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MikeCAdministrator
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Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas
      #22327 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:10 PM

The 11PM Advisory out and it shifts the track slightly left, GFL is what the hurricane center is favoring now. One disturbing trend is that the models slow the forward speed of the storm as it approaches the Florida coastline. However, the more southerly and Carolina tracks are still not ruled out, this time tomorrow evening we should have a better handle, that is if models and other aspects behave. Still more to come later.


This graphic (Thanks Skeetobite) represents the possible wind swath of Hurricane Force winds based on the current wind profile and current track over Central Florida as of 11PM Tuesday. The main point of this is to show that Frances is a larger system than Charley was (as far as diameter and windfield) and if the track holds could cause a wider area to see hurricane force winds.

My best guestimate for landfall as of now is the range between just south of West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral. This could change.

Frances has trended back left with the models and we'll be updating more later tonight.



New graphic Model plots animated over time to help see trends. Source images are from the South Florida Water managmenet District webpage.

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tomorrow night at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time (new as of 3:30PM today)
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
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Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #22330 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:17 PM

Thanks for the new thread, Mike. I'll herd them over here...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HurriK
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Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas [Re: LI Phil]
      #22332 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:20 PM

is it me or does the ULL of the keys/cuba appear to be weakening? if so will this allow for a more west track?

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LI Phil
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Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas [Re: LI Phil]
      #22333 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:21 PM

I pray for the inhabitants of the Bahamas...this is a Floyd redux (not to say this takes the path of Floyd). This could reach CAT V strength and then it's more than likely on to Northern FL for a direct hit. More prayers go out there. Tomorrow will be the crucial day in terms of landfall ideas. Everyone get some good rest tonight and tomorrow...Thursday and Friday will pose some sleepless nights for A LOT of people.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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javlin
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Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances [Re: HurriK]
      #22335 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:32 PM

The ULL seems to be taking a pounding right now looks to be weakening for sure.This I would think if the ULL gets dissolved lead to a more W track in the long term.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Edited by javlin (Tue Aug 31 2004 10:38 PM)


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wxman007
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Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances [Re: javlin]
      #22336 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:40 PM

Well, the new (00z) Eta is a breath of fresh air...pulling Frances up almost immediately and out to sea in less than 48hrs...too bad it doesn't look realistic..

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Tue Aug 31 2004 10:40 PM)


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ShaggyDude
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Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances [Re: wxman007]
      #22337 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:41 PM

Here's the latest spaghetti - lookin bad for Florida
http://hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html
-yeah, the only deviant on the map

Edited by ShaggyDude (Tue Aug 31 2004 10:42 PM)


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BillD
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Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances [Re: javlin]
      #22338 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:41 PM

Earlier I used the technical word "squashed". I think the ULL is on its way out (JK/007 mentioned this possiblity last night), and this will allow Frances to continue westward uninhibited. But Frances will still move poleward when and where the ridge breaks down. The ULL was an interesting diversion, but the status of the ridge and what impact the approaching trough has will make all the difference.

Bill


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BillD
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Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #22339 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:44 PM

I don't know about that, there are some key players there that have moved right and east. This looks better than the 18Z that had them all bunched up between WPB and MLB.

Bill


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ShaggyDude
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Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances [Re: BillD]
      #22340 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:45 PM

Latest discussion, brilliantly done and very scary - and, by stewart i might add

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200406.disc.html


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ShaggyDude
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Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances [Re: BillD]
      #22341 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:47 PM

also, forecast track continues slightly southward towards vero beach again
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_5day.html


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wxman007
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Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #22342 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 PM

I concur...Mr Stewart really delivered tonight...this is a brilliant piece of writing...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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DroopGB31
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Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances [Re: BillD]
      #22343 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:49 PM

Anyone have any trouble getting on Storm2k tonight? Im not a member just a lurker, I find this a better site to post at. But anyways, everytime I've gone there today it tells me to log in. Have they closed the site to lurkers due to a overload of people?

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LI Phil
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Stacey's Fan Club... [Re: wxman007]
      #22344 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:51 PM

The man is the bomb. Although, I don't think NHC have ever given three such divergent possible end game scenarios...SC/Central FL/GOM. It almost appears my crow munching forecast for hattaras might have a last breath of air...tomorrow's the day, people, tomorrow's the day...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BillD
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Re:War of the World's:ULL vs Frances [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #22345 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:53 PM

Add my name to the Stewart fan club list. Well written and concise discussion, with explanations. But what he is describing is not going to help me sleep tonight.

Bill


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ShaggyDude
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Re: Stacey's Fan Club... [Re: LI Phil]
      #22346 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:56 PM

i agree my friends, his ominous discussion brings many more questions than answers, but tomorrow will shall see so much more - good luck to all

hopefully, we will have an optimistic chat tomorrow, though... (sigh)... we shall see

peace to all of you, and good luck once again


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sullynole
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Re: Stewart fans [Re: BillD]
      #22347 - Tue Aug 31 2004 10:59 PM

I thought the Stewart fan club might enjoy this... http://www.hurricaneville.com/stewart_interview.html

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Justin in Miami
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11pm Stewart Discussion [Re: BillD]
      #22348 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:01 PM

Exactly Bill....i was afraid of that scenario he described....that makes me VERY concerned now...tomorrow is probably going to give us even more questions considering the possible slow down and shift later in the northern bahamas

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DroopGB31
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Re: Stewart fans [Re: sullynole]
      #22349 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:04 PM

I agree, awesome write-up.

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DroopGB31
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Re: Stewart fans [Re: DroopGB31]
      #22350 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:09 PM

Jason, I have a question for ya. I know your probably busy but what are your thoughts about where she'll landfall? Im really begining to think S Fl to C Fl. Also are you concerned about maybe a second landfall on the gulf coast? I dont understand how Frances will turn due north once it makes landfall according to the 11pm Track map. Any thoughts are greatly appreciated. Thanks

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wxman007
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Re: Stewart fans [Re: DroopGB31]
      #22351 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:14 PM

I have been riding a West Palm Beach landfall since this weekend, and I see little reason to diverge from that right now.

