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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
90E in the eastpac
      #65181 - Sun May 14 2006 03:44 PM

Invest just went up on the NRL web site.

This was from the last discussion (1605Z). They must have liked what they see now. The last quikscat I looked at some hours ago it did look more symmetric.

LOW NEAR 9N99W...

LARGE CONVECTIVE BLOW-UP BEGAN AROUND 00Z LAST NIGHT AND WAS FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND THE S/SE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY CREATED A NEARLY CIRCULAR 180 NM WIDE EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD BUT MORE RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS BROKEN UP INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS ALIGNED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AND S OF THE CENTER. A 1252Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SINCE IT HAS NOT YET DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ...BUT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE CIRCULAR AND COMPACT. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT DIED OFF LIKE IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE ITCZ FOR RELATED CONVECTION.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 64
Re: 90E in the eastpac [Re: Margie]
      #65183 - Sun May 14 2006 03:52 PM

FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page

90E.INVEST 14 MAY 2006 1845Z

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 64
Re: 90E in the eastpac [Re: Spoken]
      #65189 - Sun May 14 2006 09:45 PM

ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE FROM 90W-105W ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A 1007 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 9N98W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT REMAINS DISORGANIZED. AS SUCH...IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
(there's more at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/142130.shtml? )

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
(there's more at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl.html )

It looks like the following composite is possibly going to be phased out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-ir4-loop.html

So here's another link for use as the low moves westward.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/loop-avn.html
(there's more at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac.html )

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 90E in the eastpac [Re: Spoken]
      #65209 - Mon May 15 2006 02:34 PM

I thought it would be fun and interesting to post the first eastpac TWO, as it contains a list of names for the season and other information. At least I think it's the first one, because I didn't check earlier today.

One of my favorite names is on the list - Emilia. I thought it was funny that someone decided you might need help figuring out how to pronouce it! (my grandmother's name was Emilie - German for Emily -- but I've always liked the Spanish/Italian variant).

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151629
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT MON MAY 15 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2006 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION
----------------------
ALETTA A LET- A
BUD
CARLOTTA
DANIEL
EMILIA EH MI- LI YA
FABIO FAH- BEE O
GILMA
HECTOR
ILEANA EEL EE AH- NAH
JOHN
KRISTY
LANE
MIRIAM
NORMAN
OLIVIA
PAUL
ROSA
SERGIO SEHR- HEE OH
TARA
VICENTE VEE CEN- TAY
WILLA
XAVIER EX ZAY- VIER
YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
ZEKE

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...IS ISSUED FOUR TIMES A DAY...AT 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM AND 10 PM PACIFIC TIME. IT BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM FORMATION.

A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG... FORMATIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WOPZ41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAEP.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...AND THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE ALSO ISSUED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES THREATENING LAND AREAS. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...OF WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADERS WTPZ61 KNHC THROUGH WTPZ65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP.


FORECASTER BEVEN

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