danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest Harbor Cam photo from St Croix. I've been watching this web cam for about 6 hours and the conditions appear to be improving over the last couple of hours. At this location.
Based on the people sitting on the left bench.
3 hours ago. This was the scene. Notice the Catamaran Renegade is weathervaning with her bow into the NE wind. Camera faces toward the N and NE.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 05:31 PM)
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MikeC
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Interesting that recon is currently based in St. Croix, and even without taking off they have a 999mb pressure reading (Since the center of Irene is crossing St. Croix right now).
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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One of the buoys off St Croix (CHSV3) had a pressure reading 996Mb and is now reporting winds out of the SSW. LTBV3 has 997Mb and west wind yet the pressure is down slightly since the last reading
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Sun Aug 21 2011 06:38 PM)
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MikeC
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Recon confirmed the 996mb reading too, and roughly 60MPH winds. It will likely be a rough night in Puerto Rico for those there. I think that's the first time recon has taken off from literally within the center of a tropical system. That will go down in their books for sure. It looks like the 's track at least the next two days is going to be spot on.
The system is looking very healthy on the PR radar.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Recon confirmed the 996mb reading too, and roughly 60MPH winds. It will likely be a rough night in Puerto Rico for those there. I think that's the first time recon has taken off from literally within the center of a tropical system. That will go down in their books for sure. It looks like the 's track at least the next two days is going to be spot on.
The system is looking very healthy on the PR radar.
Radar shows at least half of an eyewall has formed (on the east side of the LLC). If what I'm seeing in terms of motion on the radar continues, the entire island will be on the bad side of the storm. I'm frankly surprised that the recon was able to take off - did they go STRAIGHT UP to get above the storm? If not, they had to fly through some very nasty stuff indeed (not compared to a major hurricane, of course, but flying through the eye of a hurricane is one thing... flying up through the eyewall of a developing storm seems a bit more risky).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 21 2011 07:10 PM)
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WeatherNut
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Thought I'd post this map of Hispaniola's topography and show why a northern clip of the island is not nearly as bad as from the south. Most of the highest peaks are on the Haitian side
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quick note: It is important to note that the exact center of the tropical cyclone, particularly one that is this anomalously large, is less important than knowing where you are in proximity to the large scale circulation over all.
Also, I wouldn't expect Irene to suffer the same impact from an interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola as Emily; the circulatory mass field of this cyclone is quite a bit larger and much more convincingly vertically integrated. Though a direct impact would have a significant detriment on Irene, the cyclone would have much better chance of regeneration - in other words, points farther west should not put their guard down should that happen.
The latest 3 hours worth of radar coverage are pointing out some interesting observations: The cyclone appears to have slowed substantial; it is currently - probably temporarily - wobbling S of due west at a very slow rate of speed.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Definately an average westerly movement for the past few hours - which will probably keep the storm south of Puerto Rico. The airport at St. Croix reported a pressure of 998MB and a peak wind gust of 40mph. The airport was on the south side of the center which helps to explain the weaker wind speeds. Land interaction with Hispaniola is now pretty much a guarantee and reduces the risk of a major storm later on (for the lawyers I said 'reduce', not 'eliminate').
ED
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MikeC
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Interesting to note Harvey is back over water and is forecast to become a Tropical Storm Before a second landfall in southern Mexico.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Definately an average westerly movement for the past few hours - which will probably keep the storm south of Puerto Rico. The airport at St. Croix reported a pressure of 998MB and a peak wind gust of 40mph. The airport was on the south side of the center which helps to explain the weaker wind speeds. Land interaction with Hispaniola is now pretty much a guarantee and reduces the risk of a major storm later on (for the lawyers I said 'reduce', not 'eliminate').
ED
Based upon the San Juan radar.... if Irene were moving due west (which, according to the , it's not doing, since they say it's moving WNW)... at least part of the eyewall would move right over Puerto Rico. Granted, a radar isn't perfectly aligned, but I think it's a fair bet that Irene will cross right over Puerto Rico.