Second Gulf landfall? If I am right, then probably so, very near my (and your) area. I am still not comfortable with this yet...but I am starting to get more concerned about this thing getting in the Gulf too.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Stewart fans [Re: DroopGB31]
      #22352 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:14 PM

I think stewert has been reading my forcasts the last few days on here,,lmao jk but they are almost word to word that i say. Its just a joke of course cause im sure the NHC and him are seeing the overall picture like i am.

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Justin in Miami
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Watches / Warnings [Re: DroopGB31]
      #22353 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:17 PM

I figure Hurricane Watches for FL East coast by 5am Thursday morning?

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Stewart fans [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22354 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:20 PM

I better spell his name right stewart,...duh!

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Brad
Unregistered




Hebert's box/square misinformation [Re: MikeC]
      #22355 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:35 PM

Someone - I think wxmanrichie(sp?) - wrote: "My take - Just remember that 90% of all major hurricanes that go through Hebert's box hit Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties down the road as major hurricanes."

Again, I want to dispel incorrect information regarding Hebert's box/square. I am confident that the above statement regarding the 90% figure is incorrect. As far as I know, the 1928 hurricane and David are major hurricanes that hit S. Fla. after traveling through the box, but I'm not sure if they were even major hurricanes when they went through the box. (The above-quoted language suggests that being cat 3+ while in the box is one of the criteria -- not sure if that was intentional.) Andrew was outside the box, although close to it, and was not a major hurricane (was it a hurricane at all?) at the time.

I don't know of any others that have passed through the box and struck South Florida as majors. So that's 2 that fit the criteria, 3 if you count Andrew; it's not even mathematically possible to come up with a number of "misses" that would make that 90% figure correct.

And there's a reason for that: it isn't correct. Many storms pass through the box without affecting South Florida. Some of those storms pass through the box as major hurricanes.

Passing through the box does correlate to a higher chance of a South Florida hit, and a hit by a major (which makes sense based on location - north of the islands but not too far north, SE of S. Fla., etc.), but it's not a 90% guarantee or anything close to it.

I think Hebert's box/square has become the stuff of urban legend.

-Brad

it is misinformation (probably not deliberate). should read something like 90% of majors that hit the three SE florida counties from the atlantic side went through the box, not the converse. of course half that go through the box probably miss the east coast, and the remainder hit elsewhere. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:53 PM)


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation [Re: Brad]
      #22357 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:40 PM

GFS 00Z is starting to come in..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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AgentB
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Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation [Re: Brad]
      #22358 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:42 PM

More about Hebert's Box here:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/weather/special/storm/reports/070603box.html

And it seems that the criteria is it must be a major hurricane when it passes through this box. Not a major hurricane then it isn't even factored into the equation.

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:49 PM)


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DroopGB31
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Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22361 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:53 PM

Thanks for the quick reply Jason. I basically agree with your West Palm Beach landfall, maybe just a few miles north of there but thats just my opinion. I guess we just gotta wait and see what the trough in the plains will do to the ridge. If the ridge is stronger than forecast that could pose a problem for the Gulf Coast after she makes landfall. Im starting to become alittle concerned. Whew, what a week its been so far, and its only gonna get more hectic.

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SirCane
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Re: Stewart fans [Re: wxman007]
      #22362 - Tue Aug 31 2004 11:58 PM

The way the models are trending-I'm afraid we're going to see a double landfall. I think she may reach the Gulf after hitting S. Florida. Tomorrow will be very interesting to see how things are trending!

This season is going down in History-that's for sure!


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Brad
Unregistered




Re: Hebert's box/square misinformation [Re: Brad]
      #22363 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:00 AM

Based on HF's comment, I should clarify: I definitely did not mean to accuse anyone of making a deliberate misstatement or of trying to hype anything up. To the contrary, I think whoever posted the Hebert's stat believed it, and was trying to convey helpful information, which of course is a great thing. I just wanted to point out what portion of it I thought was incorrect, although well-intended.

-Brad


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wxman007
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Latest GFS..... [Re: Brad]
      #22364 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:17 AM

102 hr GFS

Post more as it comes in....



--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Wed Sep 01 2004 12:22 AM)


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: wxman007]
      #22365 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:24 AM

Jason,
greetings from Orlando.
Can you possibly make this thing go away? Please.....

Two hurricanes in 3 weeks......and this one is going to be a slow wet windy one.

Central Florida has been so fortunate for so many years.

All I can think of to say is: YIKES.......SOS....


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joepub1
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: wxman007]
      #22366 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:26 AM

Looks like a just south of the Cape hit, moves very much like the NHC track thru 3-4 days; also has a WNW turn to go into the state.

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wxman007
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: joepub1]
      #22367 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:27 AM

Actually, as it is coming in....it slows to a crawl and then rides the coastline just inland thru JAX and into SE Ga...just another wrinkle...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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joepub1
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: joepub1]
      #22369 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:36 AM

And, something I'm getting so tired of seeing, it then turns north and runs up the coast inland . My house again!! We may have a Charley in the other direction. A bunch of towns and cities along the coast, trying to figure out where she's going to pass inland. Then everybody north of that point deals with her. But no crossing of the state. SE Georgia takes it from FL. I'm begining to believe in this track just a little, I've seen it in one form or another for 2 days now. The sooner she goes inland, the better for N FL, but if it's a late turn, we may still have a Cat 2-3 to deal with.....

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: joepub1]
      #22370 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 AM

Yeah well it looks like when it comes in to the state around vero it travels up the middle of state into GA.. The worse thing about this scenario is that Hurricane Force winds will be felt on both sides of the coast.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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javlin
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: wxman007]
      #22371 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 AM

It seems a bit slow in getting there doesn't it.I'm just playing with the speed of 15mph on it extrap would be there in about 60hrs.I used 13 degrees W and 6 degrees N.simple trig.The NHC must really see a slow down coming.

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: joepub1]
      #22372 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:43 AM

Its hard to see but just think over Freeport-west palm it just goes stationary almost as a ridge builds over it,,then moves around the ridge into the florida near Melbourne then north into se Ga. But for 24 hours it moves about 40 miles. I feel bad for anyone on the coast if this is only off by 25-40 miles to the west of where its shown near 79W and 27N.

