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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
21.3N 93.0W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
N at 6 mph
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MapMaster
Unregistered




Re: Next storm... [Re: Katie]
      #38595 - Wed Jul 06 2005 10:17 PM

Meanwhile... look off Africa...someone asked me about the "E" storm this am, and I said, NO WAY...well, take a look off Africa and tell me what YOU think.....

MM

Hello NHC, there are things going on besides Dennis....and you KNOW this would be all over the TWO otherwise....


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Lysis
User


Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: 5pm Discussion [Re: nl]
      #38596 - Wed Jul 06 2005 10:17 PM

the entire Gulf Coast is in the Cone of Death (new official name). Understand that we are still very far away at this juncture. If Dennis tracks close enough to the west coast of the peninsula, yes, central florida would recieve a significant impact. However, as I said before, we have no clue what will ultimatly happen.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Wed Jul 06 2005 10:19 PM)


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Larry
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
Re: Next storm... [Re: MapMaster]
      #38597 - Wed Jul 06 2005 10:20 PM

That is a monster of a wave- hopefully it is too low to cross, but I said that about Dennis too

BTW a new thread has been posted.


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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: 5pm Discussion [Re: nl]
      #38598 - Wed Jul 06 2005 10:21 PM

Yeah, that means we're pretty much in for at least tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding - as this thing goes north of your latitude and winds shift from SE to SW. If this model path verifies - of course. If it comes even closer to the coast...well.....u can fill in the blanks. But of course, if you believe in the GFS or UKMET models, it may actually be a nice weekend.

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Lysis
User


Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: 5pm Discussion [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38599 - Wed Jul 06 2005 10:23 PM

Well, the GFS has an alternate acronym, one that we could not repeat here.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Wed Jul 06 2005 11:08 PM)


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: 5pm Discussion [Re: Lysis]
      #38600 - Wed Jul 06 2005 10:25 PM

i just have a feeling we are gonna get another charlie, just i bad feeling. but im prepared we are working on our roof today and we have all the supplies. just think i was gonna go too bush gardens monday.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: 5pm Discussion [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38601 - Wed Jul 06 2005 10:26 PM

Quote:

Anyone check out the latest FSU superensemble (MM5) run (12 Z) - its running now and has a plotted position through 96 hours - at 96 hrs it has the center of Dennis about 100 m west of Clearwater - it's windfield graphic shows 48-64 knot winds pretty much along the west coast of Florida from Naples to St Marks.

You can find the link at:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/




That is NOT the Superensemble...its just the MM5...they are two different models.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: 5pm Discussion [Re: wxman007]
      #38606 - Wed Jul 06 2005 10:35 PM

Thanks for the clarification

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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: Path of Dennis [Re: wxman007]
      #38612 - Wed Jul 06 2005 10:45 PM

So, what's your opinion on the path of this storm? - looks like PC is gonna be pretty close to where it makes landfall. I know it's early, but has Cindy weakened the ridge enough to allow a more northward turn (CMC model) or do u think the ridge will only temporarily erode and build back strong as the GFS seems to latch onto?

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ontheroad
Unregistered




Re: Path of Dennis [Re: ronnie_b]
      #38882 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:36 PM

Interesting information out of Miami office...

AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

WILL BE NEEDING TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. EASTERLY FLOW
HAS KICKED IN AS PLANNED WITH PWAT AT 1.6 INCHES. THIS WOULD
INDICATE HIGHEST CHANCES OF TSRA REMAIN TO BE FOR INTERIOR/W CST
ZONES. ALSO WINDS AS MENTIONED HAVE INCREASED TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES SO THAT LOOKS GOOD AS WELL. HOWEVER...SOME
HEADLINES WILL BE FORTHCOMING AS TPC HAS INDICATED THEY WILL BE
POSTING A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES
(MIAMI-DADE AND W COLLIER COUNTIES) AND THIS WILL BE DONE ON THE
LATE MORNING UPDATE. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST POSTS
BEFORE UPDATING.


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