GFSS and GEFS and CMC all have something in the Gulf next week, but the CMC and Ensembles are split with the GFS. Canadian has a SW Florida cat 2/3 hit, whereas the the GFS has a 4/5 hit in Northern Mexico. Something to watch next week regardless.
Central Americas gyre becoming active about the same time deep, un-worked over (since Beryl)/Debby) near-peak SST's in the western Caribbean and eastern GOMEX provide ample fuel and atmospheric conditions become extremely favorable signal that any spin-up that occurs in the region next week could have explosive potential. Modeling has been playing on this with some consistency, though ultimate track remains a question.
Given trough deepening over the western third of the CONUS and high pressure building off the mid-Atlantic coast, anything that forms may drift north then northeast into the eastern GOMEX, potentially threatening the Florida panhandle. Stay tuned...
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