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wxman007
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: javlin]
      #22373 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:44 AM

Yep..GFS slows it to a crawl before landfall....

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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WeatherNLU
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: javlin]
      #22374 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:46 AM

I agree on the discussion at 11PM, amazingly written. What I don't understand is the track. Hurricanes just do not do what they are proposing. I don't know, it's just an odd looking track with the stop and the immediate movement in another direction. I am becoming more and more concerned here in New Orleans about a Florida east coast landfall and a movement towards the Gulf. I still am fairly confident that if it does get into the Gulf it's a Mobile eastward problem, but I just hate it when they get into the Gulf! I just hope something changes, because this is going to be one for the history books if it makes a US landfall, which at this point is almost a given.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22375 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:47 AM

Hugs the coast is a bad scenario. It won't loose as much punch or as fast as it heads up the coast. It's a matter of where it comes inland and how far inland.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22376 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:51 AM

Does anyone know it the dumped new data into the models tonight..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22377 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:52 AM

yup...should get into every 00Z and 12Z run now until landfall..

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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rjp
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #22378 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 AM

Wait, wait, cat 5 and mobile, right?! lol

In all seriousness, it seems as if the latest GFS run is almost a worst case scenario. Slowing down to almost a halt could cause massive flooding!

Anyone have any idea as to how fast it may go once it finally does come inland? Just wondering how much rain/wind we may see here in SC.

Well, this assumes the forecast goes something like its being predicted as of now. We all know this will probabbly change somewhat.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: wxman007]
      #22379 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 AM

Interesting that this is the first night in a couple nights that the 00Z did not move to the right and north..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22380 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:02 AM

anybody got a link to the GFS model?

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22381 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:02 AM

Well it does move it nw in about 24 hours but by 60 it slows and turns wnw towards melbourne.

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BillD
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22382 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:08 AM

NCEP Model Analyses and Forecasts

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cyclone_head
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22383 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:09 AM


Here you go

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_102s.gif


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joepub1
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22384 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:26 AM

This reminds me of how I felt about Charley's track for the three-four days prior to landfall. I felt that the NHC had it's basic movement about right. What they couldn't tell was where exactly would Charley cross the coastline. I think Frances presents the same problem: the track to the WPB area seems right. A slow down, the ridge builds back in and wins round one pushing her into Florida somewhere, but how far north she gets is the question. Ridge then retreats with help from low moving into the Plains, allowing her to go along the western edge, or north thru the state. But the entry point could be anywhere from WPB to Daytona, IMO. I think the NHC's track in a day or two will end up looking pretty much like what the track at 11pm looked like, with some changes maybe in location, but not how she gets there.

Since these storms have such a sick sense of humor, find the spot on the east central coast with the most trailer parks, and that's where the darn thing will go in. It always seems that way.


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john03
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Re: Tropical Models [Re: cyclone_head]
      #22385 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:29 AM

i guess a west turn at the end of the runs....
Tropical Models
seems since 11:00noon yesterday...models are moving more south and west...


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scottsvb1
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: cyclone_head]
      #22386 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:30 AM

Nogaps is in line with GFS but alittle faster. It does have the turn but is just sw of the GFS during the whole run. Landfall for GFS was near Melbourne and NOGAPS near Pt.St.Lucie. I should note since GFS is slower it shows it in 108 hours and NOGAPS near 84hours. CMC is off to the NE more again but does show the west turn nearing Jacksonville in 108 hours then heading due N into Savanah-Charleston. Though I disagree with this, it does help the other models out on 2 points. 1 they all agree with the tropical model suites a wnw or even just n of w window of movement will happen but where? near 26? or as much as 29? I think GFS has this right on target but just a tad faster but tad slower then the NOGAPS with landfall again Nero Vero beach-Melbourne, I will make my offical forcast again later in the day after the 12Z runs.

scottsvb. BTW wish there was radar in the Bahamas.


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scottsvb1
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22387 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:42 AM

Joepub your exactly right. Also since we always watch the models.. it shows wnw and then more nw during the 24-60 hour time frame. Lets watch the current movement. Though HPC says current movement is WNW, if you watch the radar its been just n of west more near 280dg instead of 290dg. It does make a difference in initizations on model runs.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22388 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:00 AM

Just logged on and trying to catch up.
Use your eye as much as the coordinates.
NHC/TPC Averages the coordinates, and they Are Not the hour by hour heading and speed!
A handheld GPS will work, as will several Java based programs on the web.
I'll see what I can find.


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Pam in Vero
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: joepub1]
      #22389 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM

I saw the aftermath of Charley what was interesting was a genltlemen from Tampa who was there to help said the temp there felt like a fall day of about 75 as if the front had already reached them.

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mikeG
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Re: recon [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22390 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM

URNT11 KNHC 010503
97779 05034 40224 66200 30500 12053 1004/ /3146
RMK AF861 1206A Frances OB 03

at 22.4n 66.2w
at 10,000ft...?
winds 61mph

URNT12 KNHC 010540
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/0540Z
B. 20 DEG 59 MIN N
67 DEG 48 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2561 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 148 DEG 123 KT
G. 054 DEG 15 NM
H. 939 MB
I. 10 C/ 3045 M
J. 22 C/ 3049 M
K. 5 C/ NA
L. CLOSED EYE
M. C22
N. 12345/7
O. .1 / 1 NM
P. AF861 1206A Frances OB 05
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 0535Z.


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Clark
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Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: MikeC]
      #22391 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:06 AM

One last hurrah on my end for the evening before I head to bed...

Introduction -- Frances continues to have an excellent satellite interpretation, with a well-defined CDO and excellent outflow on the west side of the storm. It is somewhat losing the outflow channel with the ULL around 23 N/45 W, but outflow remains pretty good on the east side of the storm. We're currently in the satellite eclipse for the night, though I don't expect much to have changed by the time we are out of the eclipse period. The upper low to the west of the storm near 24 N/79 W is weakening to some degree, but remains a distinct entity. The steering ridge remains in place both near and ahead of Frances. Recon is enroute and we should have a vortex message/center fix in the next hour or so.

