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Lorenzo well out at sea. Late this week worth monitoring for disturbances that could track closer to home.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 368 (Milton) , Major: 368 (Milton) Florida - Any: 368 (Milton) Major: 368 (Milton)
TS Lorenzo
ADV#3 5:00 pm EDT
15.2N 41.7W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1002mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
E ATL Wave
      #115912 - Mon Oct 13 2025 01:09 PM



A wave that has recently entered the far eastern Tropical Atlantic well south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is more likely than not to track underneath a building area of high pressure left in the wake of a recurving Lorenzo and potentially track much farther west and develop in the Atlantic basin than most have done this year.

Conditions for development in the Main Development Region (MDR) this week and into next look markedly more favorable than they have throughout the bulk of this season, with abundant instability, rising motion, less dry air, and a forecast of less shear.

Despite it being mid-October, this year, like last, is trending back-loaded. If conditions for this wave play out as forecast, it could become a named storm approaching the Caribbean later this week into next. As such, we are starting a Lounge on this disturbance at this time.

No Invest tag yet and not yet mentioned in the NHC TWO

More details to come

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Owlguin
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Re: E ATL Wave [Re: cieldumort]
      #115913 - Mon Oct 13 2025 02:05 PM

Thanks. Both main models seem to be picking up on this and developing it into a pretty strong storm. Plenty of time to see how that plays out.

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TanukiMario
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Re: E ATL Wave [Re: cieldumort]
      #115914 - Mon Oct 13 2025 03:30 PM

Thanks. I'll be following this one.

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