Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Doesn't say on the except that it appears to have become better organized. It's off the Invest page, but there is a TC Formation Alert for the area.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well 2 areas or 3 really are somewhat worth watching..but nothing to a point of a hurricane or strong tropical storm for the next couple of days. 1st area is coming towards the lessar antilles shows a very small circulation down more near 11.5N and 58W...recon going in should find a circulation but there might a 2nd weak 1 more inline with the midlevel circulation near 13N and 58W. 50-50 chance on a upgrade...I dont know cause we need to recon report. It should stay on a west path thru its lifetime unless someway it really strengthens...then it might get steered more NW towards the Yucitan by Saturday.
Meanwhile 2nd area is a trough coming down in the N GOM... this could develop a small weak low and drift N back towards LA,MS but development will be slow if any at all.
Finally 3rd and I feel the best shot of a threat would be the same system above but having another low pressure form off SC later by Thurs or Friday. With a ridge over the SE...trough over the NW atlantic down to 70W...anything that develops would move SSW then W towards the Bahamas and east florida by Sunday into next week. I give this the better chance of a tropical system (if develops) of making a U.S. landfall if any.
scottsvb
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Quick links to the buoys in the area. The pressure is falling in the area that RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS are going to.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41100
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TVSV.html
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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scotts,
In case you hadn't derived your South Carolina prediction from it, the WRF is the model that goes along with what you were saying.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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nah..Im more inline with the ...I dont like to use the WRF. I think a ridge will build in from the SE US and take if anything there..S then W next week. Its a 1 of 3 chance.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
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so since 2:05pm discussion is out and says nothing about TD 4 does that mean recon didn't find a LLC or winds to support a TD and 99l is still just a wave right?
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W.D. Duncan
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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recon isnt done with the system yet...wont be until 4ish...and its up to the .
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Recon estimated the surface winds at 40 knots with an extrapolated pressure of 1002 mbs.
EDIT: Disregard this post. The site appears to have a glitch under the Recon Info link.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Wed Aug 01 2007 02:33 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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wish they would fix that link.. i almost got excited too
pressures are low, not super low.. but low.. winds not strong enough but why is invest down?
is that a good sign or bad?
nrl...
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Invest might not be on but wouldnt say that was a bad thing. The recon flight has taken / is taking place, so must have some concern. Also, SSD have given the system TNumbers of T1.0/T1.5 as of 1745UTC. Satellite imagery shows a relatively weak, but somewhat organised system too, with definite circulation. Just have to wait and see if recon can close of a centre.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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Ok so what is the real pressure reading? they are saying it's 1002 mb over on wunderground but is this correct or wrong? The guest blogger on Dr. M's site is also saying there's evidence to support a closed circulation at the surface is this alos right or wrong?
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W.D. Duncan
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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According to http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/station/KNHC/URNT15.KNHC the lowest pressure so far from recon is 1010.7 mb. The highest winds so far has been 14K and this was on the 23rd observation. web page
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Thats a High Density Ob, and is only representative of 10 minutes data, not the entire recon flight. However, these obs do provide some pretty good detail on the disturbance.
EDIT: As an example, the last batch of data from 1910 - 1920Z shows the aircraft is moving NE away from Trinidad and Tobago, and as it heads closer to the apparent centre, the extrapolated pressure is gradually dropping - down to 1010.3 mb at the last entry.
1930z - Pressure down to 1009.8 according to the latest HDOB, as the aircraft heads towards Barbados
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
Edited by Rich B (Wed Aug 01 2007 03:35 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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With all due respect to 99L, I have grown -much- more concerned with the feature in the GOM
INVEST .
By all accounts, 99L is "almost there" - or even there if the hunters can close off a low and find at least a feeble warm core before flying out of it. However, it's still approaching the eastern Caribbean to encounter a not ideal region of fairly dry air.
On the other hand, our new Invest in the NE GOM is enjoying abundant water vapor and low shear. At the very least, a mid-level coc is now forming. (Link to the RGB enhanced loop above). This feature is land-locked. At the very least, someone is going to get tropical cyclone-like conditions.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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I'm looking at the GOM too and it does look interesting. It looks to me that what ever it is or becomes will move either east or northest? Or, am I reading it wrong.
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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I think it is re-organizing and should in my opinion, blow up tonight with a COC. So recon should be a go. About the GOM disturbance? Some call it 90L but it really isn't, not even a low yet but I am seeing some turning in the middle of it. That too will be interesting to see if it blows up tonight and gains an invest tag. So basically, tonight is going to be very interesting, stay tuned and watch for blow ups on both the systems.
Off topic material removed
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 01 2007 06:46 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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It is looking rather dismal now on SSD. I doubt it will make TD before entering the gulf. The question now is: does it go into the gulf or across South America? If the former, it still has a chance to do something.
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