Lysis_
Unregistered
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Duplicate Post from above. see post from Jekyhe904
Lysis, you are welcome to register, it's free. Then I could send you a PM.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Thu Jun 23 2005 09:44 PM)
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Better safe than sorry, right? Can't dispute your plan at all. Sounds good... hopefully not needed 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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That does look very interesting just off s.Florida.I see the spin.This rain here has to stop,it has rained almost everyday for a month now.We are losing our minds.It is raining very hard here now.Please send some life jackets.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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Not sure if this means the local NWS is thinking there will be any development or not but Here is the local forecast and it looks to be at least blustery/wet and Note the 31mph winds Sat/Sat nite....
Quote:
Overnight: Partly cloudy, with a low near 74. East wind around 7 mph.
Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.
Partly cloudy, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a east wind between 9 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Breezy, with a east wind between 14 and 17 mph.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am.
Mostly cloudy, with a high around 82.
Breezy, with a east wind between 17 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Breezy, with a east wind between 11 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Quote:
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN ALL LOCATIONS...AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO WINDY ALONG THE COAST WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (SUSTAINED WINDS >20 MPH) BY LATE IN THE DAY.
Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 24 2005 04:11 AM)
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hurircaneready
Unregistered
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Take a look at the area east of the ULL. Centered around 23.5/75 west. It appears to have started to wrap convection around it. The models forecast this low to move around that ULL over the next few days. Could be a subtropical or even a tropical storm>
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Area Forecast Discussions from Charleston,SC to Tallahassee,FL do not mention anything other than a Tropical Wave moving into and through the area over the next 3 days.
At this time, 5:04 EDT, the models are still not confining the mid/ upper level low and forthcoming Tropical Wave to a distinct area.
GFS is showing the wave moving onto the East Coast between Jacksonville and Charleston.
While the is a little slower and more toward the FL/ GA border with its movement of the wave.
Some mention is made of the possibility of the wave crossing the Northern FL Peninsula and
into the NE Gulf of Mexico, Saturday Night. (AFDJAX)
AL/ MS border~Sunday Morning (AFDJAN)
Central Gulf Coast~Monday and Tuesday (AFDLIX).
Again, at this time, No Mention of any development as of 5 AM EDT.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWOAT.0506240859
Please consult your local NWS Office for current local forecasts. Click on the following link and select your area.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/
Melbourne, FL NWS radar link.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p37cr/si.kmlb.shtml
Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 24 2005 05:43 AM)
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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It's gettin nasty here:
ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N79W IS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF WEATHER TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO
THE CARIBBEAN AND ALSO COVERS A PORTION OF THE E GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDS FROM
30N78W ALONG 26N79W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 32N TO OVER THE E
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AND A SMALLER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-26W BETWEEN 70W-75W. A SWATH OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 30N78W TO OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN VERO AND WEST PALM BEACH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE W INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR HOWEVER THE
SURFACE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL
FORMATION IS NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR CUBA...THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS...AND THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. FARTHER E...AN AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS PUERTO RICO NE TO BEYOND
32N57W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN THE THIS RIDGE AND
A DEEP-LAYERED CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM BEYOND
32N46W S THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N47W TO 14N51W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N46W TO 25N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 25N-29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF 30W FROM 26N-32N. TO THE SE...BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF 25N WITH A
MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N30W.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR 29N27W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N34W SW TO 22N45W.
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LisaA
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne FL
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I hear ya FtLaudBob, people's moods are getting really ugly around here with no sun. I was supposed to take the kids to the beach today (we were going to go to 5th Ave, Weatherchef, heard you're really getting drenched). I'm thinking about just putting their raincoats on and going, it's not lightening right now. Neighbors say they've only ever had "wind driven rain" get into their houses but we decided to go ahead and get the flood insur. for peace of mind!
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Colleen, I think we must live on the same block. I saw that squirrel too. I agree with you that the weekend of Fourth of July will be the weekend for bad weather. I am going down to Jensen Beach for five days and it is typical that tropical weather and storms tend to chase me in stead of the other way around.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Katie...today's weather should be great. If you're a duck. Who knows, before long we might see some of those guys flying backwards soon. Since you live in Winter Haven (I think), and the moisture is moving east to west, you'll probably get wet before I do. Wanna go in with me on the purchase of a canoe? 
