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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: LoisCane]
      #82832 - Sun Aug 24 2008 07:16 PM

The long-range San Juan radar shows the northern extent of 94L, and it does show a bit of a bend to the rain bands, but not much. It'll be very interesting to see what the recon finds.

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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craigm
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Hugh]
      #82833 - Sun Aug 24 2008 07:37 PM Attachment (242 downloads)

94L building some extremely strong heights. These cloud tops are approaching
-80C to -90C. Tells me not a lot of shear going on.

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Hugh
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: craigm]
      #82834 - Sun Aug 24 2008 08:02 PM

The water vapor loop did not show shear earlier today, which is the last time I looked at it.
Cloud tops have been oscillating in height it appears, but are still pretty high.
If there is a closed low, I'd say it's right near the big blowup of convection, too... meaning it's really only a matter of time before TD 7, and ultimately Gustav, is born.

Just read the 8pm TWO, and the NHC says there is no sign of a closed circulation at this time.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 24 2008 08:03 PM)


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johnnylightning
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: weathernet]
      #82835 - Sun Aug 24 2008 08:19 PM

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

Sorry about that.
The radar site is at the link above. It is a java loop site. This is Netherlands Antilles Radar.
Johnny

--------------------
Semper Fi

Edited by johnnylightning (Sun Aug 24 2008 08:26 PM)


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metwannabe
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Hugh]
      #82836 - Sun Aug 24 2008 08:36 PM

Déjà vu….this is very reminiscent of how Fay started. It appears to the have a good mid level circulation, at least on sat presentation. Now just waiting for LLC to form and if it does the environment certainly appears to be conducive for development.

Potentially another long week ahead…….

(man the GFDL likes to paint ominous picture!!)

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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shewtinstar
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: metwannabe]
      #82837 - Sun Aug 24 2008 09:23 PM

Speaking of Fay, is she moving back out into the Gulf or is it my eyes playing tricks on me????

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weathernet
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: metwannabe]
      #82838 - Sun Aug 24 2008 09:44 PM

What ever happened to the new..., er old invest? Looks to me like a whole lot of turning around 13N and 33W, with but only a tad of convection seemingly in the middle of it all. Has got the ITZ all fired up due south of it. Meanwhile, looks like some E. Atlantic trough, just off Africa has been impacting it, but as this moves westward, may be something to once again watch.

94L DOES look like Fay; at least in the odd way that a fairly well established mid level took shape, but just wants to take its sweet time in working down to the surface. If 94L is anything like Fay, than it won't have any interest in forming until encountering land (kidding). Worse part is that the longer it takes to establish itself at the surface, than more than likely the farther west it'll go. GFDL really does go nuts with it. Lets see if any other models jump on the bandwagon. I think the EURO takes some system across Cuba and lookin for a couple Mojito's - visits South Beach, Fl! Then again, where the EURO has been wrangling with wanting to develop "something" and bringing it towards the Greater Antilles for days, its been jumping around a bit, so not to consistant. Then again, we don't yet have anything for the models to really latch onto yet.

Finally, "ex-95L" is still around. Not looking at all impressive, but am actually more focused on the area somewhat southeast of it around 18N. Not sure, but thought that I had noticed earlier today some level of loose vorticity in the cloud fragments. Was no convection to speak of, but now there is some firing up.

And now the 18Z GFS wants to bring something new off the African coast in about 168 hrs., and then quickly wind it up......busy times ahead.


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Hugh
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: weathernet]
      #82839 - Sun Aug 24 2008 10:01 PM

I too have a BAD sense of deja vu. Fortunately, Fay seemed to go around us here, we did get some light rain, but no wind at all, and not a lot of rain. 94L looks almost like a carbon-copy, both in appearance and in models. Yeah, there are some differences, but not many that I can see, except that in this case, the low that could ultimately drive what could be Gustav northward into the Gulf is Fay rather than an ULL. Long-range San Juan radar now shows a circulation, and the satellite loop is very impressive for an unclassified system. If it holds together overnight, we'll be tracking Gustav tomorrow night in all likelihood.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: metwannabe]
      #82840 - Sun Aug 24 2008 10:09 PM

Quote:

Déjà vu….this is very reminiscent of how Fay started. It appears to the have a good mid level circulation, at least on sat presentation. Now just waiting for LLC to form and if it does the environment certainly appears to be conducive for development.

Potentially another long week ahead…….

(man the GFDL likes to paint ominous picture!!)





