cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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7AM CDT 23 July 2025 Update
The weak trof which includes some remnant energy from old Invest 93L that looped back around is now in the north central Gulf. A recon mission has been tentatively scheduled to check it out today and so we could be tracking Invest 95L here in a bit.
This feature has a very low chance of development into a TC before moving inland over Texas and/or Louisiana later this week, but is worth monitoring given the very warm Gulf waters and the sensitivities to additional rain across sections of the south.
Ciel
8PM EDT 22 July 2025 Update
There is a new 10% area being tracked, this is part of the remnants of invest 93L that loop back over into the Atlantic, but it's unlikely to develop in the Gulf, but there's a slight chance if it gets its act together. (Other parts of 93L split and went into Texas too) If it gets another Invest it'll wind up with 95L.
Some of the models suggest parts of it may loop back once again into the Atlantic and Gulf next week as well.
Original Update
The final stretch of July has a few areas of interest worth monitoring, none of which are particularly concerning at this time, however.
In the Main Development Region east of the Caribbean, a tropical wave has a marginal environment to work in, but could eek it out. This wave has now been Invest tagged, 94L, and hyper-focused model runs have begun.
Later this week, on-and-off support exists for the development of something tropical either side of Florida, but thus far there's nothing to really hang ones hat on for tracking.
Elsewhere, the remnant swirl of 93L hasn't given up the ghost just yet, providing some much appreciated clouds and a few light showers across Texas.
Ciel
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MikeC
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Recon is scheduled for the Gulf area tomorrow
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231506
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1105 AM EDT WED 23 JULY 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JULY 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-053
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 24/1700Z
D. 27.0N 89.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW LEVEL INVEST
H. WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT - TEAL 72
A. 25/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 25/1030Z
D. 28.0N 92.0W
E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF/WJM
NNNN
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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The recon mission scheduled for today has been canceled given that the system remains very broad and disorganized.
There is a flight now set for late Friday, if necessary.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT THU 24 JULY 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JULY 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-054
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST GULF OF AMERICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73
A. 25/2330Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 25/2200Z
D. 29.0N 94.5W
E. 25/2300Z TO 26/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2545
Loc: Austin, Tx
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 25 JULY 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JULY 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-055
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: ALL TASKING ON THE SUSPECT AREA IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF AMERICA WAS CANCELED BY AT 25/1120Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
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