As for the 4th...I shouldn't complain if we get some showers to cool off. Two years ago it was so hot (like 400 degrees) that after we had wandered around aimlessly for an hour looking for my husband's customer that by the time we got back, I was oozing salt and could have provided enough of it for a whole herd of deer. Last year, it was not QUITE as hot, but we got pummelled with a huge t-storm about 45 minutes before the race was supposed to start. 2 guys got struck by lightning near the merchandise trailers; they weren't killed, but I'm sure it hurt. Not that some of these people are the smartest people in world: "Oh, gee whiz, it's going to storm..let's go buy some memorabelia near the all metal trailers that serve as lightning magnets...anyone with me?"
Can you say DUH? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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This whole thing just looks to complex for any thing other than a gale( or less) center to develop over the Bahamas. As far as the Central Carribean wave, I think it is interacting with the trough and getting entrained into the system to its north. There is another ULL diving SW from GA into the GOM. According to the discussion today this will continue to track in that direction and leave a piece behind over the Bahamas, this was went across S. Florida (another ULL?) yesterday. It is this left behind piece that may develop and track NW'd around the trough into the So. Carolina area this weekend.
I think too much has to happen for a named or bonafide tropical system comes from all of this.
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doug
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Good morning all, anyone know what the issue w/ is? It's been down for a couple of days now. Colleen, Happy B-Day to Hubby, mine is 6-28.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Colleen - meet you at Andy Thornal's for a canoe. I think they are having a sell actually! Well, I hope you don't get rained out at your event.
Yeah, I am over here in WH. It has been sprinking on and off all morning, but we got a good rain a little bit ago. I have got to make it to The Chain of Lakes Complex to sign Madison up for swim lessons. Today is the last day. Just the thought of getting out in the weather makes me want to hang myself. Oh well.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Yeah, there's a shot at a baroclinic storm on the resurrected 94L system. I'm not sure if it gets to gale center, TD or possibly low-range named storm prior to hitting the GA/SC coast later this weekend. It appears the upper level low will move inland first followed by the surface feature. Perhaps the /CMC alliance was correct in placing something more than just an upper vortex on the map. The bottom half of the wave, what I was betting on, still looks like it's got a shot to go in the next week period To me, it's more a question of whether it gets cranking in the BOC or the EPAC. I still think it's gonna make a run for it. And after all this time, who would have guessed Colleen was a super vixen? 
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Pouring in Metro- West - - windy, Dogs, Cats, Squirrils??? Small suv's flying by office windows - - Funnel clouds near Ormond by the sea - - Nice quiet Tropical Wave - - yeah right
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes...I saw that you guys over there are getting hammered..by the weather! So far, we're just getting some wind gusts with a few sprinkles here and there, but the clouds are really starting to look ominous now. The beach balls in my pool are going around in circles.
You know, I was JUST kidding when I said that I wouldn't be surprised to see ducks flying backwards. However, while I was out on the porch area by the pool getting some things out of rain's way, my prediction came true. A couple of reckless blue jays were flying at high rate of speed and one of them slammed right into a section of screen. He hit so hard that he went flying BACKWARDS. It took him a couple of minutes to gather his wits about him, but after shaking his ruffled feathers and shrieking a bit, he proceeded to restart his trip.
And promptly flew right into the screen again. I don't think he has a very good sense of direction.
Stay safe!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Probably graduated from UF - - LOL
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Actually I'm getting impressed by the system that's draped across the Bahamas right now. Thinking it may pinwheel aorund the ULL moving across the peninsula, which may help draw it westward as the ridge builds in from the western Atlantic. Lots of rain and some windy conditions here in Melbourne/Palm Bay. The water temps in the Bahamas have come up nicely in the past few weeks, and as the ULL continues to back towards the GOM, it will slowly lose its grip on the surface low that's developing, which should slow its movement. Surfs Up either way!! Cheers!!
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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It looks like it could get about as bad as the  devastating tropical depression #7 in 2002 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2003H/SEVEN/track.gif Is this a good summary of what may happen -if that- ?
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i figured everyone would start talking about it more today, so i posted a new thread.
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