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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


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Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Dean [Re: danielw]
      #77373 - Tue Aug 21 2007 05:04 AM

Could 92L be forming off of Dean? Thats what it looks like to me

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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Posts: 2313
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #77374 - Tue Aug 21 2007 05:05 AM

Links

Eyewall coming into focus now
On Cancun's Radar


TWC IR, with lightning overlay


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dem05
User


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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Dean [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #77375 - Tue Aug 21 2007 05:50 AM

Hi there,

92L is likely not forming off of Dean...If anything, the Ridge over Dean and the energy coming from the outflow of Dean is likely strengthing the ULL the is currently south of Puerto Rico. That upper level low is providing strong easterly winds over 92L right now. On the last Water Vapor analysis, I noticed a lot of 30kt wind barbs moving over 92L. 92L is also moving at a decent clip, but these ULL winds are a bit to strong right now.

Over 92L, there is a squeeze playgoingon between the ULL south of PR and the ridge to the WNW of 92L that is helping to steer Dean. That is probably helping to amplify the Upper Level Winds a bit too.

Something to potentially watch for...Dean will weaken over the Yucatan, then weaken significantly over mainland Mexico in 36 hours...At that time, the surface energy being transferred into the Upper Levels of Dean (The ridge over him) will weaken also. As a result, the risdge over dean will likely weaken too. Downstream domino effects will probably mean the ULL south of Puerto Rico will weaken also. If so, the shear will be on the decrease, and that is probably art of why the models...as well as the 10:30PM NHC TWO call for more favorable conditions over 92L in the coming days...

As for tonight...some pop-up T-storms around 92L, but nothing significant...92L has quite a ways to go before being a "Tropical Depression Candidate" right now...Worth watching though as things may change in those respects during the coming days.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


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Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
oh man... [Re: MikeC]
      #77376 - Tue Aug 21 2007 06:05 AM

055330 1833N 08651W 6971 02336 9067 +211 +134 073014 018 020 003 03


906.7 MB if not lower. Horrible time for the bottom to fall out.


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #77377 - Tue Aug 21 2007 06:08 AM

Recon's made it there -- extrapolated pressure of 905mb from the pass with many estimates in the 905-907mb range. No idea why NHC went with 911mb at 2am...your guess is as good as mine. I await a vortex message and dropsonde ob for more details.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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dem05
User


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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: oh man... [Re: Doombot!]
      #77378 - Tue Aug 21 2007 06:18 AM

We will be out of satellite blackout on the Goes East pretty soon. I think we will see our first image around 2:45 (there abouts before or after). We are gonna be seeing a storm that is very close and quickly bearing down on the coast shortly. The pressure drop, if correct, is an extremely unfortunate sign that Dean is stronger that what we saw before the Goes East Satellite blackout.

FYI...in case you did not know, the Goes satellite blacks out at this time of night to concerve power while the solar panels are not receiving sunlight (Call it an earth eclipse on the satellite).

Edited by dem05 (Tue Aug 21 2007 06:29 AM)


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neospaceblue
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 28
Loc: Newport News, VA
Re: oh man... [Re: dem05]
      #77379 - Tue Aug 21 2007 06:36 AM

909 mb, that's nice................*waits a couple seconds*......................HOLY CRAP! 909 MB! THIS THING IS STRONGER THAN Ivan!

--------------------
I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)


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Valandil
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 14
Loc: Hamburg, Germany
Re: Dean [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #77380 - Tue Aug 21 2007 09:16 AM

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...

There you have it, at 165mph and 906mbar. I'm hoping for the best for all those how have to endure this storm....


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Dean [Re: Valandil]
      #77381 - Tue Aug 21 2007 09:24 AM

God help the people of Mexico, this is going to be just total destruction. I think the winds might have been 170 plus at landfall given some of the things I am seeing. I just went to Costa Maya in February and visited some of the Ancient Ruins. Glad I did, cause they likely won't be there soon.

"REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 330 AM CDT. THIS
LOCATION IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO"

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Posts: 429
Re: Dean [Re: Valandil]
      #77382 - Tue Aug 21 2007 09:24 AM

I pray that they can keep people out of harms way in the Yukatan. Sometimes we forget when watching these things that thousands will loose their homes and even worse many will be killed. A Cat 5 hitting land is almost total destruction.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Dean [Re: Valandil]
      #77385 - Tue Aug 21 2007 11:01 AM

Final report from landfall:

(I'm just quoting stuff from the 5am discussion)

Wind:
* A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST NORTH OF THE EYE.
* MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124 KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT.
* A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING.

BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT.

Presure
A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.


SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE.
* THE 906 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE...
* AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF
1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO.
* DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE Andrew OF 1992.


Also, the last recon reported (08:14:00Z):
"CONTINUOUS LIGHTING AND SEVERE TURBULENCE SOUTH EYEWALL"


-----
Wind: If 178kt was measured, even with a 10% step down (and at 150 feet, 10% may be too large), that is 160kts (184mph), or 15kts faster than the surface value they used.

The 145kt value works out to 165mph.


Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Aug 21 2007 11:13 AM)


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