Catawba
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Loc: Putnam County, Florida
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From the 11:00 advisory....
Quote:
THE AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO FEED COOLER AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...AND SHOULD THAT HAPPEN IT COULD THROW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
Question about the above statement...how would this cooler air affect the depression? Is it more likely to allow convection and strengthening, or would it help dissipate it?
Thanks, MB
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dolfinatic
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ok so after reading discussion. basically if i am reading it right, is that they dont know where this one is going yet. I guess due to model guidance so spread apart. I dont think however that it will go in up at the NE Fl coast. Correct me if I am wrong but history is against a Ne Fl landfall. Any Met want to comment on that?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Thx Clark for the explaination.
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11pm is out. They are still watching 92L for development, but they aren't expecting it.
Maria's down to a Tropical Storm.
Nate hasn't been upgraded yet, but I still expect it by morning.
16 hasn't been upgraded yet. By morning we will have a better idea of what she's doing. As for the cool air injection, tropical cyclones have a warm core. cyclones have a cool core. I'm not sure whether a cool air injection would cause an cool core to form, but it's possible. If nothing else it might cause a hybrid system to develop over the near term..before it returns to a tropical characteristic. Others probably know better than I do what it would do  - it sounds like the doesn't know what to do with 16...so they are sitting on it until morning when a different forcast team gets a shot 
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Noone really has a clue on where this is going. If the experts at the have little confidence in their forecast, I think it is safe to say that anyone on this board would also be guessing. I find it odd that on the weather tonight, I watch Channel 9 News with Tom Terry, and he pretty much did not go into any real detail tonight. Normally he does an fairly detailed analysis. The graphic of the models appeared on the screen for seconds, and he barely discussed his thoughts. Was just very odd. Considering the advisory by the and NWS stating that everyone in Central Florida should be watching this storm, and that models are so diverse, I would expect him to be telling people to at least be vigilant and alert. Nope, said just a rain maker and went on his way. So out of character for him..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Colleen A.
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I watched Tom Terry tonight, too, and I felt the same way you do. All they had up on the 5 day outlook was "Tropical Troubles".
I did notice that they slowed the track down a bit. In their disco they mentioned that shear is to supposed to relax for the next 12-24 (I think) and then come back into play again after that which would probably mean that it may mess up the storm a bit before/if it makes landfall. Also interesting was the talk about the cooler air injecting itself into the system.
Looks like they may have shifted the track to the right a tiny bit, but it's kinda hard to tell. It appears that until it starts moving, we're just going to have to watch it. (inject a "DUH" here).
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Clark
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About a NE Florida landfall: history is against it, but a number of other storms have made landfall there. A tropical depression a few years back was the most recent storm to do so. It's certainly not unprecedented.
With regards to the colder air: air temperatures over the southeast US and over the open waters (e.g. the Gulf Stream) are pretty warm, averaging in the mid-upper 80s. Tropical cyclones by definition have a warm-core, where temperatures in the center of the storm are warmer than those found outside of the storm; this is the case for TD 16, with warmer temperatures found by recon in the center of the storm than outside of it (about 1-2 deg C; the greater the differential, the stronger the storm...usually). I won't go into the discussion of how this occurs right now; maybe during the off-season in a series of mini-featurettes I've got planned.
Midlatitude systems -- those associated with cold fronts -- are generally cold-core by nature (though warm-core cyclones do exist). Their growth mechanisms differ from hurricanes -- again, a long topic for another day after the season -- but one of the things associated with these systems and one of the potential causes for storms to either develop in an fashion or undergo transition is a temperature gradient. With a cold air infusion from the midlatitudes, you set up a strong temperature gradient (either at the surface or aloft) between the environment of the tropical cyclone and the midlatitude environment, with some of this latter environment potentially encroaching upon the storm. It would not lead to tropical development; instead, it would either lead to the storm weakening or beginning to undergo transition (at least to the point of taking on more of a hybrid structure).
