javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I think you are right in one aspect Bobbi that she seems to be moving more W.I cannot see what is suppose to tug her northward.Frances right now seems to of slowed down considerbly in the last few frames.This by my own rules says a change in direction is about to happen usually does.Since I can't see event that wll cause this makes it tough to call.I have to say Luis keep your eyes open and be safe.I'll have to say that I believe is not going as far N as projected.I hope that I am wrong on this.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>new oar-leeens
That's New Or-Lee-uns /get it straight.
Frances is a curiosity. I haven't been paying nearly the attention to her that I should, but my nights have been spent vegging on the couch watching the Olympics. I did catch Stacey Stewart's 5pm TWD today, and it shows why he's the best of them all. He challenges himself and the reader and discusses more possibilities than any of the other forecasters. He should probably be the HMIC.
Someone posted a thread on S2K today asking for some morning line predictions. Usually this would be too far out. But I was bored at work and took a look at some of the historical tracks. I threw my bet behind the SC/NC border and the Outer Banks (think it will come up SW of them). But that's a complete roll of the dice. It could just as easily hit Florida or Nova Scotia. Things change and morph (fluid as bobbi always says), and you really never know what's going to happen (as anything can and usually does). I took a chance a couple of weeks ago looking at the pattern we were going into (was a Norway to Baja ridge) and wondered if the pattern repeated whether or not we'd see a couple of long tracked storms (= landfalling storms). In my mind, a ridge building to the north means westward motion. And whether that means a Hugo, an Andrew or a broken down ridge with a storm running the coast 100 miles offshore, we're just going to have to wait and see.
Bastardi's homebrew appears to have excellent support. If it fires, score him the coup (originally noted last Friday as an area to watch regardless of whether there was anything tropical there or not).
I got a feeling we're in for a kick ass next 8 weeks. America hasn't been getting hit by majors the last 10-12 years commensurate (sp?) with the number of majors that have developed. Don't say you heard it here first, but the idea has crossed my mind that we could easily see an unprecedented 2-3 more majors make landfall this year. If you count Alex (though he was only a 2 @ landfall/brush-by) and , that spells a banner year for tracking and a banner year for destruction. I haven't done any research tonight except look at the Goes 12 IR. But I've been thinking. Yeah, I've been thinking.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Clark
Meteorologist
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A few interesting notes...
1) was the first cat. 4+ hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
2) Only 17 cat. 4+ hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. since 1900.
3) The last four cat. 4+ storms to make landfall in the U.S.? Camille (1969), Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992), (2004)
4) Only twice has the U.S. mainland *possibly* been impacted with two landfalling cat. 4+ storms since 1900 - 1906 and 1915. In 1906, it's debateable regarding hurricane #8 and the Fl. Keys; in 1915, it's debateable about the intensity at landfall of hurricane #2.
I post there partially because my major professor asked me if two cat. 4+ storms had ever made landfall in the U.S. in a year and partially because it's a scenario we could see play out over the remainder of this season, starting with . It's a rarity folks, but it can happen.
Frances' eye looks to be becoming better defined on IR satellite imagery, although we're currently in satellite "twilight" for a couple of hours. We'll probably have a cat. 2 storm on our hands sometime tomorrow....well, today now. Outflow is excellent N to SW, becoming a little less defined on the S side. It's there on the east side, but is not nearly as well-defined as on the west side. It is moving into a region of very low shear - even less than what it was encountering, although it wasn't high to begin with - and despite mid-level dry air, precipitable water values are still high across the ocean, so further strengthening is likely.
It is interesting to note that a couple of models take the storm into the cat. 3-4 range within 5 days, most within 3 with a leveling in intensity beyond then. This includes some runs of the and the Superensemble. The trends westward have stopped to some degree, and I think the current forecast track looks about right. If it slows as much as is forecast late in the period, could be out there 10 or so more days. As is, somewhere around 8-10 sounds good.
The ultimate question will be how far to the west that the subtropical ridge builds over time, and how fast the storm moves in response to it. A faster storm will likely move further to the west with a stronger ridge. If the ridge builds to between Bermuda and the Outer Banks, a NC landfall or brush off the coast looks like a good bet. If it builds to the islands, then a NC/SC track looks like a better bet. If it builds inland a bit, then all bets are off.
The first scenario has played out the most times through history under these circumstances and tend to produce category 2 storms affecting the Wilmington to Cape Hatteras area; the last scenario has played out the least number of times but tends to result in strong storms affecting Florida, then getting into the Gulf and landfalling again between Lake Charles and Destin.
By all means though, it's one we're definitely going to have to follow.
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BevMott
Unregistered
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You stated that this storm would not see the same apathy that endured and that we would see the largest evacuation ever.
I'm in Bradenton, and I was under a mandatory evacuation. Unfortunately I evacuated to Arcadia which took a direct hit by .
There was very little apathy here in SW FL and we already DID the largest evacuation ever. Both Pinellas and Manatee were under A,B,C evacs and Collier up to Cedar Key were under at least an A,B evac.
More than 1 million people evacuated from Pinellas and Hillsborough alone.
So please don't accuse us of apathy. I saw very very little of it. They warned and we responded.
However, next time I'm not going anywhere, unless I have time to get to Nebraska. One ride dead in the eye of category 4 is enough for me.
Best Regards,
Bev Mott
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FSU GRAD
Unregistered
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Just thought i note that on Sept. 6th.... There could be Hurricanes in South Florida.... and Miami.... (FSU@MI)
Why what a story.... looks like they could cancel the Labor Day game if a CAT 2 or 3 is off the Coast....
