM

that'll mean the schools will be closed tomorrow..plus if its hurrican warning they shut down booze sellin

Edited by andy1tom (Tue Aug 10 2004 05:52 PM)


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bobbi
Unregistered




bonnie [Re: Clark]
      #18620 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:54 PM

she's having problems with shear and maintaining her growth so far and to say a system like this couldn't fall apart in August because its over warm water is like saying just cause a cute girl goes to a school dance wearing all the right clothes..she won't stand there all night with no one to dance with. She might be in the right place but you know how you can't get a horse to drink water even if you lead it to the creek

never say never, especially with Bonnie..I find her to be not reliable of furfilling people's expectations and more of a talker than a doer

IF she stays small.. a big IF... it will be easier for her to be GRABBED by the trof and pulled east and it will be harder for her to fight the shear.. There isn't much to hold onto and she will get tired real soon of fighting unless the conditions change fast

also..

Lets say she hangs in there and struggles ne eventually and ends up in the Eastern part of the Gulf vs La to Tx... well that scenario you showed with the big moisture tail will only work if she becomes a bit wet storm like Alex ended up doing. If she stays a small tightly wound storm w/o much moisture she will merge with some trough (probably one thats been overamplified by the models) and create more of a twister danger than a rainmaker.. reference some previous tropical storm that created a swath of twisters across Central florida.

Some leave rain, some make twisters and some do both

What will Bonnie do ultimately.. hmmmmn, good question.

going to go obsess now some over Charley


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Other Things of Interest [Re: andy1tom]
      #18621 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:55 PM

I would not count on school being closed just yet... the second thing is part of a well stocked hurricane kit

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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bobbi
Unregistered




ps..re: charley [Re: bobbi]
      #18622 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:56 PM

Wouldn't trust any model output until the planes give an exact fix to the center of the storm. With that done.. run the models again and then we can all prophesize disaster.

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LI Phil
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No booze? [Re: andy1tom]
      #18623 - Tue Aug 10 2004 05:59 PM

>>> plus if its hurrican warning they shut down booze sellin

Really? Not up here! That's good to know though...have to make sure that's in the kit in case the "big one" comes up north.

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