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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #90601 - Sun Jul 17 2011 04:22 PM

It's very likely that Advisories on Tropical Depression 2 will begin at 4 PM EDT.
Recon found winds above tropical storm force at flight level and on the surface. We are just waiting on NHC to say it's a depression.
Left sidebar has updated and that I believe is automatic.

ATCF coding. It's a duck/ depression.


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Hugh
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: danielw]
      #90602 - Sun Jul 17 2011 04:25 PM

Quote:

It's very likely that Advisories on Tropical Depression 2 will begin at 4 PM EDT.
Recon found winds above tropical storm force at flight level and on the surface. We are just waiting on NHC to say it's a depression.
Left sidebar has updated and that I believe is automatic.
ATCF coding. It's a duck/ depression.




If they found winds > t.s. force at the surface, it won't be T.D. 2, it'll be T.S. Bret.

New model runs seem to take Bret directly out to sea, though. So much for much-needed rain.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: Hugh]
      #90603 - Sun Jul 17 2011 04:29 PM

Good point Hugh. The coding has replaced INVES with TWO. Would that be TD 2 or Storm 2?

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: danielw]
      #90604 - Sun Jul 17 2011 04:32 PM

TWO would indicate that it's a depression - which would indicate that they aren't going to listen to recon reports of T.S. winds at the surface. Or that they haven't confirmed the winds yet?

Finally see a vortex from Google Earth (1010mb), but without T.S. winds (pretty weak, in fact, 27.5 mph).

Update: Advisory is out on TWO. No threat to U.S.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Jul 17 2011 04:37 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
98L now Tropical Depression Two [Re: Hugh]
      #90605 - Sun Jul 17 2011 04:38 PM

The Weather Channel is reporting NHC upgraded 98L to Tropical Depression 2.
Advisories begin shortly.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL022011
2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2011

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 17 2011 04:43 PM)


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BillD
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Re: 98L now Tropical Depression Two [Re: danielw]
      #90606 - Sun Jul 17 2011 05:20 PM

New vortex message from recon... pressure down to 1009 and max surface winds at 45kts.

URNT12 KNHC 172108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011
A. 17/20:54:00Z
B. 27 deg 30 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. NA
D. 45 kt
E. 041 deg 25 nm
F. 060 deg 43 kt
G. 041 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 18 C / 178 m
J. 24 C / 178 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 20:45:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

Bill


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 98L now Tropical Depression Two [Re: BillD]
      #90608 - Sun Jul 17 2011 05:49 PM

There is now a 6 degree difference between the Outside Eye temperature and the Inside Eye temperature.
That's a bit of a flag to me. Indicates the system is trying to close up the center.

The difference between the inside temperature and outside temperature is somewhat indicative of how well the vacuum is working. .


Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 17 2011 05:53 PM)


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WeatherNut
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: MikeC]
      #90610 - Sun Jul 17 2011 07:55 PM

Well, they have upgraded it...It's now Brett

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Form off Florida, Likely No Threat to Mainland [Re: MikeC]
      #90614 - Sun Jul 17 2011 09:11 PM


Another decent satellite and radar source can be found here: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php

On the left hand pane, click the 1 or 2km product link, and then click the geographic bullet of interest. There is an embedded radar from the Bahamas that shows the cyclonic reflectivity of Brett.


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danielwAdministrator
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Tropical Storm Bret [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #90615 - Mon Jul 18 2011 08:25 AM

Really nice? outflow being established over Bret.



Bret is being pushed slowly to the east by the ridge moving in from the north. Seen in the below picture as the orange tinted dry air. To the east of Bret appears to be an upper level low, ULL.



Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 18 2011 08:50 AM)


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adam s
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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US [Re: MikeC]
      #90616 - Mon Jul 18 2011 09:56 AM

Does anyone think Brett will become a hurricane later today? It is really looking good on radar.

Edited by adam s (Mon Jul 18 2011 09:56 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening [Re: adam s]
      #90617 - Mon Jul 18 2011 10:05 AM

NHC probabilities for Bret becoming a hurricane are around 20% thru Noon EDT Tuesday.
Based on the latest NHC Advisory.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/180835.shtml

Outflow is increasing over the storm and early indications of a possible equatorial outflow channel have just begun to appear in the visible satellite photos.