This changes what you can expect in terms of the wind field and precipitation distributions with the storm as the wind field expands outward and the precipitation distribution taking on more of an asymmetric (almost frontal-like) nature. Were this storm to undergo such an evolution, most of the weather may remain offshore given the preferential nature for this to occur on the east side of the storm; it is certainly not a given that this will occur, however. It's a tough forecast for this storm from all angles -- the spread in the models has that classic "squashed spider" movement that the loves to split down the middle and take slowly, often with good results -- and everyone along the northern Gulf coast to the Carolinas needs to watch this one, just in case.
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scottsvb
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After a dismall forecast and my 2nd error this season, Ill try to rebound. So far its moving faster then the models and the have forecasted but I posted that would happen on another site. Remember the models overdid the weakness with and moved her over florida 1 day ahead of schedule when she was still a TS. Currently again TD16 is moving faster then they anticipated or is it? Well its not really,, its just relocating its vortex center on the southern edge of the blow up of storms. Ridging over Nate has forced that N movement....outside of him there would been nothing to move TD16. Anyways here is what should happen. TD 16 is getting sheared moreso then the models have shown due to what I said above, this should keep it somewhat disorganized for the next 12 hours. Later today ( Weds) she should make TS status. A general movement bend to the NW should happen as Nate gets pushed N and NE away from TD16 by a trough to its NW. As the trough digs down Thurs into Friday, expect a slow movement to the ENE then E near 30N for the tropical storm. Since she will be on the southern extent of the trough, expect her to be left behind as the trough moves most of its energy to the NE. Heights will rise along the east coast of the U.S. by this weekend and should steer the Tropical Storm back at first towards the wsw then w between Melbourne and Daytona over the weekend. She should become a hurricane by this weekend and could be a decent 1. After this weekend its too hard and far out to forecast. Florida- the Carolinas will probably have a landfall. Not too sure about a trough coming down off the eastern U.S. next week until Weds-Thurs but how strong and far S is the key.
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Storm Hunter
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this may be off post...... not sure if anyone has posted this link..... check out nasa's web site.... with all the new and improved technology.... there is some amazing stuff here, and i could only wonder whats still being looked at before it's relased to the public....
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/h2005_katrina.html
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 07 2005 01:58 AM)
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Clark
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Thoughts on TD 16 & its future track posted to the blog. Think the track is a pretty good one unless the system continues to "move"/reform further to the north, bringing about an increased likelihood of capture & recurvature very close to the coastline. Intensity forecast looks pretty good as well, but I think the intensification will come more in bursts than in a gradual strengthening. Might peak near or just above minimal hurricane intensity, but that's about all the interaction with land and the midlatitudes will allow.
Feature in the W. Gulf bears watching, but it needs time to stick around and spin-up something at the surface and I'm not convinced it has that time. It's a Texas/Mexico threat no matter what happens. Might warrant an invest in a day or so.
And as a final note on , the New Orleans radar came back up today as Slidell starts to rebuild and regain electricity. It's a nice beacon to see, I guess.
More as time permits, though I'll likely leave things to the others with a bit more time for the next day or so. Have a good night, all.
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Storm Hunter
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM... NORTH OF FREEPORT
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS
...AND NEARBY BUOYS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40
MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A
DRIFTING BUOY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 38 MPH...AND NOAA BUOY 41010 WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THAN TO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 07 2005 02:19 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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URNT12 KNHC 070615
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/0542Z
B. 27 DEG 51 MIN N
78 DEG 51 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 047 DEG 42 KT
G. 330 DEG 54 NM
H. EXTRAP 1003 MB
I. 24 C/ 466 M
J. 27 C/ 495 M
K. 23 C/ 30 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0216A CYCLONE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 0523Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
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not sure if you may be able to view this.... here's a look out of a one of the P-3's...(NOAA aircraft) at 's eye.... pretty picture... would est. plane is flying at or near 10,000ft. or lower... i think this may also be when the eye was 32nm wide....not sure what day or time.... but i would bet she is atleast a cat 4 in the picture.... the stadium effect is perfect and no high clouds are seen over the eye in the picture.....
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/katrina2005/Reye9.jpg
if you can't see the picture.....more information can be found here
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data2.html
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Johns Island, SC
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The latest track from the is fairly ominous. Looks like we will be watching this one for a few days. Is there any evidence that once it makes the eastward turn, it will continue to loop around and come back toward Florida? I remember reading earlier that a strong ridge was forcast to build back over the area. That would certainly prevent any true northward movement of the storm. Between the storms this year and the new business, I believe what little hair I have remaining is going to fall out!
