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Recon finding #Sam a vigorous Cat 4 and may be knocking on Cat 5 w/ a tight inner core. Hopefully staying away from land.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Nicholas) , Major: 28 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1082 (Michael) Major: 1082 (Michael)
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News Talkback >> 2021 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
End of June Waves
      #113791 - Thu Jun 24 2021 08:50 AM

10PM EDT 29 June Update
Just as soon as we said goodbye to Invest 96L that went on to become a soaking Tropical Storm Danny while over portions of southern SC, and then into Georgia and points west, we say hello to Invest 97L.

As 97L is getting its act together way out in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Tropical Atlantic, there will not be the urgency of a PTC "Potential Tropical Cyclone" Watch/Warning feature as we tend to see when systems are likely to develop within 48 hours of impacting land. However, as of this update, the Invest otherwise has two feet firmly planted in the potential TC bin, and it would not surprise to see it go on to become yet another named storm sooner rather than later, and it could become a long-track TC.

The next name on the list of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Elsa.

Ciel

7PM EDT 27 June Update
Invest 96L located about 425 or so miles east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border as of this update, has been on the cusp of being classifable as a TD during the afternoon, and has a decent shot of being upgraded as early as later tonight, with perhaps even better odds tomorrow when the low travels across the warm Gulf Stream.

Interests offshore, along the coasts of, and inland of Georgia and South Carolina may want to being taking some precautions for a land-falling wet and blustery depression or storm early in the new week.

Ciel

Original Entry
The strong wave in the far east Atlantic has a 40% chance to develop over the next 5 days with the highest chance for development in the short term in about 2-4 days. Past that windshear increases which would make it much less likely, at least until it crosses the Atlantic, it's still fairly early in the hurricane season. It's unlikely to do much beyond this even further out, but it is still something to watch.

Since convection improved quite a bit with it overnight, it was enough to get this tagged as Invest area 95L. So the best chance for development is in the next 4 days before it hits the shear mentioned above.

The other wave just east of the Caribbean continues to decrease chances for development, hovering around 10%. Not much is expected here other than rain in the Islands.

The system in the far east Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 95L.


Invest 95L Event Related Links


float5latest.gif stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=5 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



97L Event Related Links


float6latest.gif stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 97L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: End of June Waves [Re: MikeC]
      #113799 - Wed Jun 30 2021 02:52 PM

95L is straddling the Lesser Antilles as of 3 pm EDT. Circulation appears to have remained intact.
Now the question is whether it will intensify as predicted and move toward Dominican Republic and Haiti.



Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 30 2021 03:12 PM)


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