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weathernet
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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US [Re: adam s]
      #90618 - Mon Jul 18 2011 11:59 AM

Given the small size and stature of Bret, and given a short term relaxing of upper air conditions, it would not at all seem unrealistic for some renewed bursting of the convection to aid inflow enough for the system to aquire short term Hurricane status. These "micro-canes" tend to be able to wind up ( and just as easily fall prey ) to minute and local conditions.

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US [Re: weathernet]
      #90619 - Mon Jul 18 2011 03:24 PM

Is The BAMD outlier track too far off to be credible? Did the system wobble to the NW? see latest visible loop. Is the eastern edge of the mid-west centered ridge capable of blocking and then shunting the system back to the west? See WV loop. Just asking.

--------------------
doug


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WeatherNut
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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US [Re: weathernet]
      #90620 - Mon Jul 18 2011 03:46 PM

Recon has found 996mb pressure which is down 4mb from 2p advisory. Also a couple of 60+mph winds and they just reached the center

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US [Re: WeatherNut]
      #90621 - Mon Jul 18 2011 03:49 PM

It has a good shot at reaching hurricane strength tonight, probably by the 8PM or 11PM advisory, at least forecast to do so at 5PM. It is really getting its act together right now as it may be forming an eyewall (Just look at the southern side on satellite imagery)

It looks to be no real threat to the US or Bermuda, though. The Bam models are no good for a strengthening system like this (perhaps a much weaker one)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US [Re: WeatherNut]
      #90622 - Mon Jul 18 2011 04:02 PM

Quote:

Recon has found 996mb pressure which is down 4mb from 2p advisory. Also a couple of 60+mph winds and they just reached the center




996mb gives a Max Possible Intensity of 79 mph under ideal conditions.
Bret doesn't appear to be under ideal conditions, but the conditions are improving.

July 18th is a bit early for a Hurricane. And in close proximity to land.


URNT12 KNHC 182041
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 18/19:29:50Z
B. 28 deg 09 min N
077 deg 04 min W
C. 850 mb 1406 m
D. 60 kt-- estimated surface wind speed
E. 271 deg 11 nm
F. 005 deg 53 kt
G. 269 deg 10 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 16 C / 1530 m
J. 21 C / 1522 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN N-E-S
M. C18- eye diameter( elliptical at this time )
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0302A BRET OB 04
MAX FL WIND 53 KT W QUAD 19:26:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 62 KT SE QUAD 19:39:10Z

Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 18 2011 05:13 PM)


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tcatron565
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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US [Re: MikeC]
      #90623 - Mon Jul 18 2011 08:26 PM

Brett is strengthening pretty quickly. Even though it most likely won't affect any land, it could become a category one hurricane. It may affect Bermuda on Friday, but that's if it shifts to the south a bit, which it doesn't look to do.

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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US [Re: MikeC]
      #90627 - Tue Jul 19 2011 02:25 AM

As of 2AM EDT, Bret has been having the wind knocked right out of him by his ongoing battle with dry air in the region. This steady and rather rapid erosion has been the trend ever since the cyclone started developing a ragged eyewall. Rather than enjoying a burst of renewed convection overnight, yet more dry air has continued taking a toll on what remains.

There is now a substantially increasing chance that Bret will merely degenerate into just a shallow, low-level swirl relatively soon- northerly shear is already now affecting the cyclone, is set to steadily increase over the next 48 hours, and at this rate, degeneration into a remnant low could happen as early as later today. Nonetheless, this is not yet the official forecast from the NHC, and even should the cyclone degenerate, often blustery winds and intermittent heavy showers can continue for some time until a system has either completely wound down, and/or become absorbed by something else.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US [Re: cieldumort]
      #90629 - Tue Jul 19 2011 12:42 PM

Bret looks to be past his best now, and is rapidly losing deep convection.

Visible imagery though shows an interesting development just north of Bermuda with a low pressure area developing along the same old frontal boundary that spawned Bret...

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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