cieldumort
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MikeC
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The two current invest aren't likely going to amount to much, 90L is likely to develop, but remain weak, and 99L, although persistent, really doesn't have a great shot to develop now, but could later. Areas off the southeast coast from fronts are probably going to be the next development after it, but the next week or two are likely uncharacteristically going to be light. Mid to late September seems like the most likely time for folks to watch. Monitor closely, but nothing concerning right now.
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MikeC
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Very quiet on the long range front outside Fernand. 99L may wind up something in the east Pacific, but as it stands now, recon didn't find the LLC needed to keep it going on the Atlantic side. Turning to ensembles for peak season is pretty unusual, just a hint of a frontal low developing off the coast of Carolina and moving nne for a short-lived weak system, and maybe a wave exiting Africa on September 1st that has the odds stacked against it for development. There's nothing in a favorible location to speak of for the next two weeks or so, later half of September could have more activity, but for the moment it's thankfully very quiet in the Atlantic, other than Fernand moving safely out to sea.
Barbados and surrounding islands are getting some rain from 99L, but that's likely to move out later today. 99L itself missed its window of opportunity to develop in the Atlantic, conditions are too hostile in the Caribbean.
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IsoFlame
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This morning there is a vigorous surge of convection tracking WNW over the western Caribbean Sea south of Cuba that is pushing WNW toward the Yucatan peninsula.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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MikeC
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Near term, I usually look at the vorticity charts to see if convection aligns with anything for potential with tropical development at the 850 level, if it does, then you have to check closely for low levels. (99L fit the 850 well, but lacked the low level.. you need both for development.) 99L's 850 reflection has tanked since yesterday so it's not doing anything in the Atlantic. Yucatan area has no circulation/vorticity at low or mid levels. The area East of New Jersey is too elongated and also too far north, Fernand is still there
The area near the OK/Texas/New Mexico borders is the one some of the models were hooking into for frontal development in a week off NC, but that's a long shot also. EPAC is going to see most of the activity this week.
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MikeC
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0z Euro shows two MDR waves in the very long run, although the setup for them implies both will likely recurve., if they form (especially the western wave). The icon is very agressive with development right off Africa, but it's alone in that assumption. is not really on board with either.
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CFHC
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12z does develop the wave off Africa, but eventually recurves it (although it does stall and dip south a bit). 12Z Canadian develops it earlier. 12Z Euro is weaker, and stretches it out around 52west longitude. Just not a lot of support at the moment, but something to watch later.
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CFHC
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Gfs and euro and ensembles show more potential for developnent now, but a recurve north of the caribbean islands remains the most likely outcome, bermuda should watch closely. The rest should just monitor.
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MikeC
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This one is up to 60% development, and probably will, if itt gets too far west the will probably annihilate it. :The 12Z icon shows the Caribbean islands need to at least monitor it. But the most likely land impact is still probably Bermuda, maybe even more likely to get closer than Erin around this time. As far as any continental US impacts, extremely unlikely and not really concerned for there, synoptic setup is really not going to allow it to get even as far west as Erin got.
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MikeC
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Models haven't changed all that much, still a potential threat to the Leeward islands, and moreso Bermuda. Ensembles have widened today, although most still recurve. Things like the show a bit of a hook after Bermuda, so trends need to be watched, but a US landfall is still extremely unlikely.
Still, the most likely outcome, as of tonight, is that the area in the East Atlantic will recurve near/east of the Leewards and get close to Bermuda. However, a weaker storm in the MDR has a higher chance of getting much closer to the islands (where it could strengthen quickly). So leewards definitely need to monitor.
Euro AI doesn't develop thi sat all, the 18Z euro is much further south than the 12Z, 18Z ensembles are all recurving east of the islands
It may get invest tagged tomorrow, but it's dependent on if a LLC or even coherant convective area can be estimated. (Right now it can't)
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MikeC
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Pretty much status quo on the wave in the east Atlantic today. It's questionable if it'll even get invest tagged again today. Models vary between going over the islands weak, to stronger recrurving, or some in the middle like the Canadian. Most of the euro ensembles are north of the islands, all of the ones are. In the very long range there's a stall near Bermuda on the , which could make it interesting for Bermuda (although this type of movement in the very long range models is suspect. But any direct us landfall seems incredibly unlikely still. For the highest odds, you would have to go with something recurving east of the islands and getting near Bermuda, but it could get close enough to the leeward islands that those folks should watch too. The really is an obstacle for this here that the models are having issues with.
Until the convective area is more sound it's unlikely to get invest tagged (if you can't identify a decent center it doesn't help much) If the near term changes go up, it's more likely to get tagged. The is definitely making the models struggle on run to run consistency. may be more sensitive to that track wise, euro more on the intensity side.
Edited by CFHC (Wed Sep 03 2025 08:22 AM)
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CFHC
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Future posts about this system are in https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=115833&gonew=1#UNREAD
ensemble plots
GFS
Euro
Google
Edited by MikeC (Thu Sep 04 2025 07:32 AM)
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