I going out on a limb... i think i see some westerly winds there south of 94L... Someone may be close to being a TD... much better looking on sats this evening... if trend holds we could have a TS by the time recon gets in there 2morrow

hmm.... loop current?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 24 2008 10:13 PM)


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allan
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82841 - Sun Aug 24 2008 10:25 PM

It's definitely an impressive system and with the TCHP up there, anticyclone, and less dry air, I smell a classic 2004/2005 hurricane. Models are pretty spread out and until this actually finds a closed low, models will continue to diverge in many directions. Many things can happen with this system and it's important that everyone on the Gulf Coast watches this system as it could rapidly organize into a very dangerous situation. Fays weakening, is on land, but very broad, saw a green sky while riding to Starbucks from work which led me to believe a possible tornado was forming, none reported though.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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weathernet
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"Son of Fay" [Re: allan]
      #82842 - Sun Aug 24 2008 11:46 PM

Sorry about the one line post, but just taking another look at satellite this evening, and JSL and Rainbow resolutions lead me to believe that there certainly appears to be a low level circulation. Not gaining too much latitude.........yet.

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LoisCane
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Re: "Son of Fay" [Re: weathernet]
      #82843 - Sun Aug 24 2008 11:57 PM

This is not Fay and it is not in my thoughts how Fay started or WHERE she started. It is far to the south and will get further west unless that model that pulls her due north gets it's way.

As for Fay... cannot believe this storm refuses to just rain itself out and yeah looks like she is drifting south towards open water but looks can be deceiving.

What does worry me is that water temps are hot wnw of her and that is where NRL has her progged to go for now. Without accurate recon we cannot get accurate models.

Shear has lessened and I also believe the ULL off the E Coast is going to retreat and has started to do so.

So...what is the big steering impetus here.. it also doesn't have an ULL attached like Fay did that made it easy to see where it would go.

Models are inconsistent for a reason.

If this storm is as round and together with high tops still blowing it can develop a lot faster than Fay or Dolly, so please keep that in mind.

This is the G storm.. not a remake or a sequel and probably going to get a lot stronger.

Intensity worries me on this one not just track.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #82845 - Mon Aug 25 2008 05:12 AM

Looks as if 94L is on track for an upgrade soon. A STDS (Special Tropical Disturbance Statement) was issued a short while ago and a part of it...
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM THE
NETHERLAND ANTILLES INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

Meanwhile what is left of Fay is still causing problems. Still drawing from the GOM prompting a tornado watch to the east to Panama City and some heavy rain feeding back into the FL panhandle as well as points west.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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cieldumort
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #82846 - Mon Aug 25 2008 05:41 AM

Just a few items to add to what has already been said of 94L -
94L may not be as much like Fay as one might think:

Based on surface reports and microwave images, it appears that 94L has a better chance of already having a sufficiently tight closed surface circulation, and not merely an incredibly impressive mid-level low. Additionally, it is unlikely that 94 gets upgraded over land.. and to that point, also much more likely that 94L spends a good deal more time over warm water while it is still getting its act together than Fay did.

94 is already land-locked. Fay had a brief moment in time where she still could have scooted on out to sea. This will not be the case with 94. If indeed it is our next TC, as looks probable, it already has nowhere to go but on to one or more landfalls.

As for looking to models right now - forget them. None of the most recent model runs initialize 94L in much of any worthwhile way, if at all. Listen to what the NHC has to say. If you can't resist following along with the models, at least wait until tomorrow's runs are in. By then they may have had time to digest some accurate info and process it a little better.


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Raymond
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last microwave pass [Re: cieldumort]
      #82847 - Mon Aug 25 2008 08:15 AM

The last microwave pass looks very interesting. There is a very strong curved convective band and an eye-like feature forming in the center. Wouldn´t be very surprising to have a TD or even a TS already. And conditions seem to be conducive for strengthening, even for phases of rapid intensification not far away.

Edited by Raymond (Mon Aug 25 2008 08:16 AM)


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M.A.
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: cieldumort]
      #82848 - Mon Aug 25 2008 08:21 AM

Looking at the visible sat this morning, it is pretty clear that we have a low level circulation developed with 94l. I have not looked when recon is scheduled, but would expect depression status to be skipped and straight to Gustav. Nice banding features are present in the Southern portion and outflow becoming evident on the northern side. No idea of where it will go, so I'm not going to venture a guess at this time.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: M.A.]
      #82849 - Mon Aug 25 2008 08:41 AM

aggree with most everyone on here... when recon gets in there around lunch time.. we should have a moderate TS i would think... been dealing with left over fay this morning.. tornado watch box... with warnings all over.. been a long morning already.... amazing the low level winds screamin in off the GOM... lots OF THUNDER and lightning!

Think visible sats this morning helped them issue the special tropical statement?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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flanewscameraman
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Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82850 - Mon Aug 25 2008 08:47 AM

As the track evolves, and depending when they declare 94L a depression or storm, does it appear that this will be an issue for South Florida in the upcoming days? I am curiouis to see everyones thoughts on this. I am wondering if it may even track east of us here

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