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Go Noles
>>I post there partially because my major professor asked me if two cat. 4+ storms had ever made landfall in the U.S. in a year and partially because it's a scenario we could see play out over the remainder of this season, starting with . It's a rarity folks, but it can happen.
Interesting points Clark. I see you're thinking along the same lines as I am. I told HF in a PM that 5 majors impacting the coast is a big stretch, but the idea of 5 landfalling canes in 2004 isn't by a long shot. The Gulf season (though snuck in) hasn't even started. Sometimes we see June action and then go dry until late August through late October. We've got a long way to go.
One thing though - wasn't Bret a 4 at landfall near King's Ranch?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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One more thing for the backburner. I didn't check the forum to see if anyone had posted it, but here's the August update for 5 and 8 month lead times on El Nino. 6 of 11 models have trended warm for winter (other 5 are neutral), but are unanimously neutral in 8 (April 2005). Could 2005 be shaping up to be another mixed-signal year (2002, 2003, 2004...)?
August Model Output
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Steve - I definitely agree. Five canes isn't a longshot by any means. We've already had a couple. Three or four are more likely of course, but you never know. Seems like every year brings something new and historic these days -- whether it's wrong-way Lenny & Floyd in 1999; or the extra-long season, Fabian/Isabel, and April Ana in 2003; or Alex & in 2004. That doesn't even include the S. Atlantic storm...
The best track info I have for Bret says it weakened to a cat 3 just before landfall.
Re: GRAD -- We've got 10 and a half days at least before the -UM football game would be affected - and to tell the truth, if the storm hits South Florida, I think it'll be closer to 8 days away instead of 10. It'll take longer if it recurves, less time if it heads straight towards Florida. There are more important things to worry about regarding that game for !
BTW, a note to the mods/site admins: the advisory info for on the side of the page is coming up with an east longitude, at least on my end. Probably a problem in the 's data somewhere that is causing something to hiccup or something and not really important, but just something I noticed.
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EriktheFled
Unregistered
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Along with some other posters, I think it's too early to talk about landfall anywhere outside of the NE Antilles (which is already a long shot). That said, is gearing up to be another photogenic, compact major hurricane, like an old favorite of mine (Edouard, 1996).
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The eye of the hurricane is now much less distinct than it was an hour or two ago.
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Matt033
Unregistered
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Nrl says 85 knots/975 millibars!!!!!
Thats 100 mph cat2 hurricane!
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Appears that TPC and James may be collaborating on the Eye. Thye have increased the intensity to 80 kts or 92 mph. Making very near to CAT 2 strength.
The most interesting part of the discussion were the long term forecast positions. The 31/0600Z has the storm retrograding S to 21.0 and 61.5, Loss of 0.5 degrees from the 31/0000Z position. The 01/0600Z position is moved S to 21.5 and 65.0. Reflecting a loss of 0.5 degrees from the previous forecast position These are long term forecasts and are subject to change, in days to come.
Looking at the lat/ longs for 30/06z to 01/06z- the track is no further north than 21.5N. The 01/0600z position, 21.5N / 65.0W, from the 5AM discussion, would be about 250 miles N of St Croix, and 360 mile E of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Not a lot of margin here!
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Not much has changed since late yesterday...Frances almost a CAT II and wouldn't be surprised if she's classified as such at 11:00am. JB posted early today and he feels it's Hattaras and north. Great. Of course, way to early to tell, but that's not good news regardless.
Steve, one of these days I'll get the New Or Le Unnns pronounciation correct.
Das all fo' now. Got to get a quick 40 if possible. Catchya before the 11 update.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Loc: United States
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Keeping my fingers crossed, that he stays away from FL. Daniel, I am not ignoring you your mailbox is full and won't let me PM you.
MaryAnn
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Same here.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Sorry to be a bit off topic here. The Charleston, SC radar is showing a circulation on their long range radar. To early to tell on radar, but the IR loop showed it drifting ESE. Link here.
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kclx.shtml
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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>>>>>You stated that this storm would not see the same apathy that endured and that we would see the largest evacuation ever.
There was very little apathy here in SW FL and we already DID the largest evacuation ever<<<<<<<<
While there might not have been apathy during the approach of , I must concur with the original poster's logic. Here in inland Central Florida, very few people did anything to prepare for the storm. Sure, there was the typical run on bottled water and canned goods at the grocery store...but very little actual preparation. Heck, most people left their trash cans (the storm hit on trash pick-up day) sitting at the curb through the hurricane!!!
But this time, things are different. There is already a low-level buzz starting over . People who did nothing to prepare for are now saying they will board up and definitely stock up on hurricane essentials. So, while we may not see any larger evacuations, I am SURE there will be massive crowds / lines at the area grocery & hardware stores. And I think there will be another run on the local gas supply. Everyone will make sure their gas tanks are completely "topped-off". The memories of not being able to get gas anywhere for days after the storm are just too fresh.
--Lou
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Matt033
Unregistered
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Frances looks much stronger at this hour. With red wraping around its eyewall with a clearly defined eye. I would say 5.5/5.5 for the next t number. With a strong cat3 or weak cat4 by 11am Advisory!
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Just an observation here. The 06Z A98E model has taking a dive? south.
29/06z 17.2N/ 58.0W
30/06z 16.3N/ 63.8W
31/06z 14.8N/ 69.3W
01/06z 12.8N/ 74.0W
*These are just model parameters and are not necessarily forecast tracks.*
Is something going on with the ridge that we haven't seen yet? 12.8/ 74.0 is south of the westernmost tip of Haiti.
Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 27 2004 11:36 AM)
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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Definitely taking a NW movement this morning. In most cases that would be good but in this case it could be bad.A98E? Has that model ever been right or even close. I remember in the past. That was the outlier of all models but it doesn't mean one out of all, can't be right. 
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