Track Reasoning -- Frances remains on a just slightly north of due west track, a track that should continue for the forseeable future. I expect the storm to make landfall in the 84-96hr time frame (i.e. around Saturday) in between West Palm Beach and Miami.

As mentioned above, the ridge is firmly in place north of Frances, guiding the storm along at a pretty fast clip. A weaker ridge center is located over southern Georgia -- think of it as an extension of the ridge. The upper low to Frances' west is retrograding, but slowly. I think it's almost done retrograding, to tell the truth. The trough in the east central U.S. is becoming elongated east-west (partially as Gaston races out to sea) and slowing it's forward progression as a low forms in the Mississippi region. Another low is currently over western Texas and moving towards the east, but I don't think it is going to be a big factor in this case.

Frances should continue moving west or west-northwest ward in the short-term. There may be some slight jogs to the noth, particularly in the 24-48hr time frame, but the general west-northwestward motion should resume thereafter. I'm not sure I'm going to buy into the slowing at 96hr or so, but I do see why the models are doing what they are doing (and for what they forecast to evolve, it's a very valid response. I just don't agree with that evolution). The ridge is very strong and I don't see anything out there to really kick it. If anything, Gaston exiting is going to make it slightly stronger, while any energy from Canada is currently getting shunted eastward as well, not allowing the trough to dig any further. I don't see much of a reason for this to change, not until the storm makes landfall.

Using the Univ. of Wisconsin deep-layer flow analyses, one can see this. With such a strong storm, a deeper layer flow regime is going to steer the storm; with a weaker storm, I could see a turn, but that'd be a cat 2/3 storm or lower. The current deep-layer regime supports a more westerly - and faster - track through Florida. I favor the 850-250 and 700-200 mb analyses, both of which support this argument, and I don't see much of a reason for this to change over the next few days.

With that established, what does the storm do after landfall? The ridge may begin to erode with time, but should remain around in some manner. As the storm begins to weaken over land, it may get pulled slightly further to the north as well by the mean flow. (Note: the NHC considers the 1000-100mb mean flow to be a fairly good indicator of storm motion, according to a lecture by Richard Pasch. I don't think the entire atmosphere is a good indicator, though, just a subsection.) The storm should re-enter the Gulf at some point, give or take a few (+/- 15-25mi) miles of Tampa Bay. Everywhere from Biloxi to Apalachicola needs to watch for a recurving storm in the 5-6 day time frame; I'm trending towards Panama City, but that's more of a hunch right now.

Models -- Yes, this track is to the left of most of the models. If I've learned anything in classes and research, it's that the models are usually wrong to the left. I just don't think they are initializing these features well, and I'd like to see what they were able to do if all eastern and central U.S. NWS officers were launching 6hrly baloons for upper-air observations. Really, I can see why they are doing what they are doing, save for the extreme outliers, but I'm not in agreement at this time with those cases. If I'm off on the track forecast above, however, it will almost assuredly be to the right. It will be a really close call on all of the features, however. Note that through Frances' lifetime, the GFS has had the smallest track errors out to 120hr (the FSU Superensemble has a major advantage through 96hr over *all* models, though it falls slightly behind the GFS at 108 and 120hr). As the synoptic patterns and track come more under the influence of the midlatitudes, the global models should still do fairly well -- but 5 day track errors are still 150+ miles. Bottom line -- the models aren't out to lunch at all, but as with any guidance, use it as just that and add in your own analysis of the situation.

Intensity -- Frances remains a healthy cat 4 hurricane. Wind shear is low -- not negligible, but around 10m/s, more than sufficient for maintenance of the storm and some strengthening. (Aside -- useful for diagnosing shear are the UWisc/CIMSS wind shear analyses. You can get it by doing a google search or by going to the PSU/FSU Tropical Cyclone Model page.) The storm has about a day to make it to strengthen further, then a combination of an eyewall replacement cycle and slightly increased shear should level the intensity off for awhile. There will be another window for intensity increases closer to landfall, around 60-72hr, as waters in the Bahamas and off of Florida are very warm and shear is forecast to be very low. It's not inconcieveable to see Frances strengthen to about 150mph in the short-term, level off around 140-150 for a day or so, and then strengthen again to borderline 4/5 status as it nears landfall.

Further strengthening will likely be slightly inhibited by interactions with the Bahamas, albeit not to any large degree. There's also the chance for solely maintaining the storm until landfall...and the further north the storm makes landfall, the weaker it is likely to be. If the storm nears Cape Canaveral, it's likely to be a low end 4; Jacksonville, a 3; and further north, borderline 3. Bottom line -- a very dangerous hurricane is going to make landfall somewhere in the next few days. It should weaken some overland and only strengthen slightly if it makes it out over the Gulf before a second landfall. The northern Gulf coast should expect a cat 1/2 storm if this scenario unfolds.

Closing -- I'll add in this disclaimer: remember, the storm is a big storm, not a point. The entire Florida peninsula and panhandle, except for extreme SW Florida and the Keys, are likely to feel some impact of this storm. Regions further north in Georgia and the Carolinas are by no means out of the woods yet. This storm does not have very good guidance consensus yet, though I expect this to change some tomorrow. Everyone up and down the SE US and northern Gulf coast needs to follow this storm over the coming days -- no one is out of the woods yet. Tomorrow will be a pivotal day. Get some rest everyone, we'll see where this thing is going, how fast, and how strong in the morning.

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mikeG
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Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22392 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:07 AM

eye might be smaller....i remembered 30m..... 12hrs ago
but pressure.....same...


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scottsvb1
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: Clark]
      #22393 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:11 AM

Whats your point Dan? We all know its the overall run of at least 3 hours not hour to hour. I also posted that a few times over last 2 days. Nevertheless like Steve posted earlier tonight, they can also just say its moving just N of W as 290-295dg is WNW. Model show that then a turn to 310dg after 24 hours. I do think this will happen.

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Clark
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22394 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:18 AM

Um, I'm not sure what you're getting at there (and I'm not even Dan)...but for one, the storm isn't even moving 290 or 295 right now (the long term average is around 275). The post was just my thoughts -- take 'em or leave 'em. We'll see what happens, and I'm ready to eat crow if it doesn't turn out, but I won't be the only one around these (not the board, FSU) parts doing so if it doesn't pan out.

