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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: MikeC]
      #91201 - Sat Aug 06 2011 10:41 AM

Like Mike said...

The estimated top and bottom of the radar beam can be estimated using the link below.
At 120nm the bottom of the beam is roughly 10,000 feet or about the 650mb level. And the top is roughly 22,740 feet or near the 400mb level.

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 06 2011 10:46 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
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Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: danielw]
      #91202 - Sat Aug 06 2011 10:52 AM

Emilys circulation died out south of Haiti.. LLV raced out and was north of Cuba Friday evening. A new LLC
is trying to develop just north of Nassau. I think they will find a Closed circulation when recon gets there. I'm
also seeing banding trying to develop on the southwest side of the circulation. I feel this looks better now than
it ever really did... but the pressures are not as low.. say 1009-1010mb. Probably a TD by 5pm at 60% doubt
a TS unless recon can find some winds around 40mph


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
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Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: scottsvb]
      #91204 - Sat Aug 06 2011 11:29 AM

Looking at the Floater RGB Loop, again, I don't believe that this system is vertically stacked. I see a LLV just north of Grand Bahama Island with the convection (and probably the MLC) farther south and near Nassau (just north of Andros Island).

EDIT: The latest frames show a westward movement toward Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

Edited by MichaelA (Sat Aug 06 2011 12:06 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: MichaelA]
      #91205 - Sat Aug 06 2011 12:12 PM

Quote:

Looking at the Floater RGB Loop, again, I don't believe that this system is vertically stacked. I see a LLV just north of Grand Bahama Island with the convection (and probably the MLC) farther south and near Nassau (just north of Andros Island).
EDIT: The latest frames show a westward movement toward Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.




It might not be vertically stacked, but all of the evidence I'm seeing indicates that it has regained enough organization to justify re-initiating advisories - especially given that Emily is headed right for Miami, and isn't that far away. The MIA radar shows a weak circulation, but a circulation nonetheless, with the majority of the convection in the south and southeast quadrants.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: Hugh]
      #91206 - Sat Aug 06 2011 12:41 PM

The recon plane from keesler AFB is on the way, I still don't see anything happening this afternoon at least. Watch it do a cyclonic loop out in the Atlantic next week to drive people watching it too closely crazy.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: MikeC]
      #91207 - Sat Aug 06 2011 12:57 PM

There still seems to be a lot of shear (or, the shear is back), so you're probably right. Every time convection tries to fire up on the other side (north) of the apparent LLC it dies off quickly.

Edit: Up to 80% on the 2pm TWO (which is not very meaningful given that recon in literally enroute). The NHC is sticking by the "out to sea" forecast, even though the system itself is moving due west toward Miami from all indications

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 06 2011 01:48 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: Hugh]
      #91208 - Sat Aug 06 2011 02:12 PM

The radar from Klystron 9, Tampa Bay, shows the moisture from the storm moving towards the U.S. but whatever center there might be appears to be staying put. I am not sure itis the center but maybe just the area outside the radar field.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
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Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: Hugh]
      #91209 - Sat Aug 06 2011 02:14 PM

Looking at 24 image loop from long range Miami radar it sure looks to be moving slowly WNW. Would not be shocked to see this Tropical storm at 5pm I think recon will find 40+ mph winds in that convection. Have to say its even pretty apparent in visible loop as well, I'm a little surprised more are not talking about this?

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: Joeyfl]
      #91210 - Sat Aug 06 2011 02:21 PM

Quote:

Looking at 24 image loop from long range Miami radar it sure looks to be moving slowly WNW. Would not be shocked to see this Tropical storm at 5pm I think recon will find 40+ mph winds in that convection. Have to say its even pretty apparent in visible loop as well, I'm a little surprised more are not talking about this?




It's very difficult to determine motion of a developing system on radar, I think - to me, movement looks almost due west at a very slow drift, with the reforming LLC due east of West Palm Beach.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
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Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: Hugh]
      #91211 - Sat Aug 06 2011 02:26 PM

Have to agree Hugh looks to be just south of Freeport in the Bahamas, roughly duee east of Palm Beach. If anything maybe WNW but I have to say I do not see any northwest or north movement, Recon is just now exiting from Floirda peninsula near Palm beach should get some info in an hour. Heres a link to level II radar data from Miami.
http://www.aprsfl.net/radar/index.php?site=KAMX&mode=dz&animated=no


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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: Joeyfl]
      #91212 - Sat Aug 06 2011 02:27 PM

The storm that never really dies! Reminds me of the movie Christine. Convection continues to blossom. Looks to have a WNW movement. Banding is becoming more pronounced in the SE region. I would expect a upgrade to a depression @ the 5pm advisory. If it does keep this track to the WNW, it will bring some much needed rain to much of the state. This is what we all ask for as a drought buster a depression or minimal TS. Just what the doctor ordered!

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: M.A.]
      #91213 - Sat Aug 06 2011 03:09 PM

Based upon recon reports of west winds south of Grand Bahama, along with observations I've heard reported elsewhere, it's just a matter of what kind of winds the recon finds, whether it's a depression or a storm again. Of course, until we get an actual vortex report, nothing is certain.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Emily Falls Apart [Re: Hugh]
      #91214 - Sat Aug 06 2011 03:20 PM

Yes initial obs looking at plane there appears to be low level center along and just south of the central Grand Bahama coast.

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cieldumort
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Re: Emily Falls Apart, Remnants Struggle to Reform [Re: MikeC]
      #91215 - Sat Aug 06 2011 04:08 PM

Recon has definitely been finding some sort of LLC, and it has been moving steadily generally northward - now having crossed over Little Abaco Island. Recon is finding that much of the surface wind is still soft, at under 25 mph; however, Station Rocky Bay, Elbow Cay, ABACO, located at roughly 26.5N 77W, has been measuring fairly regular winds of between 30 and 41.4 mph as the center of Emily passed by to its west over the past two hours.

Edit to add that there does still appear to be multiple vortices. Not exactly a very well organized system (as if it ever has been).

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 06 2011 04:23 PM)


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Emily Falls Apart, Remnants Struggle to Reform [Re: cieldumort]
      #91216 - Sat Aug 06 2011 04:26 PM

Center appears to be right over Grand Bahama, moving quickly NW and basically shearing itself in the process. I think we are in for a soggy evening from Ft Pierce south to Miami. It just started raining pretty good here in NW Broward (Ft Lauderdale), not an outer band but part of the overall circulation as this rain came in from the N instead the normal W off the Everglades or SE on the ocean breeze.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Emily Falls Apart, Remnants Struggle to Reform [Re: JMII]
      #91217 - Sat Aug 06 2011 04:42 PM

And she is back as a 30 mph TD!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Re: Emily Falls Apart, Remnants Struggle to Reform [Re: Rich B]
      #91218 - Sat Aug 06 2011 04:45 PM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

...EMILY REGENERATES AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. COAST SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


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