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Random Chaos
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Loc: Maryland
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Looking at Ophelia this morning I'm not liking what the models are doing to its track. It would be better just to slam it into FL before it has a chance to strengthen. Instead , , and UKMET are having it do a cyclonic loop. This matches with the forcast track, sending it back towards FL in about 5 days as a Hurricane.
She has taken on the classic Comma shape so often seen on strong TS's and weak hurricanes. I wouldn't be surprised if the next numbers saw her stronger. I'd guess she might be a 3 now, but I'm no expert  .
GFDL still isn't handling the storm well. The model has been very consistant about taking her into FL and across into the gulf. Ophelia just doesn't seem to want to do that. Additionally it seems that isn't even strengthening Ophelia when she deserves to be strengthened (the last run doesn't bring her to TS strength until she's in the Gulf...yet Ophelia has reached it). It did the same thing with - failed to develop the storm correctly. I'm wondering if the just doesn't do well with Bahamas-area systems? It's done outstanding with almost everything else.
CMC is the nicest forcast. It takes Ophelia out to sea in Nate's wake. Unfortunately I don't see this one coming to pass anymore than the solution.
--RC
P.S. - now we have 50 AM over at . Someone needs to realize that there aren't 50 hours in either the first half or the last half of a day 
Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 07 2005 06:42 AM)
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Hugh
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Quote:
\
GFDL still isn't handling the storm well. The model has been very consistant about taking her into FL and across into the gulf. Ophelia just doesn't seem to want to do that. Additionally it seems that isn't even strengthening Ophelia when she deserves to be strengthened (the last run doesn't bring her to TS strength until she's in the Gulf...yet Ophelia has reached it). It did the same thing with - failed to develop the storm correctly. I'm wondering if the just doesn't do well with Bahamas-area systems? It's done outstanding with almost everything else.
CMC is the nicest forcast. It takes Ophelia out to sea in Nate's wake. Unfortunately I don't see this one coming to pass anymore than the solution.
Which model ended up "handling" the best? I didn't pay attention to that. Since Ophelia is north of 's wake but in the same general area, the same model might be the one to favor... As long as it isn't or BAMM!
Update: It's just me I'm sure but I can almost imagine a right turn on the short and long ranger radar. Probably just the angle of the radar.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Sep 07 2005 06:52 AM)
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emackl
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"Which model ended up "handling" the best?"
I thought it was the ..lol! May be wrong though. It's the one that had the sw movement. However, this storm is already north of where it has it coming in. I certainly hope it doesn't all of a sudden decide to move this way. The older kids are in school. Storms scare them anyway. Never the less and tropical one.
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tpratch
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New Thread Up
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Beaumont, TX
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The feature in the Gulf, if anything happened with that would it be a south Texas threat? Also, what are the chances anything could
happen with that?
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The Force 2005
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I posted a reply yesterday, and would like to re-post today about what "minimal" is or was stated. I believe once again, that forecasters drop the term "minimal" because of several factors.
Regardless of how strong or how weak a hurricane is, it is just that, a hurricane. We all know the does not use that in their forecast, but do use the label quite often. A minimal hurricane can and will do detructive things and cause death and destruction. So what is minimal about that.
Also, when forecasters get on the air to report a possible tornado, they don't warn people that an F1, or F5 is coming their way. Regardless of the size, we all know the destructive capability a tornado can do, even if it's an F1 or F5. Obviously, an F5 will cause catastrophic damage as well as a CAT5. But lower on the scale are descriptions of what to expect with a storm by CAT or Fugita scale. I believe people get caught up in the strength of a patricular system, then they modify what they are going to do. If was a "minimal" hurricane when it hit FLA, and the lower keys, then why was there so much destruction and deaths caused by such a "minimal" storm. My thoughts are the more labels we add to a strom, people will and do nothing, to try to escape the storm that is approaching. Then why does the Weather Channel and Mets put out a warning that a tornado is coming, and to take shelter immediately, because they know the damage associated with it. Again, F1 or F5 CAT1 or CAT 5 doesn't make a difference to me, it is still a "HURRICANE".
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