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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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scottsvb1
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22395 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:20 AM

Great info Clark. GN and me too, its 220am.

scottsvb


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scottsvb1
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22396 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM

LOL not you clark,,daniel above,,,heehe I think we both need sleep,,great job.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22397 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM

Let me plug the last few fixes in and I'll post the headings and speed from a GPS.
My point was, during Charley the storm Stopped it's westward movement and began a slight East track for 6 hours before NHC said it was turning toward the NNE.
The Recon fixes for Charley's turn started around 1200Z at his most western point. After 12Z all the longitudes were Less/ East of the 12Z fix. Hence movement East of due North, while the advisories kept saying Charley was headed North toward Tampa.
*Use the NHC Advisories for the Official forecast, but if your Eyes are telling you there is a track turn-It Is a track turn.**

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 01 2004 02:35 AM)


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mikeG
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Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22398 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 AM

URNT11 KNHC 010611
97779 06114 40198 69100 30500 31035 1006/ /3107
RMK AF861 1206A Frances OB 09

seems to still be at or around 10,000 ft flying
19.8n
69.1w


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jlauderdal
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: Clark]
      #22399 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 AM

Quote:

Um, I'm not sure what you're getting at there (and I'm not even Dan)...but for one, the storm isn't even moving 290 or 295 right now (the long term average is around 275). The post was just my thoughts -- take 'em or leave 'em. We'll see what happens, and I'm ready to eat crow if it doesn't turn out, but I won't be the only one around these (not the board, FSU) parts doing so if it doesn't pan out.





models are coming together...we will have a solid track no later than 11 am today and quite frankly this is a central south florida deal. +- 100 miles WPB.


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mikeG
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Re: recon [Re: jlauderdal]
      #22400 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:26 AM

MF211 M0676 MF123
OBS 01 AT 0504Z
OBS 08 AT 0535Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01208 10680 13780 11312 31089
02206 20682 23939 21110 31088
03205 30684 33017 30909 32061
04203 40686 43053 40909 33050
05201 50688 53079 50808 32046
06199 60689 63092 60908 30035
07198 70691 73103 71007 31035
MF209 M0679 MF104
OBS 01 AT 0545Z
OBS 07 AT 0610Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
RMK AF861 1206A Frances OB 10

max winds on first pass...
123
21.1n
67.6w
data readings almost 20mins ago...
pass 2 on the way...


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alan
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: jlauderdal]
      #22401 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:29 AM

New NOGAPS model out. Scary stuff for Florida.

Has the storm right off the WPB coast in 72 hours and exiting Tampa at 108 hours and getting to Appalachacola in 136 hours. That's two and a half days of constant rain in Florida, not to mention the wind. That would cause massive flooding throughout the state like I've never seen here.

Edited by alan (Wed Sep 01 2004 02:30 AM)


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john03
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interesting [Re: alan]
      #22402 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:42 AM

SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION

CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC

0257 UTC WED SEP 01 2004



010257Z...00Z MODEL CYCLE RUNNING SMOOTHLY AND ON

TIME. MODEL STATUS...NGM HAS COMPLETED/ETA OUT TO H+75

AND THE GFS STARTED ON TIME.



GFS RAOB RECAP...



TAE/72214 - SHORT REPORT TO 410MB.

MROC/78762 - TTBB NOT AVAILABLE.



ADDITIONALLY...NCEP RECEIVED 9 USAF DROPSONDE REPORTS

BTW 21Z-00Z. THEY WERE AROUND 64.3-66.2W/21.9-19.0N.

ALL DROP DATA LOOKED GOOD. BOTH THE USAF AND NOAA G-IV

HAVE BEEN TASKED WITH FLIGHTS BEGINNING 09/02/00Z THRU

09/02/12Z.



RAPID SCAN OPS FROM GOES E BEGAN AT 2026Z AND WILL LAST

UNTIL 09/05/0026Z TO HELP MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF HCN

FRANCES...GOES E SAT PIXS WILL BE N/A APPROX BETWEEN

0400Z/0600Z DURING THE ECLIPSE OF GOES E...THIS RSO WILL

BE N/A APPROX FROM 0800Z/1000Z DAILY DURING THE ECLIPSE

OF GOES W...ALSO...SUPER RAPID SCAN OPS WILL BE N/A WHILE

THIS RSO IS IN EFFECT...



WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Headings [Re: alan]
      #22403 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:45 AM

Aircraft Fixes changed to Degrees and decimals.
1730Z..20.32/ 64.88
1907Z..20.37/ 65.33 290degrees for 25.5nm
2057Z..20.53/ 65.75 306degrees for 25.5nm
2307Z..20.60/ 66.17 293degrees for 23.8nm
From 1730Z fix to 2307Z fix, the distance is 74.3nm with an Average heading of 297degrees.
So 297degrees is the average, but you can see the different point to point headings.
**These are Recon fixes and NOT the Official NHC fix. This was just and example of how the headings change from time to time and NHC uses an average for their Advisories.**

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 01 2004 03:25 AM)


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mikeG
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: alan]
      #22404 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:47 AM

sat goes e back up.....wow....lookin.... well different...sick?

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Bloodstar
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: alan]
      #22405 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 AM

Quote:

New NOGAPS model out. Scary stuff for Florida.

Has the storm right off the WPB coast in 72 hours and exiting Tampa at 108 hours and getting to Appalachacola in 136 hours. That's two and a half days of constant rain in Florida, not to mention the wind. That would cause massive flooding throughout the state like I've never seen here.




Sigh, I evac'd Clearwater to Atlanta when Charley was knocking, (I had planned the trip, Just left a little earlier than I intended)

But, I hate the idea of evac'ing again, Maybe I'll stay with some friends who live on the highest grounds.... And to think, All my friends were laughing at me because I was getting my empty gallon jugs and filling them with water and freezing the last few days.... heh.... now if I just had some sandbags....