Edit: Recon vortex shows pressure down to 994 and winds inching up to near 65mph. Fix is almost due east of Caja de Muerto (a tiny island south of the main island of Puerto Rico).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 21 2011 08:30 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Note: storm movements are based on averages.
If the storm takes a quick jog left or right it is usually an hour or more before the change in direction is notable. It can be 3 to 6 hours before a change in direction is mentioned. Depending on the next Advisory time, Proximity to land and other variables.
Remember .
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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my friend who lives in tortola, has been getting wind reading sustained at 45-50 mph with gust to 60mph. the last few hours.. no pressure readings
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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ICAO TISX
Station Name Christiansted
Country Virgin Islands (U.s.)
Location 17.70N 64.80W
Elevation 62
Time 22 / 01:10Z
Temperature 77.0
Dew Point 75.2
RH 94
Heat Index 77.9
Wind SSE (160) at 32, 47 gusts
Visibility 1.5
Pressure 1004.1
Weather Rain
Mist
Sky Condition Scattered clouds at 500ft
Broken clouds at 1200ft
Overcast at 1900ft
Remarks Hourly Precipitation Amount: 0.14 inch
METAR TISX 220110Z 16028G41KT 1 1/2SM RA BR SCT005 BKN012 OVC019 25/24 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 16041/0109 P0014
Peak Sustained Wind from 160 degrees at 41kts, 47mph. Occurred at 0109Z or 9:09 PM AST/ EDT.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 09:29 PM)
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Quote:
Note: storm movements are based on averages.
If the storm takes a quick jog left or right it is usually an hour or more before the change in direction is notable. It can be 3 to 6 hours before a change in direction is mentioned. Depending on the next Advisory time, Proximity to land and other variables.
Remember .
Seems Dan when I was in school playing with numbers I use to get frustrated quite abit over there movement speed/directions I finally saw it was usually a 6hr average for the most part.In response to the movement it does look alittle S of W to me also but chucked it up to poor eyesight.I do Ed think she misses the next trop point to the S buy 1'.
That would be point @ 69.4W by 1' 
Edited by javlin (Sun Aug 21 2011 09:51 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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A pinhole eye-like feature is now showing in the very latest radar image. Irene has definately ceased any obvious northward motion for the time being.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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We will not know much until it crosses over the islands.That is the bottom line.This is true for the track as well as the intensity.It will be a very large system,so SE Florida should feel the affects of this.How bad it could get is still in question.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MikeC
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I cannot see the changing the forecast track much if at all later tonight, with the model spread as it is now, the consensus is still at or just east of where the 5PM forecast track is offshore.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Irene has changed dramatically tonight. She is pulling it together and pulling it together as she makes her way towards PR... her intensity and forward speed have changed. The five day track doesn't need to be changed as that has not changed yet, but this is a big storm that is going to only get bigger.
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat...;animtype=flash
Funktop is equally as impressive.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 21 2011 10:43 PM)
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Yeah she is going to be a big girl and many will feel the effects.I have to wonder though do the models start changing to the W with a12-24 due W movement?if it should last that long.I only bring this up since everything in this region has moved E-W at 270'-280' for the last couple of weeks.Even Emily denied the models the WNW for the most part for what 24-36 hr maybe longer but had the desired result in the long run in relation to the models.It's what 3 weeks later and the synoptics over the has changed some so the trofs are not quite as sharp it's summer.I don't know watch and observe see how she looks in the morning and will she be S of Hispanola some.
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MikeC
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There's a particularly nasty band just about to hit Vieques east of PR, some of the recon winds found may be putting it into hurricane category fairly soon. With it crossing Puerto Rico like it looks like it will, it will put most of the island on the stronger part of the storm, so any strengthening bursts as it crosses will be felt in parts around the island. Recon has indicated that the storm has moved due west over the past two hours.
The is doing a good job keeping it conservative, I just don't see any reason to send out too many alarms yet for the US other than watch it closely, especially if this system crosses over Hispaniola. Although media hype may kick up once Irene gets called a hurricane. (Later tonight or early tomorrow AM) As far as Irene and Hispaniola it likely won't be destroyed like Emily, but it will still get weakened quite a bit. For those in PR, and the Dominican Republic, though, stay safe.
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