MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'mg going for Named Storms: 10
Hurricanes: 5
Major Hurricanes (Cat 3-4-5): 1
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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12/4/2
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Very few votes this year. Seems we all have a relaxed feeling about the ability of this season to produce in the Atlantic basin. However, after I share my best guesses, let me also share a couple of my analogous years that still posed a threat.
My RONI revised and updated formula for the Atlantic basin this year comes up with the following:
9 Names 4 Hurricanes 2 Majors
My likely range calls for: 7-11 Names, 3-5 Hurricanes, 1-2 Majors, with a total season ACE of 74-110 (92+/-). Statistically, 1 Atlantic-side US direct impact/landfall for the season, but far less confidence in that. Maybe more, maybe less.
There are actually names that became famous in the Atlantic basin during some of my analog years. For example: Audrey (1957), Betsy (1965), Agnes (1972), Belle (1976), Bob (1991), Danny (1997) and Lili (2002) all caused problems. Also, there seems to still be a small chance that conditions could ultimately be less hostile or even favorable for development in the Atlantic basin, which would toss everything up. I'd place the odds of an above-average season in the Atlantic at a slim, but real, 12.5%.
As for the Pacific, a completely different story looks likely. Over in the central and east Pac, things could be gangbusters, and it is worth keeping eyes open for Hawaii and the southwest ~ even California.
Here are a few names that for the US were historically important in the central and eastern Pacific during my analog years: Celeste (1972 - Johnston Atoll struck), Diana (1972 - Hawaii impacts), Hyacinth (1972 - SoCal landfall), Joanne (1972 - Tropical Storm in Arizona), Kathleen (1976 - record rain with flooding in central and southern California, sustained tropical storm-force winds and flooding throughout much of Arizona), Olivia (1982 - remnants caused significant flooding in California and Utah), Iwa (1982 - the costliest hurricane to affect the state of Hawaii up to this date), Ignacio (1997 - remnants produced record rainfall with isolated flash flooding and debris flows in coastal California), Nora (1997 - heavy rainfall and flooding in southern California; heavy rainfall, flooding and sustained tropical storm-force winds in much of Arizona; heavy rainfall, flooding and hurricane-force winds in Utah).
ATLANTIC: 9 Names, 4 Hurricanes, 2 Majors
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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CSU's latest update out today, June 10 https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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I guess last year's lack of US landfalls, the increasing likelihood of El Nino conditions accelerating late summer to November 30th, seasonal outlooks nearly unanimously calling for below (to well below) normal activity in the Atlantic basin, and the lack of US landfalls last season has collectively lulled interest following a decade of impactful US hurricanes.
Given the increase in activity since the pertinent publication: Effect of El Nino on U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes in 1998, it will be interesting to see if the forecasts for a relatively tame season holds true, especially considering the pace of activity the last 20 years when nine 18+ named storm seasons occurred between 2005-2025. While satellite-era monitoring means few tropical systems go unnoticed. ATLANTIC HURRICANE NUMBERS BY YEAR illustrates the back-loaded activity in recent times.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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