Seriously, I don't know where this storm is going to go, if I could wishcast it away, I would. So instead, I just hope my friends down here will start taking this a little more seriously, particularly if the storm actually decides to make a cross state run from WPB to TPA. (And to think I have a friend who wants to come to here to avoid being in WPB... I"m in the A zone evac section, oops!)

Good luck people,
Be safe
Mark

PS. where could I find a more detailed explanation of the various models and their typical tendencies... is there a document (or set of documents that has this information? and if not, how difficult would it be to create one?)


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N. Brevard
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22406 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:52 AM

Thanks- that's me. 6 miles inland from the barrier island @ the Brevard/Volusia County line. Here's a stupid question... how far could the snapped off tops of 50' pines travel in 120 mph winds? g'night

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Bloodstar
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Stair stepping back west? [Re: MikeC]
      #22407 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:55 AM

After a 2 hour eclipse. The first sat pic seems to show an almost due west motion the last 2.5 hours. either it's doing that stair step fun, or the trend wnw has (Temporarily) trended back west. Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

The storm looks healthy enough, though warmer on the Northwest side... Perhaps an eyewall replacement?

Mark


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mikeG
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Re: eyewall replacement? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #22408 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:58 AM

Perhaps an eyewall replacement?

yes that seems that might be.


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alan
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: Bloodstar]
      #22409 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:00 AM

The models are a tricky subject. For one, there's just too many of them to keep track of. Second, some are designed to focus on tropical systems, others are aligned to more traditional weather.
The key with models is to not look at one and say that's the path it's going to take, although it is really exciting to see these models put out their thoughts. Instead, watch trends with the models and you'll get a pretty good idea of where the storm will go.


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Bev
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: N. Brevard]
      #22410 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:01 AM

... how far could the snapped off tops of 50' pines travel in 120 mph winds?

I can tell you from experience, during Charley we had a 4' diameter oak lifted completely out of the ground, tossed into the air and it landed 30 yards away in another tree.

Photo available upon request.

Best of luck for this storm. Frankly, I'm tired of them. Ready to move to Nebraska. :-) And I'm a 7th generation Floridian.

-Bev

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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mikeG
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Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22411 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:08 AM

URNT11 KNHC 010644
97779 06444 40198 66900 30300 21050 08079 /3107
RMK AF861 1206A Frances OB 11


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Steve
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Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22412 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:03 AM

This one is for rickonboat. Hey Rick, check out the 00Z run for the UK Met. Heh. It's a SFL hit followed by an "INTENSE" hit around Mobile Bay.

UK MET

As for the slowdown stall scenarios, that's bad stuff. That would promote some of the worst tidal flooding and storm surge in memory (both coasts).

Bastardi posted early (or is it late?) this morning. He's narrowed his landfall from St. Simeon Island to his prior ideas (NC). He just doesn't see the setup for the FL track, but it's almost like he's being stubborn. I guess I'm not one to talk since I have a landfall just a few hundreds miles south of his. He thinks the keys are 1) where Frances comes up in relation to the Bahamas (should it stay east, it's a farther up storm) and 2) Climo and the difficulty of hitting that part of Florida from the SE. Next setup (post Frances) should feature a backing trof (based on the ideas of Sondgra trending west with a retrograding ridge in the WPAC) and a high centered around 35-70/75 (Andrew setup). But there's nothing heavyduty in the pipeline so hopefully we'll escape that pattern.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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skwirt79
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Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas [Re: mikeG]
      #22414 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:15 AM

Hello. I've been reading this thread and comprehend approximately 72% of it. (If that). I just have a laymen's question for all of you who seem to know much more about this than i do.
I live in southern Central Florida. I also have a leaky roof. (compliments of Charley). What's the chance of having an even leakier roof now? In other words, are we going to get hit? All these acronym models are confusing.
Thanks for your help.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: UKMET [Re: mikeG]
      #22415 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:19 AM

Thanks Steve, I'm 154nm and 41 nm from the last 2 positions on the UKMET. That's really close. Like Frederick '79.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Charley Damage [Re: skwirt79]
      #22416 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:29 AM

You probably can't get the roof fixed before Frances, and depending on where she makes landfall it might be a waste of time and money. My suggestion would be to use "salvage covers". These can be anything that won't let water pass thru. The blue, brown and other color tarps they sell are okay. But that could get expensive. A roll or two of good 10mil or thicker polyproplene(sp) clear or black plastic will work and can be cut to fit each item.
*skwirt79 and others. We can send you Private Messages, if you will register* it's free!

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 01 2004 04:34 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 5AM updates [Re: danielw]
      #22417 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:39 AM

The 5AM Advisories are out and can be viewed under the "CurrentStorms" heading on the left sidebar.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.2 N... 68.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 01 2004 04:45 AM)


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Orlando
Unregistered




Re: 5AM updates [Re: danielw]
      #22418 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:06 AM

RIght now by the models it look like its going to go right over Orlando. Defiently not the news I wanted to hear about this monster.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Hebert's Box [Re: Orlando]
      #22419 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:18 AM

Here are the 2 web sites I got the information from with quotes exactly from each web site. Yes, it has to be a major in the box and at landfall in S. FL. Only 2 majors ever to hit S.FL. missed the box, Andrew barely and the '35 storm. And if it is a major to miss the box it also almost always misses S. FL.

1-It's called the Hebert Square. Almost every Atlantic storm that has struck Southeast Florida as a major hurricane has gone through this small box in the ocean, and almost every major storm, of at least 111 mph, that has bypassed it has missed South Florida.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/weather/special/storm/reports/070603box.html

2-Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade, Broward & Palm Bch Counties.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


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tracking [Re: Orlando]
      #22420 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:26 AM

One thing I have noticed is that almost every forecast has shown that the cain is suppossed to start a more northerly jaunt (45 degrees or so) but it has yet to do so. This is making me suspicious that the models have this cain too far north as many have suggested.

7 days before Charley hit I called for a Tampa hit. I was wrong by 40 miles. I couldn't get a feel on Frances until now - I think she is heading more south than we think - Miami to WBP. I think that the postor whose friend is retired from NOAA that posted here 3 days ago is going to be correct..

