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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
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Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: danielw]
      #80841 - Mon Jul 21 2008 01:03 AM

The NHC uses previous fixes as the movement...for example... lets say its moving N but by 2am its moving NW....well the NHC will post up movement N at such and such miles per hour from the last statement. So another words...its the previous 3 or 6 hrs (matters on when the last statement was released) on its movement.

Charley was moving NNW from the 8am-11am (although we saw a wobble to the NE (which it was actually a turn NE) they trackulated the point from 8am-11am it was a NNW movment even though it already started a NE turn.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: scottsvb]
      #80843 - Mon Jul 21 2008 01:45 AM Attachment (200 downloads)

well recon found the surface center on cristobal and a pressure of 1005mb... but strongest winds were 85 miles to the sw of center... recon hasn't hit the mid-upper low to the se of the center

Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 5:09:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 35°29'N 74°38'W (35.48N 74.63W)
B. Center Fix Location: 53 miles (85 km) to the ENE (73°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 26kts (~ 29.9mph)

it took the radiosonde about 2 mins from 5,000ft to hit the water at 0512z... winds at 157ft were 12mph in the center.

Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jul 21 2008 01:51 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80845 - Mon Jul 21 2008 02:04 AM

Watch the north and westward advance of the outer cloud bands from 94L / Dolly.
1245Z 845am EDT Sunday


2245z-645PM EDT Sunday


0415Z-1215AM EDT Monday


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Storm Hunter
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Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: danielw]
      #80846 - Mon Jul 21 2008 02:11 AM

anyone see the TWO that just came out? wow

THE National Hurricane Center IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED
NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.
(seems like someone is on the same idea as us.. )

A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
AFRICA A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER
IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


by the way... got to the main page on the NHC and look at africa.. its already in shaded in orange.. lol

Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jul 21 2008 02:29 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80847 - Mon Jul 21 2008 02:16 AM

aww... here we go.. From Dolly's adv. 2am pkg

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN
MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Beaumont, TX
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Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80848 - Mon Jul 21 2008 02:20 AM

Interesting to note the mention in the 2 that there are indications Dolly may be reforming the center a little to the north of the previous
track. If so, I think we will see a shift in the cone more to the right tomorrow. It will depend on what she does once she gets into the Gulf.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80850 - Mon Jul 21 2008 02:22 AM

Man,this is going to be a very bad year.Doily looks to be a real threat to anyone along the gulf coast mainly Texas.Warm SST's in the gulf along with low shear are not a good sign.This is just crazy for this time of year.I am almost speechless.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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scottsvb
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Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #80851 - Mon Jul 21 2008 02:30 AM

Dolly will get pulled more WNW now that 1 its over land and wont strengthn much and also the upper low to its SSW....by time the upper low moves out and weakens...the ridge over the gulf states will weaken and let Dolly regain a NW movement towards NE MX and maybe extreme southern TX.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #80852 - Mon Jul 21 2008 02:33 AM

I hate to add to the mix of bad news but the Model Discussion is out. Here are the Dolly related excerpts.
Full text at: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
114 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

VALID JUL 21/0000 UTC THRU JUL 24/1200 UTC
...T.S. DOLLY...

AVAILABLE SFC DATA SUGGESTS THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION... LOWEST SFC PRESSURES ARE LOWER THAN DEPICTED
IN THE GFS ANALYSIS.

MODEL TRENDS...
...T.S. DOLLY...

THE 00Z NAM TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE 18Z RUN BUT THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED NWD TREND OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS. THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ESPECIALLY IN THE PAST 12 HRS THE
GFS HAS TRENDED NWD WITH DOLLY THRU F36 EARLY TUE. AFTER THAT
TIME TRENDS DIMINISH TO THE POINT THAT GFS RUNS CONVERGE ALONG THE
WRN GULF COAST BY F60 EARLY WED... AND THEN THE 00Z GFS TRENDS A
LITTLE SWD OF MOST PREVIOUS RUNS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...T.S. DOLLY...

THE GFS/NAM SHOW SIMILAR HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM THRU F24 LATE MON.
AFTER THAT TIME THE NAM TRENDS STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND
EVENTUALLY FARTHER NWD AS WELL. ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WRN
GULF COAST THE NAM MAINTAINS A NWWD MOTION WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE COAST. THE NAM TRACK IS ON THE NRN EDGE OF 18Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUT FITS MORE COMFORTABLY WITHIN THE SPREAD
OF 21Z SREF MEMBERS. THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/12Z ECMWF ARE S OF
THE NAM TRACK TO VARYING DEGREES BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES
THE WRN GULF COAST. CONSULT LATEST TPC ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS
FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING T.S. DOLLY.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: danielw]
      #80853 - Mon Jul 21 2008 02:39 AM

well... going to be an interesting morning with the next crew of guys coming into the NHC office... wonder if they called the boss to let him know what's going on? and based on doppler trends.. i say that dolly would enter the GOM just north of Tizmin in 3-6 hrs... and that would most likely have to shift the forecast path to the right on Dolly in the short term...

Looks like will know in a few mins if Dolly made landfall or not.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMUN.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hugh
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Re: NHC Storm Movement [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80854 - Mon Jul 21 2008 06:51 AM

Morning satellite images (infrared since the sun is not up yet!) suggest that Dolly is now moving almost due west... if Dolly exists, that is. Radar from Cancun indicates that the big ball that is in the Yucatan Channel has no circulation, so if one exists, it's very disorganized.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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