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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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Posts: 164
Loc: East Central Florida
Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #115135 - Mon Sep 16 2024 03:40 PM

GFSS and GEFS and CMC all have something in the Gulf next week, but the CMC and Ensembles are split with the GFS. Canadian has a SW Florida cat 2/3 hit, whereas the the GFS has a 4/5 hit in Northern Mexico. Something to watch next week regardless.

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IsoFlame
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Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: CFHC]
      #115136 - Tue Sep 17 2024 11:38 AM

Central Americas gyre becoming active about the same time deep, un-worked over (since Beryl)/Debby) near-peak SST's in the western Caribbean and eastern GOMEX provide ample fuel and atmospheric conditions become extremely favorable signal that any spin-up that occurs in the region next week could have explosive potential. Modeling has been playing on this with some consistency, though ultimate track remains a question.

Given trough deepening over the western third of the CONUS and high pressure building off the mid-Atlantic coast, anything that forms may drift north then northeast into the eastern GOMEX, potentially threatening the Florida panhandle. Stay tuned...

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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