Miami to Ft. Meyers or WPB to Sarasota.. hooks right and up the Gulf.

Last night channel 10 news showed a graphic with the then current track heading towards JAX that Tampa would still see 85 - 100 mph winds. I think 110 - 130 is going to be more like it and if we see the west side of the storm and it slows to make it's turn, we might see some 10 feet of water here on the beaches too. I posted this earlier (thanks to Phil's help in me finding it) and will do so again - it shows the water surge in the Tampa area based on the size of the cain: http://nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/bathytopo/visual/slosh.mov (you will need quicktime to see it)

I'm boarding up and outta here. Stay safe everyone.


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Lila
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Re: 5AM updates [Re: Orlando]
      #22421 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:26 AM

New to the board. Can't sleep in Melbourne. How does Tampa look as an evac plan? If Frances exited FL there, what Category might it be expected to be, do you think?

(Mods, is this an appropriate place for this post?)


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Shawn W.
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Re: 5AM updates [Re: Lila]
      #22422 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:32 AM

Anybody have the 5AM track?

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
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Re: 5AM updates [Re: Shawn W.]
      #22423 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:43 AM

The NWS has not updated their 5am track as of yet. I found this on the net, you can take it for what it is worth:
5 am track Sept 1


Quote:

Anybody have the 5AM track?




--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
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Re: Hebert's Box [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #22424 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 AM

Very interesting and informative article. Thanks for posting it.


1-It's called the Hebert Square. Almost every Atlantic storm that has struck Southeast Florida as a major hurricane has gone through this small box in the ocean, and almost every major storm, of at least 111 mph, that has bypassed it has missed South Florida.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/weather/special/storm/reports/070603box.html

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User


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Re: 5AM updates [Re: LadyStorm]
      #22425 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:46 AM

Thanks. I'll watch my local news in about 15 minutes and let you know if this is correct.

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Chad
Verified CFHC User


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Re: 5AM updates [Re: LadyStorm]
      #22426 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:57 AM

That track does seem to reflect the 5am discussion...unfortunately.
Looking at a couple model and WV loops this morning doesn't give me much confidence in the SE US ridge causing a more northward direction any time soon.

Could someone explain the significance of concentric eyewalls?
Does it affect intensity only?


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
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Re: 5AM updates [Re: Chad]
      #22427 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:17 AM

Here's the url to a satellite loop where you can watch the storm's eye on its Florida approach:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_29/anis.html

--Lou


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: 5AM updates [Re: Chad]
      #22428 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:18 AM

Quote:

That track does seem to reflect the 5am discussion...unfortunately.
Looking at a couple model and WV loops this morning doesn't give me much confidence in the SE US ridge causing a more northward direction any time soon.

Could someone explain the significance of concentric eyewalls?
Does it affect intensity only?


VERY intense hurricane, 'healthy' and changing rapidly, possibly upward. The OUTER wall is the strongest according to the 5am NCH release I just received E-mail. If you are *anywhere* within the projected center 35 miles (or so) of center, consider evacuation unless you are well away from the ocean or bodies of water. Certainly, prepare for the worst as it will likely remain a III or low IV even in places well inland, such as Orlando.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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FLWaiting
Unregistered




Re: 5AM updates [Re: Ricreig]
      #22429 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:27 AM

The NRL just updated their track:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


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Posts: 150
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Re: 5AM updates [Re: FLWaiting]
      #22430 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:32 AM

The constant change of the projected path is driving me crazy.....:) Do any other Floridians feel the same way?


Quote:

The NRL just updated their track:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html




--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Orlando
Unregistered




Re: 5AM updates [Re: FLWaiting]
      #22431 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:34 AM

A Cat. 3 or 4 or Orlando?? Right now there saying it to be a cat. 2. Cat. 3 or 4 would be totally devastating here. Especially since all the trees have been weakened by Charley, its just not a good situation.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: Chad]
      #22432 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:34 AM

Here's a link that may help you on the eyewall question.
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/papers/MERS2004_26HURR.pdf
http://www.mindspring.com/~jbeven/intr0006.htm

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 01 2004 07:28 AM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


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Re: 5AM updates [Re: LadyStorm]
      #22433 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:40 AM

The track has changed very little since the 11pm track. Possibly moving a bit more toward the center of the state northward along I-75. This is better for Ormond Beach.
You have to expect the track to change slightly as the NHC adjusts it based on the most current information.

Everyone in Central and North Central Florida needs to prepare.
I fear flooding as well as wind damage from Frances.

Make your plans now rather than later.


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Chad
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
Re: 5AM updates [Re: LadyStorm]
      #22434 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:43 AM

Quote:

The constant change of the projected path is driving me crazy.....:)




You get used to it...I'm sure it will change much more before it's over.

--------------------
Chad
28.97
82.48


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Chad
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 22
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Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: danielw]
      #22435 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:50 AM

Interesting article...Thanks!

--------------------
Chad
28.97
82.48


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
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Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: Chad]
      #22436 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:57 AM

On Monday we were told that basically here in Central Florida that we would know something more definitive about the storm on Wednesday. Are we now in the time frame where the information is going to be relatively accurate, yet? After a hurricane gets past a CAT 2 at the size of Frances, it really does not matter whether the track changes left or right by a few tenths, but it does matter whether or not the actual land fall occurrs on one day or another. This allows evacuators to know when to leave or whether to hunker down for the duration. ( roads, directions and so forth.) The question remains, are we in the time window now, that the information is more reliable?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #22438 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:01 AM

Quote:

On Monday we were told that basically here in Central Florida that we would know something more definitive about the storm on Wednesday. Are we now in the time frame where the information is going to be relatively accurate, yet? After a hurricane gets past a CAT 2 at the size of Frances, it really does not matter whether the track changes left or right by a few tenths, but it does matter whether or not the actual land fall occurrs on one day or another. This allows evacuators to know when to leave or whether to hunker down for the duration. ( roads, directions and so forth.) The question remains, are we in the time window now, that the information is more reliable?




Yes confidence is starting to creep up, I'm going to wait until tonight to really figure, but look at the new article I just put up for more perspecitive on it.


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RockledgeRick
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Loc: Space Coast, FL
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #22439 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:08 AM

Great question. Many of us in Brevard Co. have reservations in hotels in the Tampa area. I'm having some reservations about those reservations. IF the latest track holds, Tampa is not in the clear. It could still get Hurricane Force winds, but would be on the "good" side of the eye, and the windspeed should be on the lower end. As you said, those tiny wobbles 50 miles either way make a big diffeence!

--------------------
Been through Agnes, Erin, Irene, Dennis, Floyd, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, TS Fay, Matthew


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Chad
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 22
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Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #22441 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:27 AM

I'd say that 100% confidence is reserved for when you're already in the storm.
Charley is a good recent example of the need to be wary until the last minute.

--------------------
Chad
28.97
82.48


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: 5AM updates [Re: LadyStorm]
      #22446 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:44 AM

Quote:

The constant change of the projected path is driving me crazy.....:) Do any other Floridians feel the same way?


Quote:

The NRL just updated their track:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html





Crazy, frustrated, a bit scared, certainly concerned, but having gone through Camille and of course Charley, I also know that worrying about it is futile and contraproductive. You and I and our neighbors need now to take ACTION. I have, hope it's enough (it never is as I rememberwell). Consider your surroundings and the robustness of your shelter...if in doubt, MOVE NOW, Friday and certainly Saturday will be too late. If the course chages and Orlando and the rest of Central Florida is spared, then it was a nice visit wherever you went, if your home is destroyed, a real possibility with CAT IV winds, well, at least your visit saved your life. Don't take too much time, coastal evacuations may jam the roads so bad you have no exit path if you wait. I wish you and the rest of my neighbors FARE-THEE-WELL my friends.

I personally am evacuating my trailer even though well inland (East Orlando) and am moving my belongings I can fit in a few trunk-loads to a 'real house', but a direct hit with CAT III or higher may not be enough, but it won't be from not having tried. I've evacuated 3 times previously from this tin box home of mine, and so far always had something to come back to and always wondering if I shuldn't have avoided the sweat and hassle of the evacuation....Not this time, I'm not wondering and I hope I lose the bet, but this time, the effort ahead of time will have been worth it. I'll be willing to bet *this* time, it is a good decision.

Charley taught many of the NON-MAJOR STORM survivors like Andrew, Hugo, Camille and of course Donna sruvivors what even a CAT 1-II hurricane can really do to a major city. If there is a God, and I think there is, He sent Charley to us to 'educate' the millions of Floridians who haven't been exposed to a real tropical event before, and those that had become jaded or ignored storms in the past. Most, learned the lesson so this time, when it is really, really needed, many will help ensure their own and family survival.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: 5AM updates [Re: Chad]
      #22449 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:52 AM

Quote:

Quote:

The constant change of the projected path is driving me crazy.....:)




You get used to it...I'm sure it will change much more before it's over.


I'm 62 on Saturday (some birthday present, huh?) been through many major and minor storms from the 40's, 50's and Camille, Donna, Betsy and others, and I have NEVER gotten used to anything about a hurricane, forecasts, models, the wind, noise, flooding, and of course worst of all, after the storm for the affected areas.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ed Geary
Unregistered




Re: 5AM updates [Re: Ricreig]
      #22456 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:50 AM

Happy Birthday Richard!

I'll be 50 on Friday (9/3/54). Yep, we are getting a heck of a present!

Good luck to all.

Ed Geary
Clermont


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Chad
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
Re: 5AM updates [Re: Ricreig]
      #22458 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:54 AM

Very true...you never get used to the storms themselves.
(My first was Donna)

--------------------
Chad
28.97
82.48


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


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GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Chad]
      #22459 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:03 AM

The latest 06Z models show a nudge to east a little which would keep the eyewall offshore until GA/SC. It could be a fluke run, but we shall see.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Posts: 489
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Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22460 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:07 AM

Also looks like there is a more N-NW track in the recent movement. I don't think FL is yet a lock.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ricreig
User


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Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22464 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:10 AM

Quote:

The latest 06Z models show a nudge to east a little which would keep the eyewall offshore until GA/SC. It could be a fluke run, but we shall see.


Yes, but if you live in the current forecast area, you should ignore 'minor' changes in the forecast and all of the models...minor changes won't help you much and depending on the change, may hurt even worse. Models are neat tools, but when the wind starts blowing, you don't want to be saying "...but the UKMET says this is just a shower....It *Can't* be the hurricane!!!" No, plan for the forecast, hope for the models that show it is a fish, but ACT on the forecast!

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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kelcot
Unregistered




Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Ricreig]
      #22467 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:22 AM

hey all you guys in Fl! (I'm in Atl but grew up in SFL)- anyway-
when you are prepairing to hunker down, don't forget the simple things! Blankets, pillows, manual can opener, first aid kit, fire extinguisher, medications, cell phone and car charger, and a few pots and pans, fill up bathtubs, sinks, etc. (An ice chest full of beer is always nice to) Ya'll be careful down there!!!


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Posts: 489
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Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: kelcot]
      #22468 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:46 AM

12Z models out. Looks like more movement to the west:

http://hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22470 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:55 AM

The GFS 12Z will not be out for a couple more hours..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Ricreig
User


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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: kelcot]
      #22473 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:15 AM

Quote:

hey all you guys in Fl! (I'm in Atl but grew up in SFL)- anyway-
when you are prepairing


Hi...you guys up there in the ATL area may just get some of the leftover pieces we Floridians can't absorb. Some of the forecast tracks point the pieces right into your neck of the woods, and we all know what hills do to rain....yeah, flooding...be cool, be safe and pray for us in the middle of it all. Can't hurt, might help...even if you are agnostic

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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HCW
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Posts: 287
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Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Ricreig]
      #22474 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:23 AM

I sure hope the ukmet is wrong cause I don't want to watch a storm go up Mobile bay

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

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LI Phil
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NEW THREAD! [Re: HCW]
      #22475 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:25 AM

Guys, Mike's had a new thread up for a while, you should post on that one!

From John C - This Thread is now locked go to most recent thread to make new posts. Thank You

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by John C (Wed Sep 01 2004 10:32 AM)


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